The Total Import And Export Value Of Shoes And Garments In China Reaches US $325 Billion 970 Million.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that in March this year, China's import and export value totaled 325 billion 970 million US dollars, an increase of 7.1%, and the trade surplus of that month amounted to US $5 billion 350 million. Data show that in March, China exported 165 billion 660 million US dollars, an increase of 8.9%; in the same month, imports of US $160 billion 310 million, an increase of 5.3%; after seasonally adjusted, the growth rate of imports and exports, exports and imports in March increased by 7.2%, 9.8% and 4.6% respectively. Export growth was better than expected in the market, but import growth is not optimistic. This is also the reason for the favorable balance in the month.

In the past 2001-2011 years, the volume of import and export trade has increased by more than 22% per year. However, since August 2011, export growth has dropped sharply, from 24.4% in August to 17% in September and 15.8% in October, to only 13.8% in November, and 13.4% in December, showing almost free fall speed. However, this figure is still relatively optimistic compared with this year. Due to holiday reasons, the negative growth rate has been negative: -0.5%, and rebounded to 18.4%, with only 8.9%.

This month reverses the deficit situation that happened in February, which is a little gratifying to the heart. It seems that the situation is developing towards a balanced direction. However, the decline of export growth reflects the decline in 2012. China The foreign trade situation is still straying. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Monetary factors. Until the end of 2008, China's M2 was only 84% of the United States. However, as of the end of 2009, the balance of China's M2 was 61 trillion yuan, which was 8 trillion and 940 billion yuan at the end of the year against the US dollar, while the US M2 balance was $8 trillion and 550 billion over the same period. China's GDP, especially per capita GDP, still has a big gap compared with that of the United States, but China's money supply has achieved the goal of "super beauty". By the end of August this year, China's M2 was 68 trillion and 700 billion yuan, which was 18% higher than that of the United States. As of September 2011, China's M2 was nearly 20% higher than that of the United States, which means that the same commodity in China is much more money than the United States, in other words, "made in China" abroad is cheaper than in China.

International environment. The EU has become China's largest trading partner, and the trade volume between China and the EU accounts for about 16% of China's total trade. However, the European debt crisis, which has continued to ferment, has cast a heavy shadow on this bright spot. One of the most obvious examples is that China's export growth to Europe has dropped sharply from 46% in January 2010 to 4.9% in November 2011. At the end of November 2011, a survey showed that almost all of the companies surveyed felt the impact of the European debt crisis, and 35% of the surveyed foreign trade traders said their impact was quite obvious. In the survey report, 2/3 of Chinese foreign trade enterprises reflected the decline in export orders from Europe.

Trade friction. Over the past two years, the intensity of non-traditional trade frictions has increased. Trend one, Europe and America blame China more on institutional issues such as intellectual property protection, foreign investment environment, and institutional problems such as government subsidies and state-owned enterprises; trend two, technical barriers to trade and green barriers become new constraints; trend three, China's manufacturing continues to rise along the value chain, giving pressure to European and American countries, so clean energy and other emerging industries will become "the worst hit areas"; trend four, trade disputes spread from developed countries to developing countries.

　　 RMB rate Risk still exists. On the one hand, under the pressure of political pressure in the United States, on the other hand, in order to speed up the process of RMB internationalization, and establish its "hard currency" status, the renminbi's "rising or depreciating" is falsehood by politics, so that enterprises are deeply trapped in the double predicament of export slowdown and domestic demand market obstruction. Since the reform, the RMB has appreciated 30% against the US dollar. If we consider inflation factors, the appreciation will be even higher. It is expected that the renminbi will continue to appreciate against the US dollar for some time to come. In contrast, the currencies of India, Russia and Brazil in the BRICs are depreciating against the US dollar. This will seriously weaken the price advantage of Chinese goods and increase the exchange rate risk of China's foreign trade. The risk of exchange rate fluctuation that RMB appreciation may bring is also an important factor that the export enterprises dare not take up the list. For the Chinese economy with a foreign trade dependency of more than 70%, if the RMB continues to appreciate against the US dollar, it will surely cause the renminbi to appreciate more greatly against other currencies, and the impact on exports can be imagined.

