Market Divergence Began To Increase &Nbsp, Rebound Into The Second Half.

Last week, the two cities in the middle of the city fell down. market After the market began to increase the difference, we believe that the market is coming to an end, A shares are still high possible, and the rebound will enter the second half of the market. Due to the early appearance of big Yin's fall, confidence in the market has been shaken. Judging from the recent market performance, the characteristics of the stock market chaos are more prominent, and the involvement of various funds has signs of completing the hype quickly, so the time period of the second half of the rally may be relatively short. We have noticed that the market is more worried about the economic downturn and the decline in corporate performance. This situation has become more prominent since April.

　　 Market growth momentum weakened

From the market level, the first round of the rally began with the self rescue of capital overruns in the field, and then the capital of industry, household savings and QFII and other funds moved into the market. However, the A shares did not show obvious signs of improvement. After the market broke through 2400 points, the fund and other institutions showed significant signs of reducing their positions. Some of the funds also suffered redemption, and some of the funds in the field were weakened. In addition, bank stocks that used to be market stabilizers began to adjust to the market, and one after another sought support.

It is noteworthy that this instability did not rapidly change the direction of the market, but only intensified the flow of funds among the plates. Since March, small and medium-sized stocks represented by technology stocks, large consumer stocks represented by liquor beverages have been sought after by funds, and the traditional cyclical companies are rapidly being indifferent. This also shows that over the past two weeks, the market lateral arrangement is mainly the switch of hot spots. But what we are worried about is that the stock market speculation began last week. There is a suspicion that the various funds involved will soon finish the speculation. Does this mean that the second half of the rally will end in the short term? This is something that investors need to pay close attention to.

　　 Second support points should be sought in the medium term.

We put forward a rebound into the second half. It's a hot market. It can also be smoothly converted, and the popularity has not been completely dispersed. That is to say, the rise of future market depends on the relocation of funds in the field, especially the index of Shenzhen Branch, small and medium-sized board and gem. Of course, this does not mean that other factors support the rise of A shares. For example, the policy aspect, after the deposit rate is lowered, the market's expectation of loosening liquidity is actually weakened. At present, the policy face still supports the key to market confidence, or the more economic fundamentals in the future, the more favourable the policy is, the easier it is to introduce such logic of thinking. From a fundamental perspective, the pace of economic downturns is likely to accelerate, and business performance expectations are expected to increase, especially for some traditional cyclical companies. As the "two sessions" set the tone for certain economic indicators, the stock index returned to the fundamentals faster than expected.

From a technical point of view, we have always stressed that the market since the 2132 point is all over the rebound, so the future market still needs to prove the safety and reliability of the location. According to the logic of the second half of the rally, after the market has gone up, it still needs to fall once. Some of the indexes have a high inflation process. Some indexes are directly adjusted into the market after adjustment. As the Shanghai composite index did not break through 2500 points, the 2132 point is only the middle term of relative significance. To sum up, if we want to go further in the future market, we need at least to form a fulcrum to confirm the reliability of the 2132 points.

　 Stocks are in chaos and security is supreme.

Last week Traditional periodic classes The trauma brought by the adjustment of stocks will not be easily smoothed. The strong attack of large consumer stocks is essentially a fund entry into defensive areas, but the performance of individual stocks may also overdraw the time of institutional defense, because in the economic downturn, growth firms will also be oppressed by the "ceiling", so we must be vigilant against the risk of catching up such stocks.

In addition, some stock financing hype plates and stocks based on liquidity loosening anticipate that once the release of basic performance is difficult to keep up with the share price, we need to be vigilant against the risk of catching up again. For companies with margin trading conditions, we can pay attention to the behavior of increasing or reducing the funds in the field.

In the second half of the rally, the transformation of market hot spots will be quicker and more often seen as a chaotic battle of stocks. During this period, it seems to be bustling, actually hidden risks, and the strategy needs to pay more attention to safety. In the future, relatively safe investment targets need to take into account both value and growth. Value is easy to find the margin of safety, while growth factors can bring a certain speculative premium.