CICC: Apparel Home Textile Sales Outlook For The First Quarter &Nbsp; Main Push 5 Shares

Investment points

Two months of 1~2 month are close to the promotion and season change, and the growth of retail sales of brand clothing and home textile companies is relatively low. In March, there is a trend of acceleration, and the first quarter is expected to become the bottom of the annual growth rate.

We expect that the average growth of the same store in the first quarter is about 5%~10%, lower than the level of more than 20% last year; the retail terminal revenue has increased by more than 20%, and the total revenue of the new store expansion company has increased rapidly.

As the current order growth is faster than terminal sales growth, there may be a slowdown in the growth rate of orders in the second half of the year, and channel inventory needs to be closely followed.

Men's clothing and outdoor performance are relatively good, can continue to be optimistic; home textile companies 1~2 growth in the doldrums, in March has picked up, can steadily improve still need to wait and see.

Main basis

On the whole, brand companies in January grew by about 10%~15% (plus expansion, the average growth of terminal revenue was more than 25%). In February, it was only a low unit number or flat same store growth (revenue growth of around 10%~15%). In March, it is expected to return to January or slightly better than January.

Men's clothing and outdoor are relatively good; home textile companies 1~2 growth in the doldrums, accelerated in March.

We use the total terminal revenue growth rate divided by the expansion rate of stores as the same store growth rate. The same store growth rate is about 10% of the companies that exceed the industry average, and about 5% are medium, 0% or even negative.

The terminal revenue increased by more than 20%, and the store grew by 11%, so that the same store grew by about 10%, which is expected to accelerate in March. In the first quarter, the growth of the same store was around 15%. YOUNGOR (end sales grew 26% in January, and 20% in the 2~3 month, while the store expansion rate was only 10%). The Pathfinder (during the Spring Festival) increased by 82% year-on-year, and the sales rate in 2011 and autumn was 65~70%, which was stronger than that in 2010 and autumn. The number of sales in the first quarter increased by 30~60%, the terminal sales growth should be 30%~50%, the store growth rate was 34%), the card Nu Di Road (the first quarter earnings increased by 40~60%, the terminal sales growth was expected to be 30~40%, the growth rate of the stores was 34%). 1) beyond the industry average: seven wolves (1~2 months)

2) the medium is: the nine Shepherd (expected the first quarter terminal revenue growth in 25%~30%, the same store growth should be in the number of units), the news bird, BELLE (expected in the first quarter of the same store growth rate of low units), 1~2 (the growth rate of monthly terminal income is around 30%, the same store growth should be in 5~10%).

3) below the industry average: American, Semir, Luo Lai, fuanna, Meng Jie, Busen on Saturday, terminal revenue growth may be slower than the expansion rate of stores, the same store growth may be negative.

In March, terminal sales rebounded: most companies had a rebound in terminal sales in March. For example, BELLE said that the terminal sales in March were more obvious, and the terminal sales of home textile companies also improved to a certain extent in March.

Investment suggestion

Continue to watch men's clothing and outdoor.

Men's clothing market has a large scale and there is still room for channel sinking. The profit model is brand driven, and the target group is relatively insensitive to price changes, and the price gap between the international brand and the first tier brands is large.

The outdoor sports industry has a small base for rapid growth, and the development of consumption habits is the driving force for the current market growth. It is in line with the trend of consumption upgrading. Outdoor consumption begins to start beyond ordinary sports goods. Nike, Adidas positioning and sinking has pferred some high-end consumption space.

A shares are mainly promoted: seven wolves, YOUNGOR, nine herd kings and Pathfinder.

Companies that search for the first class because of rapid expansion and better overall revenue growth can also be concerned.

Hong Kong stock is mainly promoted by: Li Lang, BELLE, and textile and garment company Shenzhou International.

Among them, the main reason for the slow growth of BELLE's same store is that there are more new stores, especially the new store in the shopping center, which has diluted the efficiency of the old stores. However, the total revenue growth rate should be around 20%, maintaining the recommended rating.