Demographic dividend. Over the past 30 years, the biggest driver of foreign investment in China is the demographic dividend, in addition to the low cost of raw materials. A large number of surplus labor force in rural areas goes to developed areas. "Migrant workers" account for second, third industry employment population accounts for 46.5%, and construction industry accounts for 80%. Abundant labor resources and cost advantages have made China the world's factory and the engine of world economic growth. But with the gradual decline of demographic dividend, these advantages will no longer exist. In terms of export, China has great advantages in labor-intensive products in the global division system. However, with the approaching of Lewis turning point, this comparative advantage is gradually losing. From the labor cost of the major developing countries in 2008, the labor cost in China's coastal areas is 0.86-0.94 dollars / hour, much higher than those in India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh and so on, while the labor cost in the inland area is 0.50-0.80 dollars / hour, roughly the same as that in India. With the rise of labor costs, China's slowdown in export growth in labour intensive industries has become the trend of the times. In addition, with the gradual weakening of demographic dividend, savings rate will continue to decline, and high investment rate will also give way to high consumption rate, which means that the growth rate of investment will decline in the future.

China's foreign trade is at the low end of the industrial chain. This is the plight of China's foreign trade enterprises. The hard-earned processing fees are far less than the brand fees paid by foreign enterprises. Without independent brands, Chinese enterprises are the wage earners in the world, who do the hardest work, but earn the least money. Without independent brands, foreign trade enterprises rely too much on OEM OEM, and inevitably fall into the trap of "Shanzhai". After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's export processing enterprises are still struggling at the lowest end of the industrial chain.

In this regard, China's Wealth Management Research Institute pointed out that China's economy is developing at a high speed, but at the same time, it has paid a high price for the extensive growth mode. The imbalance of social and economic structure, such as excessive consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution, has become increasingly acute. With the increase of labor costs, raw materials and other production factors, the cost of "made in China" will be higher and higher than that of competitors. China's production factors are no longer cheap. Some of them are at the bottom of the international division of labor chain, and can not escape the fate of excess reshuffle for the development mode of the whole world's assembly process and production links.

In the past ten years, the miracle of foreign trade has been sighed by people. In 2001, the total volume of foreign trade exceeded US $500 billion. In 2010, China's import and export trade reached US $2 trillion and 970 billion, equivalent to nearly 6 times that of 10 years ago. China's foreign trade development basically achieved two digit growth in the past 10 years. The total volume of China's import and export trade increased by more than 22% from 2001 to 2011. Ten years after joining the WTO, it can be regarded as golden ten years. In terms of the main economic indicators, whether the total amount or the structure, whether it is international trade, domestic industrial layout, or the protection of vulnerable and sensitive industries, the red line has been basically maintained, and the industry categories of the development basically have amazing development. It can be said that these ten years are the favorable opportunity for China's economy to make full use of the third wave of globalization and successfully achieve the first step in overtaking corners. China has not only become the first trading power and world factory, but also the second largest economy in the world, and more importantly, China has returned to the center of the world economic arena and has become the biggest producer affecting the world.

However, the current data show that the export prospects are not optimistic. Even if great efforts are made to ensure the balance of import and export growth, the era of large-scale foreign trade dividends opened by China's accession to WT O in 2001 has gone for ever. But are people accustomed to the rapid development of the economy ready to meet the era of single digit foreign trade?

General situation of foreign trade in the first quarter

In the 1 quarter, the surplus of US $859 billion 370 million was US $670 million.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to March, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $859 billion 370 million, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports amounted to 430 billion 20 million US dollars, an increase of 7.6%; imports of US $429 billion 350 million, an increase of 6.9%; and a cumulative trade surplus of US $670 million.

