Foreign Trade Situation Is Grim &Nbsp, The Textile Industry Will Become A Bright Spot.

Data show that China's exports to the United States in 2009 amounted to 426 million 522 thousand and 400 meters, which was basically the same as that in the same period in 2008. In 2009, China exported 6 billion 640 million 285 thousand and 100 sets of clothing to the United States, an increase of 14.15% over the same period in 2008.

The foreign trade data of January this year show that China's foreign trade situation is not optimistic.

The Chinese government attaches great importance to it, and experts and scholars have also paid great attention to it.

Many experts and analysts said that from a year-round perspective, China may face more complicated foreign trade situations.

Whether the global economy is improving is still complicated, and the appreciation of the renminbi is much more.

Situation overview

Since the second half of last year, foreign trade has declined significantly.

Last month, both import and export data showed negative growth.

Cheng Manjiang, a macroeconomic strategist at Bank of China, believes that China's import and export growth or further slowdown this year.

"According to our latest forecast, the growth rate of exports and imports in 2012 is 8% and 9.2% respectively.

The trade surplus in 2012 is expected to shrink from $155 billion in 2011 to $145 billion.

In fact, the Minister of Commerce Chen Deming pointed out in the course of conducting business research in Anhui in from February 9th to 11th: "since the second half of last year, the downward trend of China's foreign trade is more obvious.

In January this year, the growth rate of imports and exports both declined. Although this has seasonal factors, it also reflects the instability and uncertainty factors in the development of foreign trade. We should attach great importance to this trend.

Cheng Manjiang pointed out: "in recent months, the growth of most traditional commodities has continued to slow down.

Clothing and clothing accessories and footwear exports increased by 3.5% and 1.3% respectively in January, while the growth rates of these two products in 2011 1-12 were 18.3% and 17.1% respectively.

Over the same period, exports of travel items and bags increased by 7% after 32.9% growth in 2011. The growth rate of toy exports dropped sharply from 7.3% in 2011 to 4%.

In addition, capital goods exports also declined.

In January, exports of containers, automatic data processing equipment and components decreased by 49.9% and 2.6% respectively.

The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.1%, and the export of high-tech products decreased by 3.7%. In the 1-12 months last year, the export growth of these two products was 16.3% and 11.5%, respectively.

In addition to the sharp decline in China's export growth to the EU,

Specifically, in January, China's exports to Japan, South Korea and ASEAN increased by 6.1%, 9.2% and 1.1% respectively, compared with 22.5%, 20.6% and 23.1% in the 1-12 months of last year.

Over the same period, exports to Australia and Russia increased by 11% and 8.2% respectively, compared with 24.6% and 31.4% in the 1-12 months of last year.

A brokerage analyst at Shanghai told Business Daily reporters: "the current foreign trade situation is not very optimistic. At the same time, the trade surplus is higher than the market expectation, and the pressure of RMB appreciation is still in existence. These factors are not conducive to exports, and will also have a certain impact on China's economy.

China's foreign trade situation is grim or monetary policy will be further relaxed, in order to ease the financial pressure on enterprises.

"China's monetary policy has some policy adjustment space, but the government also needs to intensify domestic demand stimulation so as to raise the consumption level of the residents."

The analysts said.

Major difficulties

Europe's debt exports to Europe fell sharply

As China's largest export market, the EU has suffered an unprecedented attack on the European debt crisis, and China's export to Europe is becoming more and more serious.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce, as China's largest export market, the European Union accounts for nearly 1/6 of China's export market. But last year, China's exports to the EU increased by less than an average of nearly 6 percentage points. In January, exports to the EU continued to decline, reaching 3.2%, of which exports to Germany decreased by 6.3% and exports to Italy decreased by 28.2%.

The decline in export growth to the EU has obviously delayed the whole export.

The latest data released by the customs further show that the European debt crisis has had a significant impact on China's export to the EU.

Data show that China's exports to Europe in 2011 amounted to US $356 billion 20 million, an increase of 14.4%, which is 5.9 percentage points lower than the overall growth rate of China's exports over the same period, of which 9-12 months, the monthly growth rate of China's exports to Europe for 4 consecutive months was only a single digit growth.

In January this year, exports to Europe amounted to 28 billion 230 million US dollars, down 3.2%, compared with the same period, the overall decline in China's exports reached 2.7 percentage points.

In January, the total value of imports and exports of the European Union decreased by 7.1%, accounting for 15.7% of the total value of China's foreign trade in the same period of 42 billion 680 million.

Insiders said that the European debt crisis caused the EU's domestic demand to be weak, and import demand continued to decline, thus making the EU's demand for China's goods significantly slowed down, and China's export growth to Europe.

