The Summer Situation Analysis Of China'S Foreign Trade And Economic Cooperation Will Be Held In Beijing

The 2012 Summer situation analysis of China's foreign trade and economic cooperation was jointly held in Beijing by the China International Trade Association and the foreign economic and trade university. Experts at the meeting put forward their own views on the internal and external structure and environment changes of our foreign economic and trade undertakings. We believe that in the second half of the year, China's economy is still facing downside risks to a certain extent, and the foreign trade situation is hard to say. It is worth noting that some participants pointed out that precisely because the global economy is in a prolonged period of change and predicament, the third industrial revolution will come out.

China's export challenges in 2012

Li Jian:

At present, economic globalization has entered a period of in-depth development, and a new round of adjustment is in progress. The demographic dividend of developing countries is failing, the momentum of reform and opening up is losing, foreign investment is slowing down or even falling, and factor prices are rising in all directions.

After the crisis, the global economy is slowly recovering, and many deep-seated problems remain to be solved. Developed countries such as the United States and Europe need to solve the problem of high debt. They are advocating savings, encouraging exports, promoting the development of the real economy, striving to improve the trade imbalance, and their demand is restrained. Developing countries and emerging economies are changing their way of development. Their investment and consumption demand are strong, and their pulling effect on the world economy has been enhanced. However, they face inflation, hot money inflow and asset bubbles. Global supply and demand are experiencing a rebalancing, both in short supply (resources and energy), as well as in overproduction.

The US economic data are down again after a short period of improvement, the unemployment rate is rising again, the consumption growth of the residents is weak, and the recovery of the US dollar is still insufficient. The EU debt crisis is still spreading. Most countries, except Germany, face the pressure of economic contraction. Japan's economy is beset by power shortages, and the recovery process is slow. The developing countries are slowing down because of the sluggish external demand and the withdrawal of capital, and the growth of demand will slow down.

With the weakening of external demand and macroeconomic regulation, China's GDP growth slowed down, increasing by 8.1% in the first quarter, and the growth of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of social consumer goods both fell by 20.9% and 14.8% in the first quarter. At the same time, the effectiveness of curbing inflation has been achieved. The consumer price index (CPI) has risen 3.8% in the first quarter, up 3.4% in April, and the pressure of RMB appreciation has been reduced. There is a certain fine adjustment in the macroeconomic regulation and control policy and money supply, and the basic policy of the state supporting foreign trade development will remain stable.

Overall, China's economic growth rate will slow down and the conditions for export operation are still tight. Faced with the dilemma, I think it should be further strengthened. foreign trade enterprise Support for financing and export credit insurance; as the foreign trade situation continues to deteriorate, tax and tax rebate policies should be appropriately fine-tuning; grasp the reform of income distribution system and resources and energy prices, pace, avoid the excessive increase in operating costs of export enterprises, open the market voluntarily, expand imports, stimulate consumption, promote technological progress, actively promote institutional reform, and research and launch policies and measures to promote joint ventures between people and foreign countries and undertake a new round of international industrial transfer. I think this year's overall goal is still to achieve moderate, coordinated and sustainable growth in foreign trade.

Great importance should be attached to exports to the US.

He Weiwen:

In the first 4 months of the year, exports increased by 6.9% over the previous year, with two percentage points coming from the US market. China's exports to the US and exports to the EU are equivalent, but the US market contributed 11 billion US dollars, accounting for 28.7% of the total increase in global exports of US $38 billion 290 million. Exports to the EU dropped by 2% compared to the same period last year, a net decrease of US $2 billion 100 million. The incremental contribution of the US market is very close to that of the 10 ASEAN countries, Japan and South Korea (11 billion 826 million US dollars), which is 4 times the total sum of other BRICs (India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa) increments (US $2 billion 754 million). In April, China's exports to the world increased by only 4.9% over the same period last year, a net increase of US $7 billion 890 million. Exports to the US increased by US $2 billion 536 million, or 32.1%.

Therefore, we need to attach great importance to exports to the United States and strive to maintain steady growth. The US market has the following characteristics:

　　 Mechanical equipment Imports grew faster; imports of automobiles and parts increased rapidly; crude oil imports decreased and oil prices relatively stabilized; the growth rate of imports of industrial raw materials slowed down to 6.7%; the import of consumer goods basically increased by zero; this was a sign of poor consumption; the growth rate of food and beverages was basically the same as that of the whole import growth; it was rigid demand; the growth of other commodities was the fastest, reaching 18.2%, but the amount was small.

The main growth points for exports to the US are: first, the three categories of computers and electronics, machinery and transport equipment. In the first quarter, the total exports to the United States amounted to US $43 billion 400 million, which accounted for 46.2% of total exports to the United States, a net increase of 4 billion 501 million US dollars, representing 57.8% of the total 7 billion 791 million US dollar exports to the US during the same period. This is the main reliance on China's steady growth in exports to the US. But solar photovoltaic, wind towers and auto parts suffer from intensive "double reverse", and the situation is still grim.

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Second, the two categories of clothing and electrical equipment and electrical appliances are third and fourth categories of exports to the United States respectively. China's share of the US market has reached 1/3, and its growth potential is not large. Among them, clothing exports to the US grew by 3.3% in the first quarter compared with the same period in the same period, which is almost the same as that of the US during the same period. The growth rate of electrical equipment and electrical appliances exported to the United States is only 3.3%, and only half of the US's growth from the global import is 6.6% of the growth rate of the 3.6%.

Third, China's exports to the United States second, fifth, eighth of the miscellaneous manufactured goods, leather products and furniture, the first quarter year-on-year growth rate is only 1.9%, 1.4% and 6.7%, the potential is not large.

