Use Of Stimulating Rigid Demand, Textile Upstream Raw Material Market To Defuse Inventory Control

The two quarter of 2012

The raw material market is almost full of ink, acrylic 3D tow, ICE cotton and polyester filament FDY150D/96F unfortunately fall into the top three of the decline list, falling by 30.34%, 23.26% and 17.39% respectively, and the main plates of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and nylon filament have also declined to varying degrees. Only one spandex variety has been picked up by a slight advantage of 0% to 1.16%.

Especially after entering the May, under the guidance of the commodity weathervane, the international crude oil slump, the textile raw material market fell "waterfall", and most of the products took off all the gains this year and hit a new low in the year.

This year, the entire textile and chemical fiber market has not started signs. From the beginning of the year, it made a brief start to the peak season, and then to the off-season in June and July. Cotton producers, chemical fiber manufacturers and downstream small and medium-sized textile enterprises all became "frogs" in the warm water.

Global economic growth is sluggish, market demand is constrained, and domestic textile and apparel situation is grim. At the same time, domestic chemical fiber enterprises have experienced no pressure on the "three mountains" since they experienced high inflation last year.

Under the combined effect of a series of factors, the disintegration between the links of chemical fiber textile industry chain is becoming more and more prominent, and the demand problem has gradually been put on the agenda. From the beginning of the artificial exaggeration to the fact that now is an indisputable fact, the sluggish demand under the overcapacity has become a recognized common market disease.

Many companies said: "in 2008, we experienced a sharp fall in product prices. But in 2012, we experienced not only the price drop but also the pain of the backlog of products." although the production of chemical fiber and downstream weaving mills continued to decrease, the social stocks remained high.

By the end of 6, cotton stocks in Qingdao port were conservatively estimated at around 220 thousand tons.

At present, the warehouse of Qingdao port is full of warehouses. As the warehousing plan is always larger than the outgoing plan, the cost of storage and insurance is rising, and whether China's import quotas will be increased or not, many foreign businessmen have to pfer cotton to Vietnam, Malaysia and other regions closer to China.

However, at present, the market price has dropped to the low level in recent years, and considering the long duration of the falling market, the influence of the negative factors has already been overdrawn.

In June 29th, the EU summit reached a rescue agreement, which brought a glimmer of dawn to the market. In July, China and Europe cut interest rates one after another, and the US QE3 will also come to a gradual conclusion.

Good news from the macro side is coming, or the textile raw materials market will be stabilized and rebounded. Individual varieties will even appear beyond imagination.

Finally, the key is to see whether the road is smooth and unimpeded. Without actual demand, it is not advisable to push blindly.

It is advisable to make full use of the opportunity to stimulate rigid demand.

Acrylic fiber rise and fall: -28% ~ -30%

Blind optimism, late attack can not be ignored

After market Proverbs: after a long time of decline, the pessimistic atmosphere that has been enveloped the market has been released, the support strength at the bottom of the market has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers buying up has been warming up earlier.

However, the market turnover is still difficult to significantly reduce the volume, the downstream acrylic yarn factory starts to run low, and inventory keeps increasing.

But after this sharp fall, the acrylic market is showing signs of stabilization.

At the same time, the start-up load of acrylic fiber manufacturers should also be concerned by the participants. If manufacturers blindly expand production at this time, the strike of the acrylic fiber market in the later stage can not be underestimated.

In April, the market of acrylic fiber was actually very few.

Because of the lack of orders, the overall operation rate of the downstream acrylic yarn manufacturers is low, and the multidimensional holding capacity is about 5%, thus the demand for raw acrylic fiber is very limited.

At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile in the raw material market is going down. The price of the acrylic fiber market has been falling down and the factory price has gone down further.

In the face of continued decline in acrylic fiber market prices, businesses operate more carefully, and take a single way of talking.

By the end of the month, the price of 1.5D staple fiber was 21500~22000 yuan / ton, 3D tow was 21500~22000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 3D top was 19400~21500 yuan / ton.

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In May,

The market is going from bad to worse.

Near the end of the month, the contract settlement price far exceeded the market expectations, causing the market to suffer heavy losses and the downstream buyers to postpone the purchase plan.

Although there are high-end quotations, there are occasional pactions heard, but it is already rare. The market decline is a foregone conclusion.