It is worth noting that customs data show that last year, the EU remained China's largest trading partner and replaced Japan as China's largest source of imports.

Customs statistics show that China's imports from Europe are making efforts, and imports of automobiles and other varieties have increased significantly.

In 2011, China imported $211 billion 170 million from Europe, an increase of 25.4%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than that of China's imports during the same period.

Among them, 25 billion 180 million US dollars of imported cars, a substantial increase of 48.7%; metal processing machine tool 4 billion 100 million US dollars, an increase of 40.2%.

In January this year, imports from Europe amounted to 14 billion 450 million US dollars, a decrease of 13.9%, less than 1.4 percentage points of the total decline in China's imports over the same period.

Of which $2 billion 520 million of imported cars, still a substantial increase of 43.1%.

Previously, the WTO's forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2011 dropped from 6.5% to 5.8%.

Compared with other economies, the EU's external trade is declining.

Especially after a long period of financial crisis, the situation of China's rapid export growth to Europe is difficult to reproduce. In 2012, China's exports to the EU will face a more severe test.

Three factors restrict exports to Europe.

In the interview, Business Daily reporters learned that the three major factors restricting China's exports to Europe still exist, namely, the European economic recession, the further depreciation of the euro and the rise of European trade protectionism.

Therefore, for China's export enterprises, the future trade with Europe is still not optimistic.

The economic contraction of the EU's economic data released in February 15th showed that the GDP of the fourth quarter of the euro area has shrunk for the first time since the second quarter of 2009, and 5 member countries have confirmed that they are entering a technical recession.

The 5 countries, including Italy, Holland, Belgium, Czech and Portugal, have contracted for the two consecutive quarter, which means that they have fallen into recession, and the fourth quarter has contracted 0.7%.

The analysis points out that the euro zone has "one foot in the recession", the overall contraction, reflecting the regional debt crisis warming, unstable factors and financial pressure has not been eliminated. Tightening measures or continuing to slow down the main burden of economic growth in various countries, or the euro zone has entered a moderate recession.

In addition, the European Union's executive board said on the same day that 12 EU Member States, including Italy, Spain, Britain and France, are experiencing serious economic imbalances, which are vulnerable to market shocks and global economic fluctuations.

In the EU's warning list, France is one of the largest member countries in the world with the largest decline in export market share in recent years, and wage increases have made it less competitive.

Public debt in Italy, which is deeply troubled by the European debt crisis, remains a cause for concern. At present, Italy's debt is equivalent to 120% of gross national product (GDP), and economic growth remains weak.

There are also many economic problems in the UK outside the euro zone. Despite the sharp depreciation of the pound, the UK's export market share is still declining, and the high level of private sector debt is also worrying.

The European Commission believes that housing prices may still fall further due to high housing prices and heavy household debts.

The further depreciation of the euro and the decline of the euro also devalued the euro area currency.

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate between the euro and the renminbi is like a roller coaster.

After the outbreak of the European debt crisis, market funds went to the US dollar to seek refuge, and the euro fell again.

By now, the depreciation rate is almost 20%.

The devaluation of the euro is close to 20%.

During the Canton Fair last year, a survey conducted by the Chinese mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce on 296 enterprises showed that although the average paction price of the mechanical and electrical products increased by 8%, the average cost increased by 10% due to the increase of raw materials and labor prices, resulting in a 1% decrease in the recent profits compared with the same period last year.

Against this background, the depreciation of the euro has become a more severe test for the profit level of electromechanical products.

The third major factor that restricts China's export to Europe is the rise of trade protectionism in the EU.

In 2011, the EU launched 5 trade relief surveys on Chinese goods, with a decrease in volume compared with 2010, but the practice has been constantly renovated.

In May 2011, the EU first imposed a countervailing duty on China's products (coated paper). In September, it announced the 5 year punitive tariffs on China's ceramic tiles under the name of "protecting EU manufacturers from the price reduction competition of Chinese exporters", and issued a new tire label law, requiring that all new cars, trucks and bus tires sold in Europe must be marked with new energy signs since November 1, 2012.

Since the European Union announced the new foreign trade policy in late 2010, the trend of trade protectionism in China has been increasing at the policy level.

Policy response

Steady foreign trade measures are more encouraging than restrictive.

"Obviously, the shrinking demand in Europe, the devaluation of the euro area and the rise of trade protectionism have made China's export to Europe suffer heavy losses, and recently, how to deal with the declining trend of foreign trade has also become an important task of the relevant departments."

Insiders pointed out that the analysis.