Fourth, exports of tenth plastics and rubber products to the US increased by 17.4% over the same period last year. The seventh metal products increased by 14.5%, indicating that despite repeated trade restrictions, they still maintained a relatively strong growth.

Fifth, miscellaneous products, clothing, electrical equipment, electrical appliances, plastic and rubber products, metal products, furniture and leather products seven categories.

China's downward pressure on the economy is increasing

Zhao Jinping:

We can see the trend of China's export from the phenomenon of "double down" in Shenzhen. What is the phenomenon of "double fall" in Shenzhen? Shenzhen is China's largest export city, and its exports account for 13% of the country's total exports in 2011, ranking the most in cities. However, in the month of 1~2, Shenzhen's industrial added value and industrial sales value were negative growth. This phenomenon is called Shenzhen's double declining phenomenon.

In this regard, the first judgment is that so far, China's export growth has dropped markedly this year, which has had a greater impact on the downward pressure on the economy. Many statistics can be reflected, 1~4 month cumulative export growth of 1.9%, the first quarter growth of 1.3%, compared with the same period last year dropped 19 percentage points, the rate of decline is very large. If the price factor is taken into account, the actual export growth rate will be even lower. Shenzhen 1~2 month is negative growth, down more than 40 percentage points over the same period last year, which has a relatively large impact on the national export growth rate.

Such a situation has brought great difficulties to enterprises. From the perspective of Shenzhen, exports in 1~2 months were down this year, with a negative growth of 5%, its industrial sales value decreased by 5.4%, and its total logistics revenue dropped by 5.2%, including the lack of 70% of Shenzhen's IT manufacturing related industries in the first quarter. The profitability of enterprises has also dropped sharply, of which 1/3's profits have basically remained at around zero, which has brought great difficulties to enterprises. Faced with these difficulties, enterprises can only choose to cut production or lay off workers. According to our survey conducted at the same time, there are probably 1/3 enterprises to reduce production, and 1/3 enterprises are preparing to lay off workers. This will cause greater pressure on China's economic and social environment, especially in terms of exports, and the impact on employment demand will be more direct.

As the export situation is grim, the pressure of China's economic downturn is increasing. This is a basic judgement of ours.

The reason for the decline in exports is related to the shrinking demand in the international market, the substantial appreciation of the RMB effective exchange rate and the transfer of industries. In fact, many policies to stabilize the growth of foreign trade have been introduced in succession, but the real implementation is not very optimistic. The second aspect is to strengthen the intensity of macro adjustment and improve the business environment of enterprises. For example, enterprises reflect the financing difficulties and high financing costs. Many enterprises have reflected that even if they can borrow money, the cost will be over 10%, which is too heavy for enterprises. Let alone small and medium-sized enterprises, financing is very difficult. Along with this central bank's interest rate cut, to a certain extent, it will help alleviate the difficulty of raising funds and raising the cost of financing, but it is still far from enough.

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The third industrial revolution conjecture

Zhang Xiangchen:

In April 21st this year, the British economist magazine published the article entitled "the third industrial revolution", which aroused widespread debate, comment and heated debate. Its basic view is that the first industrial revolution is the machine instead of manual production; the second is the assembly line; the core of the third is the digitalization of the manufacturing industry, which will reflect a small batch and personalized production trend. This view was raised by Professor rive king of Pennsylvania University in February this year. He is a futurist.

Reevin believes that the rising industrial revolution is made up of five pillars: first, the transformation of traditional energy into new energy; second, decentralized production; third, energy storage, the use of new technologies to store energy; fourth, the Internet of energy, energy can be collected and then shared; fifth, the transformation of transport means, battery plug in instead of traditional transportation. At the same time, some people in the industry believe that three reasons have spawned the third industrial revolution.

First, the economic crisis is spawning a new round of industrial revolution, because every major change is related to the economic crisis. For example, in 1929 the Great Depression of the United States hit the US economy, but the breakthrough of atomic energy and space technology saved the United States.

Second, the adjustment of global industrial layout is also the driving force for the new industrial revolution. All countries are looking for new growth points in the wave of globalization, such as new energy industry, intelligent industry, low carbon trade and agricultural industry, looking for new competitive advantages. Disruptive technology will emerge.

Third, the technological revolution itself has developed to a new stage through accumulation and needs breakthroughs.

Li Yong:

The third industrial revolution can also be regarded as the continuation of the first and second industrial revolution. The third industrial revolution emphasized decentralization and decentralization, or decentralized production.

Reevin is talking about democratic manufacturing, and everyone can become a manufacturer. 3D printing technology in the future can enable everyone to become a potential manufacturer. Although it sounds like science fiction, it has become a reality, and he asserts that it is destined to change the way of thinking of industrial production.

The development of the third industrial revolution represented by 3D technology is right. International Trade The impact is probably in the following aspects:

First, the global production chain is shortened.

Second, global industrial cooperation is decreasing. That is to say, outsourcing to outsourcing will lead to the phenomenon of globalization, and the dependence of trade countries on trade may decrease.

Third, developed countries rely on the advantages of technology to grasp the initiative of trade and investors. In the future, because the developed countries are in the technological plateau, they can choose their own favorable trade and investment modes.

Fourth, foreign investment will focus more on the local market.

Fifth, developing countries may once again become passive. On the one hand, they may become suppliers of raw materials. On the other hand, they will also face the plight of labor demand reduction caused by large-scale production of 3D printing.

Sixth, the industrial foundation of developing countries may be damaged, and it may lead to a new round of world economic imbalances.