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Impact Of Changes In Global Cotton Supply And Demand On China'S Textile Industry

2012/3/12 21:10:00 11

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In recent years, the production and marketing situation of the international cotton market has changed greatly, and the proportion of global share of various countries has also changed significantly.

In terms of output, India has surpassed the United States, second only to China.

India has a large cotton growing area but low yield per unit area. In the future, India will probably become the largest cotton producing country by improving technology.

In terms of consumption,

U.S.A

Consumption accounted for a significant decline, China's consumption accounted for a slight decline, while India, Pakistan and other countries consumption growth can be expected.

On the export side, India, Australia and Brazil account for an increasing proportion of exports, while the US share rapidly shrinks.

This series of changes also has an indirect effect on the pricing of cotton in China and the United States.

The international influence of India and other countries in the cotton market has gradually increased, and the supply and demand of cotton and the change of cotton market policy are also the risk factors that deserve attention.

According to the survey of China's cotton reserves, the inventory of China's cotton industry in March was about 1 million 23 thousand tons, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 7.3% over the past three years.

Although the yarn and cloth production rate of textile enterprises has rebounded slightly, it is still at a low level for nearly three years, and inventory backlog is obvious.

The current state of loose supply and sluggish consumption determines that cotton prices are still in a weak position, and the band investment ideas are empty.

In practical operation, we also need to be vigilant against possible risk factors in the future.

2011

China's textile and clothing export

The volume dropped sharply, up by only 0.5% over the same period last year.

Textile manufacturers predict that the demand for textile and clothing exports will still be insufficient in the first half of 2012, with negative or negative export volume.

The crisis facing the textile industry has aroused concern among the industry. The representatives of the two sessions called for a reduction in the tax burden on the industry.

If the relevant support policies are introduced later, it will stimulate consumption, or lead part of the cotton demand.

In March 30th, the purchase and storage ended, with a period of 5 months from the new year in September 1st. This period is the time window for the issuance of import quotas, and the circulation of imported cotton and domestic cotton may promote the convergence of internal and external spreads.

If the consumption season does not start as usual, it will not rule out the possibility of falling domestic cotton prices.

At that time, for cotton trading on the market, the 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price will be invalid, and 20400 yuan / ton will only be effective for new cotton next year.

4. In May, the sowing period and subsequent emergence growth period of cotton were confronted with unknown weather conditions.

Cotton area at home and abroad

The distribution is wide and scattered, and the occurrence of local disasters may be very large. The area and degree of disaster need to be traced and measured.