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The Monetary Environment Will Be Better Than Last Year'S &Nbsp; Why Banking Stocks Are Weak?

2012/3/7 12:13:00 15

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On Tuesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities moved lower and lower, and the shocks dropped, and the stock index fell below the support of the five day line and the ten day line, which once approached 2400 points.

In the afternoon, the two cities are still weak, keeping the pattern of low level shock finishing.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2410.45 points, down 34.56 points, or 1.41%, and Shenzhen stock index [10149.78 0.55%] opened at 10193.23 points, closing at 10093.81 points, down 132.62 points, or 1.30%.

Gem refers to [755.85 0.67%] fell 0.80%, small and medium-sized board [4786.60 0.90%] fell 1.12%.

From the volume of pactions, the Shanghai Stock Exchange clinch a deal of 100 billion 674 million yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange clinch a deal 91 billion 646 million yuan, the total turnover is 192 billion 320 million yuan, compared to the previous trading day 206 billion 653 million yuan obviously atrophy.

Market entering box oscillation

The two cities are low and low in early trading, but they have strong support at 2400 points. It is expected that the two cities will be further lower in the future market. How big will it be? Is the callback a good time to buy? What to buy?

Huaxin Securities chief strategist

Lu Shui banner: personally, the rally since January 6th has ended.

Judging from the reasons for the current rally, due to the low innovation in the second half of last year, social capital began to spillover from the real estate market and artwork market to the relatively cheap A share market when the investment channels were limited.

But from the current view, as the stock market continues to rebound, the valuation level is rising, and the first quarter earnings are not optimistic, so the reverse pressure generated by this part of the fund will increase. From the valuation level, the market has been expecting growth of 20% this year in the four quarter of last year, corresponding to the static price earnings ratio at that time 11.3 times.

But the market often has two traditional performance correction windows, which are the annual report and the China Daily.

From now on, the credit level is low in 1 and February, so this year's growth rate is likely to be reduced to 15%.

In this way, the corresponding static valuation advantage is disappearing.

In addition, banks, real estate, building materials, roads and other industries are also making greater profits this year.

Comprehensive assessment, the stock index rebound more than 16%, there are certain adjustment requirements.

Therefore, it is suggested that investors should reduce their positions and reduce positions gradually.

Soochow Securities

[8.29 -0.96% Stock Research Report] Strategic Analyst / Zhou Kai Kai: the trend of Monday has already indicated that the short-term market will be adjusted. I think the market will be pferred to the low point near the previous 2360, that is, the 30 day moving average position. Stepping back to this position will have relatively strong support. After all, this is the first time that the half line has been recovered.

From a technical point of view, I think the possibility of getting back to this position will be greater.

There will be adjustment in the short term, but the margin is limited, and the 2400 point may be broken.

Whether the callback is the key to buying a good time depends on the definition of a good time.

During the two sessions, the probability of big market falling is not too big, or the whole March is also a probability event.

After all, there have been 8 rises in 12 years since 2000.

Therefore, as long as there are more obvious adjustments, are good short-term intervention opportunities.

Of course, for the centerline, the current layout needs to be cautious.

This year's monetary environment will be better than last year.

What topics are you most concerned about during the two sessions? What will be the impact on the market?

Lu Shuiqi: what I am most concerned about is four sets of data from the prime minister's report on the government's work. One is the GDP target level of 7.5% this year.

This is the goal set by the global economic slowdown and the adjustment of domestic economic structure, and the target set in 2011 was 8%, which increased by 9.2% last year. This year the real growth will be 8.3%-8.5%.

Two is inflation control at 4%.

This year's inflation situation has changed somewhat compared with that of last year. At least in the first half of the year, inflation may decline step by step. However, absolute inflation is unlikely to be too low. This is mainly due to the high commodity prices in the context of the easing policy in Europe and America.

The three is money supply, and the M2 growth rate is 14%.

Comparatively speaking, this year the market expects the monetary environment to be better than last year, but the absolute level will not be substantially relaxed.

The four is the fiscal deficit of 800 billion yuan, of which the central government is 550 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 150 billion yuan compared with last year; the local area is 250 billion yuan, an increase of 50 billion yuan over last year.

Judging from the impact on the market, based on the contraction of economic and corporate profitability, this year's stock market is difficult to have a large upward space, but it is different from last year's unilateral downward trend.

Why banking stocks are weak?

Bank shares

This week, a few months ago, the upward trend gradually weakened.

Wind data showed that in two days, the banking index fell 49.2 points, or 2.2%.

At present, the overall valuation of bank shares is 6.65, compared with the overall valuation of A shares, the advantage is 13.65.

In addition, the recent regulatory authorities frequently affirmed the good value of blue chip investment and other good news. Why do these banks have many advantages?

Bohai futures financial researcher / Du Peixia: from the perspective of trading trend, bank stocks actually stabilized at the end of last year and began to rebound in other sectors, which made it more general in the process of the February sector rally. From this point of view, in the face of stock index technology overbought, it is not surprising to choose the callback arrangement first.

From the long term perspective, the potential assets and profit expectations of bank stocks are excellent, and the security attribute of valuation is very high. It should be said that there will be a relatively good return on investment in the future. From the consistent expectations of recent major research institutes, the view that it will return to the upside with the short market will be widely recognized.

Therefore, I am optimistic about the long-term trend of bank shares, and I think that the short term fall can not represent anything. It can be regarded as a situation that follows the trend of the market.

Soochow Securities chief strategist / Kou Jianxun: for banks and other big blue chips, we need to see long-term investment value.

At present, the valuation and absolute price of bank shares are relatively low, with significant long-term investment value.

However, long-term optimism is one thing, and short-term negative impact is another thing.

Therefore, we can not examine and select bank stocks from the one or two day trend.

For the future banking stocks, most of the current worries are expected. The market generally believes that there will not be much deterioration. The future will only be relatively loose, and the adverse factors will gradually improve with time. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic about the future trend of the banking stocks.