PTA Cost Push Space Is Limited &Nbsp; Short Term Shocks Will Still Be Repeated.

Before the holiday, the PTA price of steady and steady progress continued uneventfully this week, and fell back to the nine thousand mark.

On Monday, the main contract TA205 opened at a low price of 9166 yuan / ton.

Although Wednesday's intraday high inflation, but also difficult to cross the previous high point, due to slow demand recovery triggered a negative mood in the market, long after the 9200 yuan / ton sharply reduced positions, so that the performance of the anti price volatility suddenly changed, PTA prices in the afternoon sharp down, and the next day to further expand the downtrend.

Friday,

Cost push is coming to an end.

The continued strength of crude oil and upstream raw materials PX has contributed to the significant role of cost support in promoting PTA prices. However, as the price of PTA rises, the role of cost support in the price cycle also loosen.

According to the recent data released by the US energy department, the increase in crude oil business inventories and gasoline, diesel, heating oil and other stocks, and the decrease in daily imports and consumption reflect the weakening of consumption.

Including the PX price, upward pressure is gradually emerging, and cost push is expected to continue to play a role in PTA prices.

Polyester stocks rebounded significantly

After the holiday, PTA downstream demand recovered slowly, polyester production and sales continued to slack, resulting in a marked rebound in inventory.

According to the PTA research center of Guotai Junan Futures on Thursday, the research on the cartridge and dyeing enterprises showed that the stock of polyester POY and FDY has risen to 15-20 days, and DIY stock has risen to 1 months or so. The downstream market generally shows that it is not optimistic about the demand recovery before the end of February.

Comprehensive cost pressure and downstream demand, inventory and other factors, resulting in polyester industry gradually become the most difficult PTA industry chain.

Short term shocks are still repeated.

Polyester stocks are high and terminal demand is shrinking, which has become a major factor in the downward adjustment of PTA price.

However, the adjustment of PTA cost and short term closing price should be the opportunity to buy more short lines.

Technically, the main contract is supported by 8800 points and one line, and if it is located near the price, it should be an ideal buying price.

It is very likely that the contract will return to more than 9000 in May, but it will depend on the situation of terminal orders after March.

According to the central line, after the demand is released, the cost driven growth will probably fail, and the risk of downward adjustment of PTA will be greater.