The Central Bank Has Released Four Hundred Billion Of The Capital &Nbsp, And The Policy Has Loomed Wide Currency Tight Credit.

The latest statistics from the central bank show that in January 2012, the society

According to the reporter's understanding, loans increase little.

At the same time, the reduction of foreign currency loans in January reflects the weakening of the expectation of RMB appreciation. This weakening of expectations will also lead to a slowdown in capital inflows.

The main reason for the failure of other financing tools is the over strain of market funds.

At present, this tension has not yet been effectively improved, and interest rates in the interbank market rose sharply last Thursday and Friday (16 or 17).

The 7 day repo rate closed at 5.39% in February 17th, reaching 7% as high as it was before the Spring Festival.

In 2011, foreign exchange accounted for 2 trillion and 780 billion yuan.

At present, the market expects the new foreign exchange to be around 2 trillion yuan this year. The most pessimistic expectation is even as low as 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan.

If the central bank expects growth of around 14%, the M 2 in 2012 should increase by 11 trillion and 900 billion yuan.

If the new RMB loan is controlled at 8 trillion yuan this year, the assets of the derivative assets such as non-financial corporate bonds purchased by banks this year will exceed 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan.

But to expand the ability of bank's capital supply, the central bank must continuously reduce the deposit rate.

In order to shrink liquidity, control CPI and asset bubbles, since the beginning of 2010, the central bank has increased the statutory reserve requirement rate 12 times in a year and a half (from January 2010 to June 2011), and the largest bank has reached 21.5% at the highest level. This continuous quantity regulation has made the financial market shrink from "broad money tight credit" in 2010 to "tight money tight credit" in 2011.

Even if foreign exchange accounted for up to 2 trillion and 780 billion yuan last year, the M 2 growth rate fell from 19.7% at the end of 2010 to 13.6% at the end of 2011.

Moreover, since the fourth quarter of last year, domestic capital flows have been reversed, and foreign exchange has been in negative growth for 3 consecutive months.

The official 2012 capital inflow is also not optimistic. The central bank has judged that the total net inflow is maintained, but the total inflow will be significantly lower than the average in the past few years.

After the policy emphasized the fine tuning, the central bank started the first round of quantitative easing in December 5, 2011 and lowered the deposit rate by 0.5 percentage points.

Although the market generally expects that foreign exchange will resume growth in January this year, this figure will be far lower than the scale of 501 billion 647 million yuan in January last year. This may be one of the incentives for the central bank to reduce the deposit rate.

"This is a response to extreme liquidity and soaring interest rates on last Friday (17), which may indicate that foreign exchange is positive in January, but the amount can not offset the increase in fiscal deposits."

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told reporters in the economic reference daily (micro-blog).

The Noah Fund believes that the main purpose of the first year of the year is to ease the tension in the current market liquidity and improve the ability of banks to lend.

Monetary credit growth is expected to pick up in February.

This also shows that domestic policies have begun to fine tune pre adjustment in order to cope with the downward trend of the economic boom in 2012.

Senior Research Fellow of the Construction Bank, Zhao Qingming, an associate professor at the school of finance, University of International Business and Economics.

Told reporters that the current quasi deposit rate, first, the credit growth in January is far lower than expected, the two is foreign exchange, even if it is positive, but the increase may still be less, the third point is also the most important, the current economic outlook is not optimistic.

"The central bank will set this year's broad money supply M 2 growth target at around 14%, higher than the 13.6% increase of last year and 12.4% in January this year, which means there is still room for money growth."

Shen Jianguang, managing director and chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, judged that the frequency of the reserve ratio cut in the first half was 4 times, and the possibility of reducing interest rates in the short term was unlikely.

Yang Delong, chief strategist of the southern fund, said that CPI exceeded expectations in January, but the trend of inflation has already come into being. It is estimated that CPI will fall to less than 4% in February.

The main contradiction of the current economy is to prevent falling expectations. Policy easing is an inevitable choice.