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Fujian Research Shows That Men'S Clothing Industry Is Healthy.

2012/2/8 11:43:00 40

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investment strategy

[brand clothing: Men's clothing is healthy, concerned about annual quotes.

Thousands of families during the Spring Festival (New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year)

A key

Monitoring the retail sales of clothing sales increased by 18.7%, and the sales growth of the brand clothing companies is quite similar.

Recent Fujian research shows that men's clothing company sold out in autumn and winter 2011 65%-70%, basically the same as in previous years, and some parts of the winter sales continued to continue, expect 2012, autumn and winter order growth can reach about 20%.

Pathfinder Jiaodong distributor research shows that: the company's terminal sales and inventory situation is good, extension and expansion to maintain high speed.

Maintain "Ql industry"

Function

It is a rule of thumb, but it is expected to be the time window for the annual investment layout.

This week we should pay attention to the performance bulletin and the annual report.

In 2011, the performance of the brand apparel sector grew pretty well, basically in line with expectations.

Among them, men's clothing company performance will slightly exceed expectations, expected to increase by 45%; home textile company is slightly lower than expected, but the growth rate is still expected to reach 40%-60%; leisure and outdoor industry materials only Semir clothing less than expected; women's wear and women's shoes industry in the industry of Lancy, basically meet the expected growth rate of up to 70%.

This week, we recommend nine shepherd kings, seven wolves and Pathfinder, and suggest that we pay more attention to the American state clothing that the annual report may exceed.

Processing: inventory continues to digest, but demand for replenishment is still weak.

In January 2012, PMI data showed that the boom of manufacturing enterprises was still weak, while raw materials and finished goods inventory continued to digest, but the export and new orders index continued to decline, indicating that the demand for replenishment was not strong.

The actual situation is also the same. Before the Spring Festival, due to the poor receipt, a considerable number of enterprises have extended their vacation time.

The performance of all processing and manufacturing companies to be released in 2011 will be worse than that in the first three quarters, with an average net profit growth of around 20%.

201201 textile exports are expected to grow negative year-on-year, while the company's growth prospects are expected.

Continue

Go down.

Due to the double pressure of volume and price, the performance of manufacturing companies in the first half of 2012 may not be optimistic.

Latest tracking

[Jomoo non tracking: equity incentive is expected to grow, healthy growth]

The company has suspended the stock option to plan for equity incentive.

Follow up: the company's performance in 2011 is expected to achieve expected growth, and all operations have effectively implemented the established strategy.

It is estimated that the proportion of upper garment in 2011 will be higher than that of trousers, and the expansion and expansion of the same store are expected to reach about 15%.

It is estimated that the selling rate of winter clothing in 2011 will be about 65%, although the stock of winter clothing has increased slightly, but winter in some areas.

continue

Sales are expected to reduce later inventory, while the company intensified efforts to help dealers digest inventory, we judged that the autumn and winter order growth in 2012 is still expected to reach 20%.

2012 annual revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 25% and 30% respectively, maintaining a forecast of 2011/12/13 EPS 0.90/1.18/1.40 yuan, with a target price of 29.50 yuan.

The current stock price is only 17 times that of PE in 2012, with a high margin of safety and a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: 1. franchised store expansion will test dealer's terminal operation capability; 2., expansion of Direct stores, the cost rate will increase risk; 3.2013 year corporate income tax rate will expire.

[Pathfinder dealer research: Sales and inventory are normal, extension and maintenance maintain high speed]

This week, the dealers in the Jiaodong area (Qingdao, Yantai, Weihai, etc.) were informed that there were 34 terminals in 2011 (4/30 stores in exclusive stores / shopping malls, 19 outlets), and about 37 million yuan in stock.

The 2009-2011 year growth of the dealer's composite growth rate was about 16% in the same store 60%.2011 years ago (the average passenger price dropped by about 10%), and the dynamic Treasury sales ratio was about 6:1 (outdoors inventory turnover was slow, this level was normal).

In January 2012, due to the early spring festival, the same store growth was slightly worse than the same period in 2011. However, 2012 is still more optimistic in the whole year, with 20 new stores planned, and the order amount increased by more than 60%.

The distributor's current situation is the rapid growth of the outdoor products industry and the comprehensive embodiment of the strong competitiveness of the Pathfinder brand in the local market.

maintain

Optimistic about the company's "extension expansion, scale advantage, management improvement" point of view.

It is estimated that EPS will be 0.40/0.65/0.99 yuan in 2011/12/13 and the target price will be 26 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: 1. the company does not accept the margin for the franchisee whose order amount exceeds the retail price 1 million yuan, and the execution of the futures contract is not completely mandatory; 2. if the company's distribution channel is still adjusted in 2012, it will have an impact on short-term sales; 3., the 2012 equity incentive plan is expected to amortize 11 million 210 thousand yuan, accounting for about 1% of the revenue.