Big Yue Futures: Cotton Aftermarket "Soft"

New cotton in early September store up Since its inception, nearly 20 days to the end of the month, storage and retention Zero turnover Records. The first transaction did not take place until the National Day holiday, and the turnover of 90 tons was far from that of the 24300 tons. In addition, in addition to the complexity of cotton picking and processing, the shortage of cotton for the short time in the market, the decline in cotton prices and the strong sentiment of cotton farmers are also important factors.

　　 Macroeconomic worries and internal dangers

Since September, the European debt crisis has continued. spread 。 The Greek crisis was temporarily alleviated by the expansion of the European financial stability fund. The sovereign credit rating of Spain and Italy was further lowered, raising fears of a new financial crisis. The downgrading of rating agencies, disagreement among European leaders, and discussions on joint rescue packages, such as good or bad news, continue to impact the fragile nerves in global financial markets.

From the domestic situation, although the problem of credit tension has caused a considerable number of enterprises operating difficulties, but domestic inflation pressure is still too large. CPI data will be released in the 3 quarter of this year, becoming the focus of market attention. Market is generally expected in September. CPI Will continue to maintain a high above 6%, so tight policy expectations are hard to relax.

　　 Fundamental support is yet to be tested.

Recently, affected by the turbulent international economic situation, commodity prices have dropped, and international cotton prices have dropped further. Around 100 cent fluctuation, the price of imported cotton has also dropped. Compared with the advantage of domestic cotton spot price, the purchase quantity of imported cotton in domestic cotton enterprises has increased. Affected by this, the US cotton export data also improved significantly, the export contract rate in the past month is basically positive, a sweep of the first half since the sluggish.

In addition to the impact of increased imports of imported cotton, domestic consumption demand is also continuing to slump. Cotton spot prices continued to rebound and did not effectively improve sales of cotton yarn, price stabilization failed to effectively enhance the confidence of the potential field. Under the quotations of cotton price "roller coaster", textile enterprises have taken a huge risk. They dare not rush to hoard cotton, nor dare to pick up the long list. Influenced by factors such as the withdrawal of speculative capital and the reversal of supply and demand fundamentals, the current cotton prices have stabilized. However, there is no substantial change in the domestic consumer market, and the increase in textile enterprises' orders is limited. The actual growth of textile exports in August and the sluggish PMI data show that the development speed of the textile industry is slowing down. Most enterprises are still not optimistic about the market outlook. The wait and see atmosphere has not disappeared, and the new cotton is about to go public. It remains to be seen whether the basic strength of cotton is insufficient enough to reverse the decline.

"Kim Gu" market did not come as scheduled, the market for "silver ten" is also expected to be reduced. According to the market situation in the past years, October is the time when new cotton is listed on a large scale and cotton enterprises are concentrating on replenishment. Cotton prices often reach the high point in this year. However, in the case of no change in downstream consumer demand, the scale of enterprise replenishment and the pulling effect on cotton price remain to be tested.

Judging from the futures market, Zheng cotton's main contract volume and position are all reduced, and capital outflows continuously. In the case of weak demand, and under the background of State purchasing and storage policy, the fluctuation range of cotton prices will be restricted and narrowed. Therefore, the cotton market will fluctuate due to the influence of the external market environment, but the overall price is expected to be stable, and there will be no ups and downs.