The Industry Chain Is Empty And PTA Is Hard To Get Back.

Since May 2012, the European debt crisis has continued to deteriorate.

Crude oil has repeatedly appeared.

This is undoubtedly worse for PTA, whose original fundamentals are very fragile.

PTA has become a leading pioneer in the current round of decline. Since the May 1 holiday, PTA has fallen more than 1200 points, or 14%, the lowest point since August 2010.

Cost support collapse

Entering the May, US negative data frequently attacked, EIA crude oil inventory weekly showed that US crude oil inventories rose for 10 consecutive weeks, and increased 2 million 200 thousand barrels in May 24th, refreshing the new high in 22 years.

Subsequently, the US non farm report showed that the number of non farm employment increased by 69 thousand in May, far below expectations, the lowest level in a year, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.2%.

In addition, the growth figures for non farm payrolls in March and April were also revised down.

Driven by the above economic data, New York crude oil futures prices plummeted, hitting the highest single month decline since December 2008.

Naphtha, which is closely related to crude oil, also fell by more than 17% in May.

What is more worrying is that the price of PX, which has been showing off resistance, has dropped sharply, from the $1524 / ton FOB in early May to the current US $1210.

However, at present, PX producers still maintain more than US $100 per ton, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has dropped from 580 US dollars to 450 US dollars / ton, but it is still far higher than normal level, so PX still has much room to fall.

At this point, the cost support of PTA bulls is shattered and the market is falling.

Spot price offset

PTA will expand its peak

In May, the spot price of PTA was relatively lower than the futures price. The discount rate of PTA futures to spot increased significantly, from 130 yuan per ton in April to 337 yuan / ton, but last week, the spot price of PTA dropped sharply, the highest daily drop reached 450 yuan / ton, and was cut to June 4th. The spot price of PTA in East China was only 75 yuan higher than the main contract TA1209 closing price.

The reason for the panic reduction in late May is mainly due to the curtain opening of the new capacity of PTA.

In May 21st, the 1 million 400 thousand tons of new petrochemical plant began to feed, and the initial trial run was 700 thousand tons.

6 - July, the 1 million 400 thousand tonnes of new products of Tong Kun will be put into operation, and there will be a large number of other capacity plans to go into operation in the second half of the year. Therefore, the overcapacity of PTA will peak in the coming months, and PTA, which will lose its cost, will be difficult.

Terminal demand downturn

Polyester stocks float again

In May, the European debt crisis intensified, and the US debt crisis was also emerging. This is undoubtedly a major blow to the export of PTA's terminal textile industry.

Even in the peak season of textile and clothing exports, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been hovering around 60%. The stock of polyester products upstream of the textile industry has been increasing, especially for the DTY of polyester filament, which is up to 36 days, far higher than the normal level of 10 days.

In addition, in June, as the traditional textile off-season, and most polyester and polyester enterprises are facing the peak of loan repayment, polyester enterprises can only reduce their prices in order to ease the inventory backlog caused by high opening rate. Therefore, the whole polyester market has formed a pattern of "lack of support and lack of demand", and the market is pessimistic.

From the perspective of the current PTA industry chain, the weakening of crude oil has led to a sharp fall in PX, and the cost of PTA has shifted sharply. The textile outlook is bleak underneath, resulting in the accumulation of PTA and its downstream products, and the peak of the PTA production that has already begun. PTA's post market situation is hard to come back to, and will eventually run to 7000 points.