July 12, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20253 yuan / ton; 229 level 19382 yuan / ton; 328 level 18449 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17545 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9760 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14970 yuan / ton; C32S price 25400 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 11, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

According to the monitoring system of the national cotton market, recently, the high-grade cotton quotas in some provinces in the mainland have experienced a sharp rise and fall. However, the number of pactions has not yet been effectively followed up.

3. import cotton: in July 11th, the price of China's main port of import cotton remained stable.

At present, the market is deeply troubled by the pressure of supply and the weakening of demand. Due to the high price of cotton both inside and outside, the quota of textile mills is seriously insufficient, and the purchase of national cotton will increase production costs.

In addition, the destruction of textile mills is on the rise. On the whole, the cotton market is still hard to find a breakthrough to break the current predicament.

In the 4.USDA:USDA report, the double reduction of global cotton initial inventory and production led to a 3% decrease in the inventory at the end of next year.

The global cotton inventory consumption ratio was 66.4%, and the forecast value last month was 68.4%.

5.ICE cotton: in July 11th, the USDA supply and demand report lowered the world's cotton output and ending stocks by 322 thousand tons and 462 thousand tons respectively in the next year, and stimulated the ICE cotton futures to break through 72 cents, but the Bulls took profits in the late stage, and the main contract increased to 30 in December.

Summary:

In the USDA report, the double reduction of global cotton initial inventory and production led to a 3% decrease in the inventory at the end of next year.

The global cotton inventory consumption ratio was 66.4%, and the forecast value last month was 68.4%.

It can be interpreted as a small plus.

But such a small margin is hard to change the basic weakness.

Every upward impact of the cotton will be obviously restricted by the fundamentals.

At present, the price of zhengmian has shifted slightly, and the fundamentals have shown signs of stabilization. Zheng cotton is expected to hold the 40 day moving average.

On the operation, we may use the idea of interval oscillations and more operations, and take the 20 and 40 day moving average as the reference. The above concerns about the pressure of the 19650 early small highs.

If the breakthrough can be short-term catch up.

[MEIKO futures] market long confidence slack period cotton shock

Overnight, the USDA supply and demand report was good enough to stimulate ICE cotton futures to break through 72 cents, but the Bulls took a profit in the late stage, and the main contract increased to 30 in December.

Although inventory pressure has eased, the fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose, and cotton prices will not rise temporarily, and will remain weak in the near future.

On the news side, USDA announced the latest forecast of the world's cotton production and storage. The main contents are as follows: the double reduction of inventory and production at the beginning of the world has led to a 3% decrease in the inventory at the end of next year.

Output dropped by 322 thousand tons, and output in India, Pakistan and other countries declined. India was also cut down by 218 thousand tons because of less planting area and lower yield per unit area. Consumption remained basically unchanged.

In the international market, in July 11th, the price of China's main port of import cotton remained stable.

At present, the market is deeply troubled by the pressure of supply and the weakening of demand. Due to the high price of cotton both inside and outside, the quota of textile mills is seriously insufficient. The purchase of national cotton will increase production costs, thereby weakening the competitiveness of products in the international market, and may lead to the loss of orders and the pfer of industries to overseas.

In addition, the destruction of textile mills is on the rise. On the whole, the cotton market is still hard to find a breakthrough to break the current predicament.

Domestic market, 11, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

According to the monitoring system of the national cotton market, recently, the high-grade cotton quotas in some provinces in the mainland have experienced a sharp rise and fall. However, the number of pactions has not yet been effectively followed up.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June, China imported 476 thousand tons of cotton in that month. The ring ratio dropped slightly, but it remained at a high level. Compared with the domestic cotton less than 700 thousand tons per month, the cotton remained the main position of domestic cotton spinning.

The pressure on the domestic market is still there.

{page_break}

Spot quotation. In July 11th, the price of C/A cotton in the United States was 89.60 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15051 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The price of Australia cotton was 92.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15492 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 90.80, the general trade port delivery price was 15249 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price was 85.35, the general trade port delivery price was 14387 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19390 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; the B index was 18461 yuan, up 3 yuan.

Market analysis, overnight USDA released a good supply and demand report price, but the strength of the current round of US dollar to the US cotton price trend is still playing a significant role in the pressure, while the industry's weak pattern has not changed. The more serious pressure is still the key factor that restricts the price. But the expectation of next year's purchase and storage as well as the supply and demand structure will be better than the current year.

On the operation, Zheng cotton can only be cautious in holding 19300. If the price is up to 19600, it can be reduced and rolling operation.

[German futures] supply and demand report is too much, Zheng cotton stabilized rebound

Wednesday's CF1301 day shock, CF1301 closed more than 28.3 hands trading, holding a slight decrease.

CF1301 closed at 19435 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton, reduced 18150 hand; in July 11th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.97 cents / pound, fell 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13670 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14590 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 11th news, the ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Wednesday, but lower than the daily high. Brokers said earlier that the government's supply and demand report triggered a wave of decline, and investors began to settle their positions at the end of the month.

ICE cotton contract rose 0.30 cents in December, at 71.02 cents a pound.

In July 11th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 19600 tons, an increase of 6620 tons from the previous day, an increase of 4860 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 141900 tons.

11 days to match the market MA contract opening rate varies, the upward trend within the day, the end of the whole line rose, the volume of warehouse synchronization increased substantially.

On the basic level, although the market situation is still weak, the cotton market, which has been in a bad situation for a long time, is more sensitive to the profit that the market can reflect. From today's spot market, matching the performance of the market and futures market, the market is expected to have more and more interest in the US agricultural data report this evening.

On Wednesday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion, and the supply and demand report was the first time in the year. Although it is more neutral, the space below is shrinking. Zheng cotton is expected to continue to rebound, and 19400 is the track of the rebound channel.

Today's operation suggests that light warehouse operations can be more appropriate at low level, and the CF1301 reference price range is 19400-19600.

[Huaan futures] the main melody of Zheng cotton trading is gentle oscillation finishing.

Key points:

1, the central bank continued to carry out counter repurchase on the 10 day, and the punctual point was close. Some loose monetary control policies of the central bank provided help to the real industry as a whole, alleviating the shortage of market funds to a certain extent.

2, the main port price of imported cotton is still weak today. In June, China's cotton import volume was 476 thousand tons, an increase of 296.6% over the same period last year, and the demand intensity of imported cotton did not change.

3, in June 2012, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the situation of export shrinking was more obvious.

External trend: New York, July 11th, ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Wednesday, but lower than the daily high, brokers said earlier, the government's supply and demand report triggered a wave of recession, and investors began to settle their positions.

The cotton contract in December rose 0.30 cents, at 71.02 cents a pound, with a trading session of 70.28-72.45 cents.

Early comments: overnight USDA supply and demand report (compared with June data) slightly reduced global cotton output and ending stocks, and India's export volume was reduced. China's domestic consumption was downregulated. Generally speaking, USDA data were more neutral to cotton futures, but the effect of lieu was offset by QE3's expected reduction. Cotton overnight was basically flat in the ICE period. Similar to the cotton trend in the ICE period, Zheng cotton recently showed an awkward situation. However, from the spot side, the domestic cotton turnover slightly improved, especially the 3 grade cotton.

In the near future, Zheng cotton maintains a narrow range of oscillations, waiting for market guidance to choose the direction. Short term intraday investor trading is the main choice.

Operation: zhengmian 1301, intra day trading, waiting.

Guide directions before entering.