Cotton Prices Rose Seasonally &Nbsp; Medium To Long Term Trend Or Box Shock.

In February, CF205 fell softer in the morning of February 1st and February 2nd.

For cotton futures prices in the past month's rise, Chinese analyst Wang Qianjin believes that there are generally the following factors. First, cotton prices have been fully adjusted in 2011, and cotton prices have dropped by about 50%. In the past six months, cotton prices fluctuated at a price of 20000 yuan per ton.

Another main factor supporting cotton prices is the open purchase of cotton by the state. It is estimated that the country has acquired more than 250 tons of cotton. China's cotton output in 2011 is about 7 million 300 thousand tons, and the proportion of cotton storage and storage accounts for a large proportion of total cotton output. Moreover, the cotton stored in these stores will not be put into the market in the short term, which means that the supply of cotton will be reduced, which will effectively support cotton prices.

The world's cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture in January 12th showed that China's cotton purchase and storage is expected to reach the size of 12 million packages (Bale) (1 packets equals 0.218 tons), or about 260 tons. It is estimated that China's cotton inventory will reach 3 million 713 thousand tons in the 2011/12 market, ranking first in the world.

It accounts for 29.2% of global cotton stocks.

On the other hand, cotton prices plummeted in 2011, cotton efficiency decreased, farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting was frustrated. It is estimated that the planting area will be reduced by 10% in 3-4 cotton planting this year. If the cotton yield is constant, it means that China's cotton output will be reduced by 70-80 tons.

These two factors superimposed, become the main driving force to promote the recent strong rise in cotton prices.

The head of a textile enterprise believes that the price quotas of cotton and other textile raw materials have shown a certain regularity over the years. That is, during the period before the Spring Festival, because of the year-end inventory, many enterprises will choose to clear the goods, and the price of cotton will decline. After the spring Festival period, especially after the textile enterprises begin to start, cotton prices will show a wave of rising prices, which is a seasonal manifestation. It does not mean that the supply and demand situation of cotton has undergone fundamental changes.