Casual Wear Semir Brand Sales Are Not Optimistic.

Semir's performance in 11 years is slightly lower than expected: in 2011, the company's revenue grew by 7 billion 760 million, an increase of 23.44% over the same period, with a net profit of 1 billion 206 million, an increase of 20.58%, and EPS of 1.8 yuan.

There are three main reasons for the growth of performance from high speed growth to stable growth. One of the main reasons is that the leisure wear industry is facing an overall de stocking pressure in 2011. The second is the warm winter in 11 years, which makes the winter wear of casual wear uneasy. Third, the casual wear of the company is not enough because of its fashionable style.

Four seasons sales slowed: the single quarter revenue growth in the four quarter of 2011 were 30.2%, 44.4%, 22.5% and 11.4% respectively. The single season net profit growth rate was 27.8%, 31.1%, 22.9% and 10.6% respectively.

It can be seen that the warm weather in the fourth quarter has a more serious impact on the company.

In the two categories of casual wear and children's clothing,

The expansion of stores in the whole year is lower than expected: as the rent rises too fast and the location of high-quality shops is hard to find, the number of new outlets is lower than expected.

In the 11 year, children's wear stores were slightly better, with an estimated 700 new additions a year, compared with less than 700 new shops for casual wear.

The gross profit margin of the fourth quarter is estimated to decline: 2011Q3, the gross profit margin of the company is 36.44%.

Fourth quarter leisure wear industry overall promotional efforts are greater, the terminal has a lot of 5-6 fold discount, the company has also increased.

The cost rate has increased: as the headquarters moved from Wenzhou to Shanghai in 2011, there has been a large increase in personnel resettlement and other related expenses. Meanwhile, the related expenses of the company listing and the marketing expenses of the stores have also increased. Therefore, we estimate that the annual cost rate is about 2.6% higher than that in 2010.

Earnings forecast: it is estimated that in the 12-13 years EPS is 2.17 yuan and 2.58 yuan respectively. The leading position of the company in the children's wear industry is still not shaken. After a few years of high growth, casual wear also needs a period of adjustment.