The reason is not difficult to find out that the downstream yarn factories are running low, the consumption of raw materials has been reduced naturally, and the market expectations are pessimistic. Buyers are mainly replenishing goods on demand, and with the use of them. The European debt crisis has been slow to resolve and the prospects for terminal textile exports are uncertain.

By the end of the month, the price of 1.5D staple fell to 16800-17100 yuan / ton, 3D tow 16700~17000 yuan / ton, 3D top 17700~18300 yuan / ton.

In June, the market of acrylic fiber was full of empty air and its volume was not good enough.

Although manufacturers significantly reduced the settlement price of the contract in May, the market reaction was dull, especially for traders who were unable to bear the sharp loss of price because of the high inventory and the cost pressure. The market mentality was once frozen to the freezing point.

Near the end of the month, the market sales situation has not improved, the pessimistic atmosphere is aggravating, and the wait-and-see sentiment is stronger.

Finally, the manufacturer settled the contract settlement price again in June.

Cotton inner cotton rise and fall: -6% ~ -9%

Oversupply, import hit a new high

Post market Proverbs: the US Department of Agriculture released the global cotton supply and demand forecast report in June, and 2012/2013 cotton inventories consumption ratio was 68.35%, a record high since 1960.

Global cotton supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, while China's cotton stocks account for more than 50% of the world's total, and the abundant supply of China's cotton market is more difficult to get out of the rising market.

However, with the support of the State purchasing and storage policy, the domestic cotton price in July and August may be close to 20400 yuan / ton, and the cotton price in the three quarter will be more likely to oscillate in the range of 18500~20000 yuan / ton.

In April, it was the peak season for cotton demand. However, due to the bad first quarter economic data and the renewed debt crisis in Spain, the fragile market confidence was weakened, which led to a weakening of the cotton spot market as a whole.

By the end of the month, the average monthly price of China's cotton price index was 19385 yuan / ton, down 0.9%, down 33.2% from the same period last year.

In May, the domestic cotton market continued its early downturn. Cotton prices fell faster and the spot prices fell to the lowest point of the year.

As of the end of the month, China's cotton price index fell below 19000 yuan / ton, the total monthly decline of more than 600 yuan / ton; the main cotton contract was pferred from CF1209 to CF1301, and the price dropped from 21350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 19455 yuan / ton of 31, or 9.19%.

The abolition of the India ban, the import quotas from rumors to the actual issuance, economic turbulence and short lead led to a sharp fall in the futures market and a new low in two years. The bad news is aggravating the downstream textile companies' wait-and-see or even cautious, at the same time, it has also increased the pessimistic degree of the whole cotton market to a great extent.

In June, there was no substantial change in the domestic cotton market, but the pessimistic mood eased slightly in the latter half.

Looking at the market performance this month, the obvious volatility of the futures market has affected the spot market to a certain extent.

At the beginning of the month, domestic and foreign cotton continued to fall, and even the market was down.

In the latter part of the market, the futures market showed a slight upward trend as the bad money did not continue to deteriorate, interest rates and other assets were lifted.

Driven by the futures market, although the spot market did not shake off the risk of oscillation as a whole, market confidence recovered slightly, and even in the middle part of the world, there appeared a tentative rise in the high-grade cotton with fall resistance.

In April, the international cotton market continued its downward trend.

Since mid March, when the cotton export policy of India has been adjusted frequently and the global cotton production and demand forecast report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) has tended to be loose, the price of imported cotton has continued to decline, and the spread of domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened.

As of April 27th, the closing price of ICE cotton continuous contract was 89.23 cents / lb, or 6.7%, and the FCIndex M index of China was 103.64 cents / lb. The import cost was 17021 yuan / ton according to the sliding rate, which was lower than the domestic market price 2424 yuan / ton.

In May, the international cotton price fell more than domestic, and the ICE cotton contract in July fell 18%, the highest monthly percentage decline since July 2011.

At the same time, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton compared with April. In addition, the second batch of imported cotton slipped quasi tax quota was issued, and the quantity of imported cotton purchased by textile enterprises increased significantly, and the number of imported cotton in China continued to maintain a high level.