Customs statistics show that in the month of March, the total value of China's imports and exports was 325 billion 970 million US dollars, an increase of 7.1%. Of which, exports amounted to 165 billion 660 million US dollars, an increase of 8.9%; imports of US $160 billion 310 million, an increase of 5.3%; the trade surplus of that month was US $5 billion 350 million. After seasonally adjusted adjustment, China's import and export, exports and imports grew by 7.2%, 9.8% and 4.6% respectively in March.

In the 1 quarter, China's general trade import and export amounted to US $452 billion 670 million, an increase of 8.1%. Among them, exports amounted to 200 billion 500 million US dollars, an increase of 7.9%, and imports of US $252 billion 170 million, an increase of 8.2%. The trade deficit under general trade amounted to 51 billion 670 million US dollars, an expansion of 9.4%. Over the same period, China's processing trade imports and exports reached 304 billion 730 million US dollars, an increase of 4.4%. Among them, exports amounted to 196 billion 70 million US dollars, an increase of 6.3%, and imports of US $108 billion 660 million, an increase of 1.2%. Trade surplus under processing trade reached US $87 billion 400 million, an expansion of 13.4%.

In bilateral trade with major trading partners, China's imports and exports with Russia and Brazil have increased rapidly. Statistics show that in the 1 quarter, bilateral trade between China and Europe amounted to US $126 billion 870 million, an increase of 2.6%. Over the same period, Sino US bilateral trade totaled 106 billion 770 million US dollars, an increase of 9.3%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN is 86 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 9.2%. Sino Japanese bilateral trade totaled 79 billion 440 million US dollars, down 1.6%. Over the same period, the total trade between China and Russia and Brazil was 21 billion 490 million and 18 billion US dollars, respectively, increasing by 33% and 11.5% respectively.

In the 1 quarter, the total value of Guangdong's foreign trade imports and exports was US $209 billion 980 million, an increase of 4.3%. Over the same period, the total import and export value of Jiangsu, Beijing and Shanghai were 121 billion 510 million, 102 billion 440 million and 102 billion 410 million US dollars, respectively, increasing by 0.3%, 12.3% and 3.8% respectively. In addition, the total import and export value of Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian were 69 billion 950 million, 55 billion 800 million and 33 billion 270 million US dollars, respectively, increasing by 5.2%, 3.1% and 14.8% respectively. From the point of view of exports, Guangdong exported 121 billion 280 million US dollars in the 1 quarter, an increase of 5.4%. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai exported 70 billion 30 million, 47 billion 340 million and 47 billion 240 million US dollars, respectively, by 2.8%, 6.1% and 3.2% respectively. Over the same period, Shandong, Fujian and Beijing exported 28 billion 230 million, 20 billion and 13 billion 140 million US dollars, respectively, by 1.3%, 10.4% and 4% respectively. The export growth in the central and western regions showed a rapid growth. The export growth rates of Chongqing and Henan were 1.5 times and 1.4 times respectively, while the export growth rates of Guangxi, Sichuan and Hunan were 41.2%, 31.9% and 18.7% respectively.

In the 1 quarter of the export commodities, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 252 billion 990 million US dollars, an increase of 9.1%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of China's overall export growth over the same period. Among them, exports of electrical and electronic products were 102 billion 930 million US dollars, an increase of 6.1%, and the export of machinery and equipment was US $83 billion 960 million, an increase of 12.4%. Over the same period, exports of some labour intensive products such as textiles, clothing and shoes were exported by US $29 billion 570 million, an increase of 3.9%. textile Exports of US $20 billion 440 million, an increase of 1.4%, and footwear exports of US $9 billion 80 million, an increase of 2.8%.

In the 1 quarter of imports, China's iron ore imports amounted to 1.9 million tons, an increase of 6%, the average import price was $137.1 per ton, down 13.4%; soybean 13 million 330 thousand tons, an increase of 21.6%, the average import price was 525.7 dollars per ton, down 8.2%. In addition, the import and export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.5% to 173 billion 800 million US dollars, of which 294 thousand vehicles were imported, an increase of 24.9%.