In early February of this year, when commerce minister Chen Deming conducted business research in Anhui, he said that in accordance with the spirit of the central economic work conference, we should grasp the general keynote of "steady progress and strive for progress", closely around the three tasks of "steady growth, restructuring and promoting balance" to achieve stable and rapid development of foreign trade.

Chen Deming stressed the need to maintain stability in foreign trade policies.

He said that when Premier Wen Jiabao visited Guangzhou in recent days, he pointed out that the policy of import and export should generally remain stable. If it is to be adjusted, it should be more encouraging than restrictive.

The Ministry of commerce is working with relevant departments to study policies and measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade. It supports foreign trade enterprises from relieving the pressure of enterprise funds, increasing the support of fiscal and taxation policies, improving the export credit risk protection mechanism, maintaining the basic stability of exchange rate, coping with trade friction and improving trade facilitation level. At the same time, it will also pay more attention to supporting the development of small and medium enterprises.

Chen Deming pointed out that we should continue to promote structural adjustment and pformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

It is necessary to support enterprises to gradually extend to the high end of the industrial chain by increasing R & D efforts, cultivating their own brands and improving marketing network, so as to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises and create new advantages in foreign trade competition.

While consolidating the traditional market, we should vigorously explore new markets and accelerate the development of foreign trade in the central and western regions while promoting the pformation and upgrading of the eastern region.

Chen Deming also pointed out that we should continue to adhere to the policy of actively expanding imports and promote the balanced development of foreign trade.

At a regular press conference held at the 16 commerce department, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, also pointed out that the Ministry of commerce is working with relevant departments to study specific policies and measures to maintain stable growth of foreign trade, and support enterprises to tide over difficulties through alleviating the pressure of enterprise funds, lightening the burden of enterprises, helping enterprises cope with trade frictions, improving the safeguard mechanism of export credit risks and improving the level of trade facilitation.

At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to adhere to the policy of actively expanding imports and strive to promote balanced development of foreign trade.

In addition, "the Ministry of Commerce plans to convene the national import and export working conference in Jiangxi next week, that is, 20-21 February, to study and deploy the next step of steady growth, restructuring and promoting balance."

Shen Danyang said.

Shen Danyang also said that the Ministry of Commerce will further strengthen the operation of foreign trade, especially the monitoring and early warning of the export of dominant products and labor-intensive products, and analyze the existing problems in terms of industries and commodities, and take effective measures to help enterprises solve practical difficulties and create favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade.

At the same time, we should guide and help.

Highlights flash

I stepped up my efforts to solve the European debt problem.

In response to China's declining growth in exports to Europe, the Chinese authorities are also making efforts to improve the euro area economy, and how China will further help Europe in deep trouble has become one of the focus of attention in the recent EU China leaders meeting.

When the earlier German Chancellor Merkel visited China, Premier Wen Jiabao had said that the Chinese authorities concerned were studying and assessing the European debt problem through the specific ways of China's contribution through the IMF and through the European financial stability fund and the European stability mechanism.

In February 14th, van Rompuy introduced China's recent progress and efforts to the eurozone, and made a commitment by EU leaders to solve the debt crisis. Premier Wen Jiabao said in a subsequent press conference that China has confidence in the euro and the European economy, "China has already made preparations to increase its participation in solving the European debt crisis".

In February 15th, Zhou Xiaochuan also said in the opening ceremony of the euro exhibition that China is willing to increase its participation in solving the European debt problem through the European financial stability fund and other mechanisms, hoping that the euro area and the European Union will provide more attractive investment products.

Some analysts believe that this Sino EU summit has achieved positive results, established the keynote of future Sino EU cooperation, and Europe has made a commitment to solve the debt crisis, and China has again conveyed a clear signal of support and willingness to help Europe.

Experts predict that the future economic and trade relations between China and Europe will be more closely affected by many factors such as the acceleration of investment between China and Europe and the easing of the EU's attitude towards China's market economy status.

US economic recovery is good for China's exports

The growth rate of the total value of imports from the United States is closely related to the US economic growth. The two sets of data basically show the same trend.

Zhou Jintao, chief strategist of CITIC, said: "after 2000, despite the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, despite the fact that the United States has been making various trade frictions, the two sets of data are not only consistent but also changing.

If the US economy grows faster, then China's exports to the United States will also rise. "

In 2011, the total growth rate of imports from the United States in China is: the annual growth rate is 9.42%, the compound growth rate of three years is 5.74%, the compound growth rate of five is 6.77%, and the compound growth rate of seven is 10.65%.

Judging from the US economic situation, the US stock cycle has bottomed out in the three quarter of 2011, and it has continued to pull up the economy.