According to customs statistics, China imported 500 thousand tons of cotton in May, a decrease of 1.5% over the same period, an increase of 2.5 times compared to the same period last year, and 4 million 250 thousand tons of cotton imports in the first 9 months of 2012.

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In June, the international cotton market rose first and then fell.

In June 19th, the contract closed up 5 cents / pound to 87.98 cents / pound in July, the highest in May.

But prices continued to rise and demand worries led traders to gain profits, and cotton prices in ICE fell continuously.

At the end of the month, the decrease in US cotton planting area, the surge of US stock market and the news of the European summit provided good support for the cotton market. ICE cotton was able to stop and rebound.

Polyester filament rise and fall: -13% ~ -18%

A flash in the pan, good stability, no demand.

After market motto: with the upstream raw materials PTA, MRG market stabilized rebound, downstream bombs, weaving factory operation load has increased, the overall boot rate generally increased to 6~8 near the level.

But this does not mean that once and for all, it will probably happen again in the near future.

After all, the situation of oversupply of terminal grey cloth is still hard to solve in a short time.

As of press time, inventory of grey cloth in general is around 2~3 months, and more than 4~6 months.

In the absence of substantial demand support, it is difficult for the market to form a sustained rise in prices.

In April, the market price of polyester filament dropped and then stabilized.

After a round of centralized replenishment at the end of March, the downstream bombs and weaving factories were waiting to see the market enter the digestion inventory stage again, and the mainstream production and marketing were below the level.

In the case of supply exceeding demand, the prices of chemical fiber factories in various places were slightly loosened, and the market prices of polyester filament POY, DTY and FDY150D fell to 11200 yuan / ton, 12600 yuan / ton, and 11300 yuan / ton respectively.

As the initial stock is gradually digested, market production and sales are showing a trend of recovery in the late part of the market.

But by the end of the month, the market has returned to the same trend, and the overall production and sales have dropped to 6~8 near the level.

In May, the polyester filament market overall showed a downward trend.

As of May 31st, the mainstream quotations of polyester filament POY, DTY and FDY150D market were 10600~10800 yuan / ton, 11900~12100 yuan / ton, 10500~10900 yuan / ton, or 4.5% to 5.5%.

In the first half, the overall market was slightly deadlocked.

During the holidays, the good news on the macro side continued, and the international oil price was on the rise. It laid a good atmosphere for the opening of the polyester market after the festival.

But with the upsurge of upstream PTA and MEG, the market optimism has gradually weakened.

In the last ten days, the market declines gradually enlarged. PTA futures fell into the "7" era, forming a greater cost pressure and psychological pressure on the polyester market.

In June, the polyester filament market was weak.

In the first ten days, the whole industry chain crashed, PX broke $1200 / ton, PTA broke 7000 yuan / ton, and slicing was broken 9000 yuan / ton.

In June 18th, the mainstream production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rose to 150% to 200% and 300% to 400% respectively.

However, it did not last long. With the oscillation of raw materials falling down, the purchasing power of downstream manufacturers quickly dropped, and the market prices fell again.

It was not until June 25th when the seminar on domestic polyester filament enterprises was held that the market entered a relatively stable period under the guiding ideology of "limiting production and stabilizing prices".

Polyester staple fiber rise and fall: -15%~-16%

What is the current demand?

Maxim: including yarn factories and chemical fiber factories, people in the industry generally believe that polyester staple fiber is already at a relatively low price. But why is the volume of market still not improving? Actually, the crux of the market is not the price but the bad terminal market.

In the weak economic background, the consumption capacity and the desire to buy lower, the terminal does not improve, and the intermediate links only achieve sales through price reduction.

At present, the microscopic nature of the fundamentals is far worse than the false optimism of the macro level. When the good news happens, it can not bring about a cognitive change in the improvement of the market.

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In April,

The market declines significantly compared with March. The mainstream price of polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm is basically around the narrow oscillation of 11200 yuan / ton line, and the market volume shows a low middle high phenomenon.

Zhi Yuezhong, by the arrival of the downstream factory's replenishment point and the support of PTA producers at the end of the month, the market finally rebounded again.

However, we can see that in the context of the lack of confidence in the entire chemical fiber market, the intensity of the market has been cautious and mild, and the desire for middlemen to enter the market is not strong.

In May, the average market price of polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm was around 11000 yuan / ton.

