Cotton Storage And Storage Close To The End Of Supply Exceeding &Nbsp; Short Term Pressure Is Heavy.

　　 Cotton price Short term pressure is heavy.

Recently, Zheng cotton's CF1209 contract slowed down sharply after falling to 21200, and maintained in the 21360 line. I believe that the supporting role of the new purchase and storage plan for cotton prices has been digested by the market. Cotton import quotas and throwing and storage policies will have greater pressure on cotton prices, and cotton consumption will continue to be weak in the coming period. Zheng cotton We will continue to explore and seek support.

　　 cotton Collection and storage is coming to an end.

Cotton collection and storage in 2011 is about to end. The purchase and storage have raised the bottom of cotton price. While stabilizing the cotton planting area, the market supply has been ensured, and the supply and demand structure of the cotton market has been changed. At present, more than 4 cotton in the market has been stored and stored, thus avoiding further decline in cotton prices. As of March 23rd, the total amount of temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2011 was 3 million 10 thousand tons, accounting for 41% of the total annual output of 7 million 260 thousand tons of cotton. Coupled with the import of 1 million tons of cotton before, the state has mastered 4 million tons of cotton resources and enhanced its ability to regulate cotton prices. However, the temporary storage and storage of cotton only reserves too much cotton on the market, and does not reduce the total supply of cotton. Under the condition of no obvious improvement in demand, short-term oversupply will create pressure on cotton prices upward.

Wheel storage pressure continues to increase

At present, the domestic cotton storage capacity is nearly saturated. If the storage is continued in 2012, the market will face greater dumping and storage pressure from 4 to July. If the state chooses to throw the reserve, the price of the throw and storage should be 19800 yuan / ton's storage price plus warehousing expenses and capital interest. The estimate should be over 22000 yuan / ton, and the current spot price is much lower than this price. Because the overall goal of the state's temporary reserves is to ensure market supply and stabilize cotton prices, the supply of cotton is relatively loose at present, so it does not have the basis for dumping. However, at present, the storage capacity of the country is full, so it is more difficult to increase the storage capacity in the short term. Only the dumping and storage can ensure the smooth operation of the cotton storage and storage in 2012. Therefore, the market has great doubts about whether the government will throw cotton reserves in the period of collecting and storing. {page_break}

Spot demand continues to be weak.

At present, the global economy is lingering, and cotton consumption demand will remain depressed for a certain period of time. In February, clothing sales in China continued to decline. From the perspective of clothing exports, the total export volume of clothing exports in China was 19 billion 290 million US dollars in February, down 2.5% from the same period last year, and the total export volume of textiles was 11 billion 940 million US dollars, down 2.6% from the same period last year. From the domestic clothing sales data, in February, the 3000 major retail businesses monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, clothing sales decreased by 3.2%, and clothing sales grew by 7.7% compared with the same period last year. According to the survey, due to the sharp fluctuation of cotton prices, the proportion of pure cotton or cotton products in clothing market has dropped significantly, and to a certain extent, it reflects the current situation of cotton consumption fatigue.

Quota postponed pressure on cotton prices

Compared with the higher cotton prices in China, textile enterprises tend to use outer cotton. But as of now, the NDRC has issued only 894 thousand tons of tariff quotas this year, and has not yet issued a quasi tax quota, and the import demand of textile enterprises has not been satisfied. Recently, the attention of cotton circulation enterprises and textile enterprises to imported cotton has increased significantly, but it can only wait for the NDRC to issue quasi tax quotas at an early date. Some enterprises purchase tariff quotas to ensure production, and 1% cotton import tariff quotas have risen to 2600 yuan to 2700 yuan / ton, and some enterprises are buying cotton yarn directly in the international market to reduce costs. In February, China's cotton yarn imports reached a record high of 123 thousand and 500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 72.36%, an increase of 122.36% over the same period last year, indicating that the demand for foreign cotton is booming. The delayed issuance of quotas, though stabilizing domestic cotton prices, has greatly suppressed cotton prices. If the quotas are substantially distributed from 4 to May, the domestic cotton prices will fall down. If 6 to July, the impact on cotton prices will be relatively small.

Technically speaking, Zheng cotton CF1209 contract has entered a downward path, the warehouse volume continues to shrink, the price is located in the middle of the brin channel, showing that the short term oscillation is weak.

Comprehensive analysis, 2011 cotton purchase and storage work is about to end, the support role of purchasing and storage has been weakened. In the later period, the state is facing the policy game of throwing and storing and stabilizing the planting area. The issuance of sliding tax will have greater pressure on the price of the period. Investors can be concerned about the support of the futures price near 21000.