Large Differences In Capital, PTA Futures Sharp Fluctuations

Last week, PTA futures trading was extremely active, prices fluctuated sharply, the main 1909 contract from the beginning of the week to a daily limit, the atmosphere of rapid cooling. Insiders said that from the basic point of view, PTA is still on the spot stage of tension, polyester polyester low inventory, high starting a better pattern. However, with the rapid rise of PTA prices, the processing fee has expanded rapidly, and the downstream has been weak and the profits are showing up. In addition, there are many uncertainties at present, and the fluctuation of PTA prices will increase in a short time.

Capital differences are bigger.

Last Friday trading day, PTA futures main contract 1909 days before the two day of trading, Wednesday rose from big to big, with 400 yuan / ton wide fluctuation in the market, Thursday down, the bull atmosphere cooled rapidly, Friday continued to fall, the price back to the previous level of the yen, the volume of intra day turnover exceeded 8 million hands once, and the fluctuation range was 5802-6612 yuan / ton, down 0.51%.

"PTA7 month supply and demand side is still good, polyester link low inventory state can maintain the device at a higher load level. But recently, as prices are rising rapidly, excessive profits and overdraft profits are causing emotional worries. At the same time, a large influx of capital has led to a continuous turnover. In addition, the circulated letters circulated during the period have become an important fuse to trigger the turning of the market, but in the final analysis, it is a rational return from the irrational rise of the fundamentals of the market. Under the premise that the cost side may be dragged down and the terminal consumption has not been followed up in time, the PTA futures bull carnival is over the moon. Pang Chunyan, senior analyst of China investment and Anxin futures.

From the point of view of PTA and polyester, Pang Chunyan said that in June, the domestic PTA device coincide with "stop" for some reason, resulting in a decrease in monthly output of PTA and a more than 20 thousand ton shortage. 7 monthly Fuhua 4 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant was identified at the beginning of the month, mainly due to its upstream PX unit maintenance, downstream PTA raw material supply. According to the current news, its PX device stopped in June 20th, plans to overhaul for 40 days, then the restart time should be at the end of July, so the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA device will be restarted at the end of July. So if other devices do not stop, PTA will be supplied at about 3800000 tons in July. At the same time, the downstream polyester operating rate reached over 92% at the end of June, but at present, the stock level of polyester plant is generally low, and the device is still likely to maintain production. But because of the sharp fluctuation of PTA price and the obvious decline of sales, some factories have cut down production plan, so the overall load of polyester can be reduced.

"Theoretically, when the polyester load is kept above 90%, if other PTA devices are not overhauled, PTA will go to the library slightly. As a result, the PTA and polyester links were still healthy in July, but the PTA processing fee expanded to 2400 yuan / ton level, far exceeding market expectations, and continued bullish space was limited. In addition, PTA futures trading volume and growing positions are also accumulating risks from the capital side. Pang Chunyan said.

Short term price adjustment is hard to avoid

From the upstream raw materials and terminal consumption perspective, Pang Chunyan introduced that when the Hengli PX plant was put into operation, the PX price dropped sharply, and the PX- naphtha oil price difference was rapidly compressed until loss. But after that, due to a large number of equipment maintenance, PX prices were supported and profits were restored. Now the PX- naphtha price difference is near $330 / ton. It is reported that Sinochem Hong run 800 thousand tons PX will be put into operation in July, Hainan refinery 1 million tons, Brunei Brunei 1 million 500 thousand tons new capacity will be put into operation in 8-9 months, PX will face a new round of production pressure, so the PTA price will be dragged down, as one of the potential bad profits.

In addition, the terminal weaving enterprises began to collect the bottom from the end of May. By the end of June, the polyester plant's Polyester stock had been moved to the weaving factory, mainly due to the low price of polyester. It is understood that the raw materials for downstream bombs and weaving mills are less than half a month, and more than 1 months or more. At the same time, the inventory of grey fabrics in weaving factories in Wujiang and Haining exceeds the same level in the previous two years. Downstream enterprises expected to ease the international trade situation, there will be concentrated export orders. As prices continue to rise, orders will also be issued in the 3 quarter, but at present, the order situation is not expected to develop. A large amount of raw materials and finished products inventory is an important risk in downstream weaving and weaving.

In view of the above analysis, Pang Chunyan said: "after the market, PTA price adjustment is difficult to avoid, but supply and demand in July is still good, so it is not expected to continue to fall, the adjustment to continue to maintain a strong possibility of strong shocks. In the 4 quarter, with the commissioning of the new PTA plant, processing fees will be gradually reduced, and PTA will usher in a new round of centralized production cycle. "

CITIC construction investment futures analyst Li Yanjie said that as the current device maintenance plan has not been completely canceled, so there is still expected late maintenance, PTA prices fell equally limited space, it is expected that short-term PTA will continue to oscillate operation, the current uncertainties are more, affected by the news in a short period of time, prices may fluctuate significantly.