Ye Tan: The Gloom Of The Economic Crisis Is Gradually Dispersed &Nbsp; The US Stock Market May Recover After A Big Crash.

It is widely believed that the unsatisfactory employment data of the United States are again fermented.

This wave is accompanied by panic in the economic crisis, and the stock market is rising.

The US who made the subprime mortgage crisis has become the biggest profit maker in the post financial crisis era.

The US economic data is still relatively weak, but it has taken the initiative in the two key areas. The two major areas are mutually reinforcing.

The United States is relying on economic power to get rid of the crisis. Their happiness is built on the pain of other countries.

First, the American expansion.

Secondly, the United States has made basic self-sufficiency of oil, coupled with large-scale shale gas development. The price of natural gas is the lowest in the world, while domestic energy prices in the United States have dropped, while the United States is a global agricultural power. Core inflation rate has remained low.

The US energy self sufficiency rate has risen sharply.

In 2001, the United States imported crude oil from the Middle East to a record high of 2 million 664 thousand barrels per day, accounting for 28.6% of total imports. In 2011, the United States imported about 15% of its oil from the Middle East.

In the first 10 months of 2011, the US energy self sufficiency rate reached a historic 81%, the highest level in the United States since 1992.

Shale oil and shale gas are the key, as well as oil sands in Canada and elsewhere. The West Texas oil price in the United States has been decoupled from the Brent crude oil price.

The United States controls the Middle East, just as the United States controls global pportation, just to control the global energy market, not to increase imports from the Middle East.

Look at the food again.

In 2007, the US food inflation rate was 4%; in 2010, it was 0.8%.

According to the US government's forecast, the grain inflation in 2012 will be between 2.5% and 3.5%, and the expected interval is lower than 3.7% in 2011. This level is acceptable.

The reason why the US values core inflation is not only because of the volatility of crude oil and grain prices, but also because it can be controlled within the United States.

In 2010, the US overall inflation rate rose from 1.5% in 2010 to 3% in 2011. The core inflation rate rose from 0.8% to 2.2%, which is expected to be slightly lower than 2% in 2012.

In contrast, China's crude oil and food dependence are rising at the same time.

In 2011, the apparent consumption of PetroChina (601857) was 4.7 billion tons, while the growth rate was lower than the average growth rate of 7.1% in the past ten years, but the growth rate was 4.5%.

In the same year, China's crude oil's external dependence exceeded 55%, and its import volume exceeded 2.5 billion tons.

According to customs data, China's grain imports reached a new high of 1 million 640 thousand tons in March this year, an increase of 486% over the same period last year, an increase of 53.27% over the previous month.

In addition to the rapid growth of corn imports, the rapid increase in the import of forage wheat is also the main reason for the rapid growth of grain imports in China.

Since 2004, China has changed the situation of self-sufficiency in the past, showing a substantial increase in imports.

In 2004, China's net import of grain was 17 million 840 thousand tons, and it increased to 48 million 940 thousand tons in 2009.

This has the effect of arbitrage, but the rise of rigid demand can not be ignored.

The final breakthrough and final competition is in the system and technology.