PTA, Polyester Filament Continuous Rise Is Speculation? 5 Ways To Stir Up Raw Materials

Recently, with the good news such as the resumption of Sino US trade negotiations, the polyester industry chain, whether PTA, PX or polyester filament, has ushered in a substantial increase.

In July 1st, PTA futures main trading, polyester filament prices rose 200-400 yuan / ton.

In July 2nd, the main force of PTA futures continued to keep trading, and the price of polyester filament increased by 100-300 yuan / ton.

But at the same time, cloth bosses have said that their business has not changed much before, and the reason for the increase in raw material prices is speculation.

5 methods of raw material speculation

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Stir up news

Stir fry news is the most common means of speculation. With the meeting between heads of state of China and the United States, textile enterprises generally say that their orders have not changed significantly since the early stage, and the number of orders is still very small, but the price of polyester raw materials has risen.

In addition to some international news, some social news or unexpected events can cause a wave of market volatility. For example, the news of the explosion of Taiwan's Formosa Plastics PX device in April 8th resulted in a sharp increase in the products in the polyester industry chain in a short period of time.

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Frying oil prices

As the raw material of polyester industry chain, international oil price will naturally have a great impact on the price of polyester products.

I still remember last November when international oil prices fluctuated in a short period of time because of the OPEC production and the case of khuzi, and PTA futures were also trading several times.

Experience shows that every time the sharp rise in international oil prices almost leads to the rise of a wave of PTA, and the price of polyester filament will fluctuate to a great extent.

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Fried production and marketing

Production and marketing, inventory is also an important point of speculation. In normal terms, the production and sale of polyester factories is 100%. The average production and marketing is over 100%. On the second day, the raw materials will probably increase, so the price of polyester filament will continue to rise.

And how much inventory is related to the success rate of speculation, when the stock is at a low level, polyester raw material enterprises also have greater incentive to go up.

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Frying device

Pet, PTA, PX and other large installations need regular maintenance to maintain their safety and normal operation. During the overhaul of the plant, the reduction of production capacity and the change of the relationship between supply and demand of the product will cause a slight fluctuation in price, which is quite normal.

But now this situation is becoming more and more serious. Installation maintenance has become a means of speculation in some enterprises and institutions.

Take the PTA in early June to see that the PTA device will be overhauled for a while. Later, it is said that the maintenance will be postponed, and the final capacity will not change much. The price of PTA will rise a lot.

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Hard frying

There is also a way to be honest, manufacturers see goods basically do not worry about selling, do not play with you, you tell me that I want to raise prices, and then directly raise the price.

Remember the PX of July last year, and there was no sign at that time, so PX rose so inexplicably that the PTA and polyester filament went up like crazy.

In the future, as the volume of commodities is becoming more and more concentrated on leading enterprises, the phenomenon of hard frying may become more and more. No way, who call them "big guys"? Weaving enterprises can only shiver when they face price increases.

After the speculation, who will clean up the mess?

Follow suit is a more common behavior in business. Whether it is buying or selling raw materials, the expansion of water looms to the periphery is largely the result of following suit.

But in fact, such hype is very damaging to the market.

In the first half of last year, the difficult situation of "rotten cloth" such as spring Asian spinning, polyester taffeta and so on, made many weaving owners determined to expand the scale of production in the outlying areas, resulting in a very fast market in the first half of this year.

Last year, 7 and August polyester raw materials rose sharply, resulting in the weaving enterprises in the hands of the funds can be significantly reduced, so in the first half of this year when the market is not as expected, weaving enterprises' ability to resist risks has been greatly reduced, so there are so many cases of throwing goods on the market.

It can be said that speculation has overdrawn the present, but sacrificed the future.

But sometimes the market is so helpless. In the face of raw materials such as rigid demand products, when everyone is hyping, everyone is drunk. What's the use of waking up alone? Can you still buy it?

After a wave of speculation, the "big guys" have made the money, and the "mess" left behind must be borne by the whole market.