The Key Support For Us Cotton Prices Is 70.00-69.50 Cents.

New York

This week the trend is more similar than that of last week; grain prices strengthened, prompting a rise in overall commodities, and cotton continued to be consolidated in established trading ranges. So far, there has been insufficient energy to break through any recent resistance or support positions.

This week's trading gradually restored the loss of Tuesday, and the overall technology has not changed.

Implied volatility is still the same as last week. As people increasingly expect that the market will soon break through this trading range, prices are not expected to fall soon.

In view of the fact that the recent trading pattern has lasted for a long time, the market is more and more likely to break through this area.

People are speculating whether the market is going up or down.

The fundamentals of cotton itself are bad, the technology is not good or bad, slightly biased, and the external market is strong.

Technically, short-term important resistance remains at 72.50-73.40 cents (12 year December contract), with key support at 70.00-69.50 cents.

If we can resolutely break through these prices, the price of cotton will go up to 75.00-78.00 cents or touch 66.50-64.00 cents respectively.

The United States - most of the land in the United States has suffered the worst drought for decades, with varying degrees of drought in some places. Some places are suffering from prolonged drought.

According to official records, only the droughts in 1930s and 50s were so large.

In percentage terms, 63% of the United States now has moderate to extreme drought.

Cotton is lucky. Compared with last year, cotton is growing well, especially compared with the current corn growth in the United States.

At present, about 38% of the American corn is classified as a "poor range" grade, while only about 18% of cotton is classified as "poor range".

The problem of cotton is more of a comparison with competitive grain prices, especially the competition between crops next year, depending on the price.

For example, the new corn price at the beginning of the deal was traded at about $6.50 / bushel, and the soybean trade price was about $13 / bushel.

In contrast, 13 cotton in December

It's below 80 cents / pound.

If these cotton / grain spreads continue to expand in the rest of the year, the reduction of cotton land will be extensive next year, and not only the reduction of the cotton area in the United States.

India commodity futures rose sharply as the monsoon landing time was delayed and unstable, and people were more worried about crop loss.

Due to the delay of the monsoon peak season rainfall, the India commodity exchange has created a new contract for sugar, oil, soybeans and other crops. The government and industry officials in India have cut the output forecast.

At present, the government is still worried that the impact of rainfall reduction may deteriorate, and the Ministry of water and sanitation has been alerted. They noted that the water level in several States dropped sharply, instructing local officials to ensure that there would be no shortage of drinking water.

Gujarat is the most popular area in India. Seasonal rainfall is now reduced by about 21%. When the monsoon rainfall is less than 50 years, the average rainfall of 89 centimeters is 90%.

So far, the area of cotton planted in India has reached 8 million 200 thousand hectares, compared with 8 million 700 thousand hectares in the same period of last year.

There is no disaster yet, because there is still time to make up for the loss of rainwater. However, by the end of July or early August, there must be a good rain.

Pakistan - as of May 31st, Pakistan imported about 123000 tons of cotton from all parts of the world.

If the remaining two months of 2011/12 are calculated at this rate of imports, Pakistan will import about 150000 tons of foreign cotton.

About 30% of American cotton, 30% of India cotton, 25% of Brazil cotton, the remaining 15% includes cotton in Africa, Australia, Egypt and other countries.

So far, the weather has been very good.

Processing cotton is about 125000 bales.

Today's new cotton production

The estimate is about 15 million packets.

In the first half of 2012, the number of cotton yarn exports to China was high, so the starting rate of spinning mills was 100%.

The market trading range of China Zhengzhou commodity exchange has expanded slightly.

At the beginning of this week, the price tried to break through, but failed to build on the 19650 resistance level (13 January contract), and the price returned to the 19350 support position.

However, the market refused to go downhill and closed to a level of no rise or fall.

The main trend is still neutral.

China's major news this week is that the NDRC reiterated its previous policy statement and set an exact date of purchase (September 7th).

Therefore, textile mills and traders began to increase procurement of domestic cotton and cleared imported cotton.

The National Bureau of statistics released its yarn production data in June (including man-made fibres), totaling 2 million 830 thousand tons, an increase of 6% from last month, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.

Statistical subdivision shows that the market share of chemical fiber continues to increase.

After major rain in recent weeks, the main producing areas are

The drought in the Plains has now eased.