PTA Short Term May Rebound

The market crash last week was a short feast. Us non farm employment data, French and Greek elections, and China's economic data are all affecting the nerves of the market. PTA (8278, -74.00, -0.89%) the main 1209 contract quickly fell below 8500 points, the panic disk gushed out so that the Bulls retreat near 8250.

　　 Economic slowdown, the central bank once again reduced

In the turbulent external market, China's April macro data were crowded out. In April, exports increased by 4.9% over the same period last year, and imports increased by only 0.3% over the same period last year. The industrial added value increased by 9.3% over the same period last year, down 2.6 percentage points from March. In April, the retail sales of social sales increased by 14.1% over the same period last year, down 1.1 percentage points from last month, a second low value in the past 12 months. The "three carriages" and the new credit downturn triggered the market's concern about the further slowdown of the economic growth, and became the main short selling power of the commodity market.

However, CPI grew by 3.4% in April, which is in line with market expectations. The drop in oil prices also let the market see the dawn of CPI's downward trend, and the inflationary pressure has slowed down. In May 12th, the central bank announced the reduction of the renminbi of deposit financial institutions. Deposit reserve The rate is 0.5 percentage points, and the liquidity is about 400 billion yuan.

　 Cost support weakened, big factory again cut production

Crude oil prices dragged down, PTA upstream raw material prices loose, PX prices fell last weekend, 33 U.S. dollars / ton, to 1470 U.S. dollars / ton, directly below the 1500 U. S. dollar pass. However, I believe that the current downturn is only a reflection of market panic. On the one hand, the Asian PX settlement price in May is 1550 US dollars / ton, on the other hand, with the passage of time, the stocking demand for the new PTA capacity can not be ignored. Therefore, the PX in the post market is likely to re close the $1500 mark.

After the centralized maintenance of the PTA plant in April, the PTA load rose to 95% highs, and since the middle of May, with the market weakening, the PTA factory has also reported a reduction plan. According to CCF statistics, Yisheng petrochemical plant's 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant began to stop maintenance for two weeks starting from 11, and some parts of Ningbo plant may also be scheduled for maintenance for a week. Ningbo MITSUBISHI began to arrange maintenance in May 15th.

Polyester prices are strong and fabrics are active.

While prices of PX and PTA have dropped significantly, there is a phenomenon worthy of attention: the price of polyester products is relatively low. Due to a large decline in the previous period, serious losses, polyester prices did not follow the raw material slump, the focus of the transaction was unchanged from the previous week, the downstream weaving factories maintained rigid stockings, the average production and sales of polyester factories remained at 8 to 9, and the inventory increased by only 1 days compared with the previous week. In addition, we note that China Textile City Fabric daily turnover has increased significantly in recent days, the number of individual days exceeds 10 million meters, the highest level in the same period after the financial crisis.

To sum up, the economic growth is slowing down, and the macroeconomic environment facing PTA is more unfavorable. Domestic demand and export fall are the main force to suppress the price. However, the central bank has once again reduced its accuracy, and the PTA factory has cut down again. The factors such as pet prices declining and falling are expected to stabilize market confidence and lead the PTA short-term price into a recovery rebound.