Zhou Jintao believes that this kind of pull will last for more than four quarters in theory, but short term operation will easily be affected by external forces.

In the 3-5 month of 2012, the United States will be hit (this impact comes from a variety of factors, including the relationship between inventory and consumption, the tax reduction policy expires, high oil prices, etc.), and the economy may face short-term adjustment. Therefore, the role of inventory investment in the first half of 2012 will be less than that of the four quarter of 2011.

But after that, the US economy will enter a stage of steady recovery.

On the whole, inventory investment is positive.

The latest US data also show that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years.

On the other hand, the number of new housing starts has also risen.

All of these indicate that the US economy remains recovering at the beginning of 2012, thereby easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to further implement the stimulus measures.

Nanov, an analyst at naloft economic consulting company in Pennsylvania, said the data on new housing starts and unemployment benefits applications have made people believe that the US economy will accelerate growth.

The Fed also predicts that the US economy will grow moderately in 2012, and inflation will not increase too much.

In terms of specific industries, Zhou Jintao pointed out that at present, heavy equipment manufacturing and steel industry show a very high degree of prosperity.

From the Fed's regional report, production capacity in Chicago, Saint Louis and Minneapolis has begun to restrict production.

Industry analysis

19 industries are expected to benefit from the US recovery.

The US economic recovery will undoubtedly boost China's export to the US, but which industries can get the most benefits from the US recovery?

According to Zhou Jintao analysis, "attractive industries should have at least two characteristics: large import amount and faster compound growth rate in recent years".

Through studying the SITC three level classification industry, Zhou Jintao screened out 19 industries that may benefit from: automatic data processing machinery, telecommunications equipment, electronic equipment and machinery, hot electron cathode and cold cathode, auto parts, plumbing water valve, heating and cooling equipment, measuring instrument, cloth making clothing, rotary motor, optical products, hand tools, water pumps, fresh fish or frozen fish, special machinery, men's coat, internal combustion engine and parts, mineral products, pmission rod and shaft.

"Other factors need to be considered in the industry's benefit."

Zhou Jintao warned that the increase in import demand in the US will also depend on the capacity and capacity expansion of the industry itself.

In addition, it is necessary to point out that China's labor costs continue to rise, leading to many manufacturing enterprises in the United States are returning to the United States, and some are turning to Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries.

In response, an analyst told an interview with a Commercial Daily reporter that "the recovery of the US economy is still good for China's low-end manufacturing industry, but it is limited.

Because the return of US manufacturing enterprises means that the export of China's processing trade may be further reduced, and in the future, China's exports to the US may be on the export of services.

Textile industry's export orders will not shrink this year.

Kong Jun, a researcher at CIC's textile and garment industry, said: "orders for textile and clothing will not be a big problem in 2012, but price factors will lead to a year-on-year decline in exports."

Kong Jun pointed out that even in the financial crisis period, the main products of domestic textile and clothing still maintained a large volume of exports, and the volume did not decrease. Therefore, the volume of orders for domestic exports will not shrink much in the future, but the prices of export products will decline when the prices of raw materials return.

Textile "textiles, because China's textile industry has a complete and advanced industrial chain, the production capacity of medium and high grade garments and textile fabrics is strong. Over the years, European and American brand clothing enterprises have imported large quantities of fabric from China, and then processed into garments."

Kong Jun analysis shows.

According to the textile department of the US Department of Commerce, the export volume of cloth products exported to the United States in the first 11 months of 2009 was 1 billion 716 million 300 thousand square meters, with a market share of 25.44%.

In addition, other textile fabrics, such as yarn and fiber, are also far ahead of the market share in Europe and America.

As the clothing of domestic exports is still in the middle and low grade in Europe, America and other countries, the price is the biggest advantage of China's garment export (although the price is raised, but the foreign dealers still have greater profits).

Cheap and fine Chinese clothing is still the favorite of the European and American residents. Although the sale of international big clothing has shrunk dramatically, the middle and low grade clothing such as supermarkets still shows strong vitality.

According to the textile department of the US Department of Commerce, the export of clothing products to the United States in November 2009 was 7 billion 961 million 900 thousand square meters, an increase of 9.52% compared with 2008. The market share of the United States was 40.60%, and the market share increased by 6.12 percentage points over the previous year.

Data show that China in 2009

On the other hand, in the clothing and textile industry, due to the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises withdrawing, the disorderly competition will be improved. Therefore, Kong Jun believes that in the future, we should focus on the leading enterprises in various sub sectors of the textile industry. The listed companies that are worthy of attention include Lu Tai A (000726), Huamao share (000850), and Huafu color spinning (002042).