Although both the start-up and production efficiency and inventory situation have improved compared with that in April, the polyester staple market is showing an accelerated downward trend in the case of the gathering of external bad information and the collapse of cost support.

Cotton related products also suffered in May, and the impact of foreign cotton quotas and market rumors on national dumping and storage affected the cotton futures market all the way to the price of 18300 yuan / ton.

In June, polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm fell below the low of 10650 yuan / ton a year ago and continued downward, closing at 9425 yuan / ton at the end of the month, or nearly 12%.

This month, due to the more concerned external news, investors' mentality showed a strong risk aversion.

Interest rate measures were also digested. The pair was worried about economic data in May. The polyester staple market also accelerated in the first week.

In the second week, the market news began to invest in the Greek general election. In the context of the possibility of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone, crude oil and commodity varieties began to run red, and the polyester staple market was also suppressed first.

However, in June 15th, the Fujian Changle Textile Association conference decided that the local yarn enterprises could limit production for 15 days, resulting in a downward pressure on polyester staple prices again.

Nylon rise and fall: -10% ~ -12%

When the terminal is blocked, thin water can hardly become a fountain.

Maxim: from the macro perspective, domestic textile export orders are decreasing, the economic situation continues to be turbulent, and short term confidence is not enough to stimulate demand.

From the cost perspective, caprolactam and nylon chips market prices continue to be low, the future cost of nylon products support is still insufficient, prices still fell slightly.

From the perspective of supply and demand, although nylon manufacturers continue to adopt cautious measures to control production, but the actual demand is insufficient, the overall supply and demand pressure is still large, the overall industry inventory remains at 20~30 days level, and the pressure of de stocking will remain in a longer period of time.

The nylon filament market is expected to maintain a weak trend.

In April, the price of the nylon filament market continued to move down under the influence of low raw material prices and weak terminal demand.

At the end of the month, the price of 70D/24F in the FDY market dropped to 27000~27300 yuan / ton; the shipment price of POY85D/24F high-end goods was reduced from 28000~28500 yuan / ton to 26500~27800 yuan / ton; the price of DTY70D/24F bulk bomb dropped from 31000~32000 yuan / ton to 30000~31000 yuan / ton, and the price of small bomb dropped from 29000 yuan / ton to 27500~28000 yuan / ton.

In May, the nylon filament market continued to decline, but the decline was narrowed earlier.

Because exports are weak and domestic demand is sluggish, the continuity and enthusiasm of downstream businesses are not enough to buy goods. The main reason is that the supply of goods is mainly supplemented, so that the overall market demand is not too strong.

Under the influence of the worsening external environment, the price of caprolactam and nylon chips has been decreasing, and the price of nylon filament has been decreasing.

As of the end of the month, the price of POY85D/24F high-end factories dropped to 25800~27000 yuan / ton, and the price of low-end small factories dropped to 24000~24200 yuan / ton; the price of DTY70D/24F big bombs dropped to 29000~30500 yuan / ton, and the price of small bomb dropped to 27000 yuan / ton level; the FDY70D/24F market price dropped to 26500~26800 yuan / ton.

In June, the market price of nylon filament continued to be callback.

As of the end of the month, the price of POY85D/24F high-end factories dropped to 25500~26000 yuan / ton, and the price of low-end small factories dropped to 22600~23000 yuan / ton; the price of DTY70D/24F big bombs dropped to 28000~28500 yuan / ton, some of which were high price 29000 yuan / ton, small bomb price to 25500~26000 yuan / ton, and FDY70D/24F market price to 25300~25500 yuan / ton.

The production of caprolactam in China has resulted in continuous suppression of raw material prices, and terminal textiles.

Stagnation resulted in high inventory of nylon chips and nylon filament, and the market prospect is still uncertain.

Viscose staple fiber rise and fall: -8% ~ -9%

Limited production and price protection, it is hard to say that the fundamental improvement.

After market motto: textile and clothing exports are still difficult to get rid of the constraints of the external macro-economic side, the downstream cotton yarn manufacturers overall operating rate dropped to 5~6 near the level, and there are still follow-up manufacturers have cut production, stop production intention.

Weak demand is internal injury, and sluggish production and sales ratio will continue to contain market price trend, viscose staple fiber production enterprises are more helpless.

