Limited Support For New Cotton Storage Policy

On Monday, influenced by the cotton export ban in India, Zheng cotton quickly increased its position in the afternoon.

However, the domestic textile enterprises responded slightly dull, because most of the India cotton that had been signed had already completed the shipment. Some unfinished shipping enterprises also indicated that they would consider replacing India cotton with American cotton.

In addition, after the opening positions also show that the main bearer will be stronger.

I believe that after the news of the new cotton purchase and storage price rises, cotton market will run out in the short term.

Although the India cotton export ban may be hyped up in the short term, the late dumping and quota policy may put Zheng cotton in a vulnerable stage.

The policy of purchasing and storage is in good condition.

In March 1st, the relevant state departments issued the "

Downstream consumption is hard to see.

From the perspective of demand, on the one hand, the export prospect is worrying.

In January 2012, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.46% over the same period last year, the first negative growth since the financial crisis.

At present, China's cotton price is far higher than the international cotton price, and it will also face a more severe test for the future domestic textile export situation.

On the other hand, domestic demand for clothing is also unsatisfactory.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in January 2012, the volume of clothing sales of the 100 major large-scale retail enterprises decreased by 0.18% compared to the same period last year.

Although the average unit price of clothing products has dropped by 6.5% over the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in the unit price has not led to a rise in retail sales. The continued downturn in consumption may bring pressure on the future trend of Zheng cotton.

After the announcement of the new cotton storage policy, market concerns will be shifted to quota and reserve policy.

At present, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is huge, and the quota price of 1% imported cotton has been fry to 2200 - 2500 yuan / ton.

Nevertheless, the cost of imported cotton is still lower than domestic cotton prices.

Once the tariff quotas are issued later, imported cotton will have a certain impact on the domestic market.

In addition, after the end of March, the reserve policy will also have a potential negative impact on the market.

It is worth noting that since the temporary storage is open to storage, the total amount of storage and storage has reached a record.

We estimate that the final storage capacity may be 2 million 900 thousand tons based on the recent estimate of storage and acquisition progress.

This is equivalent to 40% of China's cotton output this year and 30% of its demand. It also means that the chips for the cotton market in the late stage of the country have increased.

To sum up, the author thinks that although