India Banned Cotton Exports To &Nbsp; Cotton Futures Rebounded.

At noon on March 5th,

In March 5th, the India government announced that it would prohibit the export of cotton products with tax numbers 5201 and 5203, including export orders already registered by the government.

According to reports, since February this year, due to the reduction in domestic and foreign demand, cotton prices fell, India cotton yarn prices continued to decline by 5-7%.

Over the past year, half of India's textile mills have been deteriorating. These textile companies may not even get 50% of their loans, and are under great financial pressure.

Up to now, India has registered 2 million 125 thousand tons of cotton exports, and the actual shipment volume has reached 1 million 428 thousand tons, which is equivalent to the annual export forecast of India Cotton Advisory Committee (CBA).

As the second largest cotton exporter in the world, India's domestic textile enterprises are in the current predicament. The India government is forced to ban cotton exports, which is far beyond the original expectations of the market. The market originally expected that the India government could restrict the export of cotton by way of Taxation, which led to the market's worries about the future cotton supply in the international market and stimulated the rebound of cotton prices in the international and domestic markets.

Raise the cost of collecting and storing prices.

Last week, the new deal came out in 2012, stipulates that the new cotton purchase and storage price in 2012 is 20400 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with the current year, and the increase in the new year's purchase and storage price is basically expected in the industry. Cotton traders, ginning mills and cotton growers have actively supported this.

Last September 8th, when the temporary storage and purchase plan was launched, cotton prices slowed down from a decline to a steady recovery, and began to pick up in December.

By the end of February, the state had collected nearly 2 million 700 thousand tons of cotton, accounting for nearly 40% of its annual output.

The purchase and storage in addition to the purchase and storage price increase of 600 yuan / ton, but also the scope of the purchase and storage moderately expanded, the purchase and storage standards relaxed as appropriate, but the benefits are limited.

First, the increase in storage prices may lead to high and low cotton prices, which are unfavorable for the export of textile enterprises; two, because cotton planting income is still low relative to other grain varieties, and the benefits to cotton growers are limited. Three, raising the price of storage and storage may lead to an increase in cotton planting area and partly offset its positive effects.

The Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences recently released an investigation report that the cotton planting area may be reduced by 6.1% in 2012, and it will be reduced from 81 million 240 thousand mu to 76 million 284 thousand mu in 2011.

It also suggests raising the price of temporary storage and storage by 5%.

Four, raising the price of cotton purchasing and storage needs the acceptance and cooperation of the downstream consumer market, and the downstream consumption of cotton is in the doldrums, and the export situation is not optimistic.

According to the China Cotton Association, as of the end of January, the total turnover of the total commodity cotton turnover in China was about 1 million 229 thousand tons, an increase of 117 thousand tons compared with December, representing a decrease of 360 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

The market looks forward to the further handling and policies of the state in supporting textile and clothing exports.

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In March 3rd and 5th, the CPPCC and the NPC held two sessions.

In his report on the work of the government, Premier Wen Jiabao set this year's economic growth target at 7.5%. It is the first GDP growth target of less than 8% in the past 8 years, indicating the adverse external environment of economic growth.

At the same time, this year's CPI control target is set at 4%, indicating that the overall price level must be kept stable, and production and supply should be increased.

We will control prices and prevent inflation from rebounding by effectively carrying out macroeconomic policies, managing the supply of money and credit, and striving for basic equilibrium in aggregate supply and demand.

From 2010 to 2011, in the context of price regulation and prevention and control of inflation, the government repeatedly threw aside the cotton market and inhibited the excessive rise in cotton futures prices, which led to the disappearance of some cotton prices expected by some people in the industry to hit 40 thousand.

Cotton as an important commodity and strategic resource of agricultural products (11.67, -0.27, -2.26%), the impact of government regulation should not be underestimated, which will continue to affect the future trend of cotton futures prices.

Focus on global supply and demand changes

In February 24th, the United States Department of agriculture (USDA) said the global cotton output in 2012/13 fell by 3.9% to 118 million 500 thousand packages, but weak demand or surplus in the global market.

2011/12's year-end inventory of global cotton hit 25 years to 61 million, and China has 1/4 of it.

In March 2nd, the Informa Economics analysed the global cotton output forecast to 122 million 800 thousand packs in 2012, an increase of nearly 7% compared with the previous estimate, due to the projected increase in cotton planting area in Pakistan.

Whether the increase in cotton inventories or the increase in cotton production poses a threat to the rebound and fall of cotton prices.

Concerned about the impact of the March 9th global cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture on the future cotton futures prices.

Technical analysis shows that after the recent adjustment, the short term bottom characteristics of cotton futures are obvious. CF1209's support at the bottom of 21470 in the near future has been further confirmed, and the resistance of 22100 is relatively small. The consolidation of the market in the near future will hopefully impact the resistance of 22730 earlier, but in the short term, it is more difficult to break through the resistance effectively, and it needs further coordination of the basic improvement of consumption.