At the end of the press release, the mainstream factories in Tangshan and other mainstream factories have introduced maintenance plans, and the overall operation load of the industry has dropped to about 70%.

However, limited production can reduce supply, help stabilize market prices and reduce inventories, but it is difficult to make fundamental improvement in the market.

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In 4~5 months, the viscose staple fiber and its downstream cotton yarn have a more distinct performance in the traditional peak season, especially in the cotton spinning market.

After the Qingming small holiday, producers around the world quoted a weekly increase of 200 yuan / ton, reaching a high level of 16400~16800 yuan / ton in early 5.

However, as the volume and price of cotton yarn fell, viscose staple fiber market began to shrink, and the cotton market fell sharply. After mid May, the market price came back.

In the 3 days after the end of May, the viscose staple fiber market was down sharply by 600 yuan / ton, and the price was from 15700 yuan / ton to 15500 yuan / ton to 15300 yuan / ton.

In June, the viscose staple fiber market showed an oscillating market.

In the first half of the month, the viscose staple market maintained a weak downward trend. The price of the mid end negotiated price was 14500~14800 yuan / ton, and the high-end negotiating price was around the 15000 yuan / ton line.

After the middle of the 20th century, as the market price approached the psychological price of the market participants, the purchasing volume of downstream cotton producers and traders began to significantly enlarge.

Under the support of a marked improvement in the turnover situation, the viscose staple fiber market has slowed down and ushered in a wave of rebound. The price of the middle end manufacturers has been raised to 14600~14900 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end manufacturers has been raised to 15000~15200 yuan / ton.

But because the downstream cotton yarn did not rise and fall, the cost could not be smoothly pmitted, and the market trading atmosphere declined again, mostly based on small single replenishment.

Spandex rise and fall: 0% to 1%

The rally is fading, overcapacity is slowly digesting.

After market motto: the terminal textile market is still unpredictable. The downtime leave of the downstream enterprises will restrict the consumption of the spandex market. The downturn in the environment will continue to weaken with the main textile materials such as cotton yarn and polyester, resulting in further caution, on-demand and frequent price reductions.

The price supply of spandex raw materials will gradually increase, but there will be a possibility of falling down. However, due to the pressure loss of the spandex industry and the support for production reduction operation, it is expected that although there will be room for further exploration in the future market, it will still be adjusted within 1000~2000 yuan / ton.

As the bottom of the domestic economy picks up, the market will slowly absorb the pain of overcapacity.

In April, the market of spandex market remained weak.

In March and April, it should be the habitual production and sales peak season of the entire textile industry. The actual demand situation has not improved significantly. The high inventory and the pressure of loss are playing chess games. Spandex producers' "dead shoulder" can only make the price lower.

As of the end of the month, the mainstream trading price of 20D spandex was 55000~60000 yuan / ton; the 30D spandex sale range was 48000~52000 yuan / ton; the 40D spandex sale interval was 42000~46000 yuan / ton.

However, at the end of the month, a small number of spandex brands began to slightly increase their quotations, and the rest of the enterprises also kept their spirits up. This brought hope to the spandex industry, which was in the doldrums for a long time.

In May, spandex producers' support from low inventories and rising costs set off a small wave.

In particular, the Middle East spandex Trade Association's agreement on reducing production and insurance prices has raised the price of 30D and 40D to 50000 yuan / ton and 45000 yuan / ton respectively.

But the demand is expected to reduce the impact of the market outlook, businesses pull up operations are cautious, and cotton yarn, polyester, viscose and other major textile raw materials prices fell, resulting in lower manufacturers to take the mentality of goods more cautious, high prices of many sources of conflict, the spandex market continued upward performance is weak.

By the end of the month, the mainstream of 20D spandex was 56000~60000 yuan / ton, lower 52000 yuan / ton, 30D spandex at 49000~52000 yuan / ton, and 40D spandex at 43000~46000 yuan / ton.

Entering the June, the prices of major textile raw materials such as polyester and cotton yarn were down, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers decreased. The order of spandex market was reduced, and the market returned to a weak pattern.

The source of goods began to slowly accumulate, and prices gradually entered a downward path. However, the prices of excellent quality goods such as the state of Iraq and the Asahi Asahi are still relatively high and supply is slightly tense.