Policy Support Is Insufficient &Nbsp; How To Operate After Market?

At the end of March, after the end of the state's purchase and storage policy, the structural imbalance caused by the reduction of absolute resources and the reduction of high-grade cotton will be the main contradiction of the market.

The subsequent changes in textile consumption, quota distribution and rhythm, sowing and weather conditions will have an impact on cotton market.

Cotton purchase and storage contents in 2012/2013 are compared with 2011/2012.

As we all know, China's cotton dependence on foreign trade is very high, and its linkage with the US cotton is over 0.95.

Due to the large increase in imports, domestic cotton prices have been greatly impacted by external markets.

According to the export situation in recent years, the total export volume of India cotton is about half of that of the United States cotton, and the proportion of imports is only inferior to that of the United States.

Since September 2011, India cotton imports are ranked first in the single month, followed by Australian cotton, while US cotton imports are relatively small.

As of March 5th, India has actually exported 1 million 598 thousand tons of cotton, and more than 500 thousand tons of cotton will be banned from export.

From a quantitative point of view, the volume of shipment has not been much, and the share of India cotton imported to China is also not large, which will not have a great impact on the domestic market supply.

For the United States, the degree of profitability should be higher than domestic.

Because of the reduction of competitors, other countries are moving to the US cotton market, and the demand for us cotton will increase.

However, the ban on exports in India is more damaging to the interests of domestic cotton traders, so the ban will be changed and will be unfavorable to cotton prices.

The focus of the cotton market in the late period will shift more to the fundamentals.

There are many uncertain factors in the future. It is difficult to carry out unilateral unilateral operations. Investors are advised to sell high and sell low.

In terms of arbitrage, opportunities are greater.

The price difference between the March contract price and the spot price, which is about to be delivered, is about 1000, which is far beyond the normal fluctuation range. As the delivery date approaches, the possibility of narrowing the price gap gradually increases, and it can buy arbitrage for spot selling futures.

For enterprises with a large number of stocks, it is a reasonable choice to sell hedging according to the actual situation.