RMB Depreciation Benefit Industry Inventory Of Textile And Clothing Industry, A Long Drought, A Pleasant Rain.

RMB really

What's wrong? Whether the RMB devaluation is good or bad? Experts say that the probability of a significant depreciation of the RMB is very small. After the RMB's "five consecutive falls", many people speculate that the appreciation of the renminbi has already been reversed. However, some analysts have pointed out that the central intention of the national "safeguard plate" is very obvious from the central parity announced by the central bank.

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been decreasing in recent days, and its impact on related industries will also become increasingly apparent.

Analysts believe that the depreciation of the RMB has a more direct impact on the performance of export oriented companies, and that specific industries, including textiles and clothing, are expected to benefit directly.

Zhang Bin, an analyst with state securities, said in an interview with reporters that the depreciation of the renminbi is the best way to support the textile industry.

"Recently, ensuring employment is an important goal, and is also the meaning of the revitalization of light industry and textile industry.

However, the marketization of these two industries is too high, many enterprises are small and large, supporting policies are hard to put into practice, and it is very difficult to use administrative means to support precisely.

"The depreciation of the renminbi will bring direct benefits.

Jinyuan securities Xia Jun said that the depreciation of the RMB will stimulate the growth of the textile and garment industry.

The long term appreciation trend of the RMB has eaten some profits of some enterprises, and a large number of profits have been lost in the settlement of foreign exchange. Even some enterprises often appear to be negative profits after the export refund.

He believes that the RMB's end of three years of appreciation and the depreciation of the market will greatly stimulate the shrinking clothing and textile exports, which can be described as a series of policies to stimulate economic growth in the long drought, combined with the recent 4 trillion policies to stimulate domestic demand and reduce interest rates. These are of great significance to restore confidence in export enterprises, especially textile enterprises.

CITIC construction investment analyst Wang Zhe said that the current depreciation of the renminbi is beneficial to the steel industry's export of steel products, but it is not good news for enterprises to import iron ore, which means that the cost of payment has risen.

In recent months, due to the weakening of international market demand, China's steel exports have been on a downward trend, and export orders in the fourth quarter have dropped by 50%.

"My steel" Research Center analyst once said that as the international demand is weak, the direct export of the RMB depreciation will not be too obvious. However, there are many factors to consider when comparing the gains from the export of steel and the cost of imported iron ore. The calculation is more complicated.

In addition, we should also consider the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the appreciation of other currencies.

Zeng Sheng said that we should also see that the depreciation of RMB has an indirect effect on the downstream industries such as machinery, household appliances and other industries. If the export of these industries increases, the domestic steel market will improve.

Overall, the depreciation of the RMB should be more beneficial than the disadvantages to the steel industry.

Shipping industry: facing certain advantages

As the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continues to lower in the near future, the downstream shipping industry as an export industry may also benefit from this.

Many people in the industry said in an interview that the depreciation of the renminbi may stimulate exports of domestic textile industry and other sectors, thereby bringing some benefits to container shipping, and even stimulating the demand for raw materials to drive the dry bulk shipping market.

However, whether the demand of developed countries such as Europe and America can rise is the ultimate factor determining the prosperity of shipping industry.

China COSCO (joining the stock picking, participating in the simulation of stocks) said that the depreciation of RMB would have a driving effect on the domestic export industry.

At present, the export of textiles and other products is mainly dependent on container pportation. Therefore, once the export is active, the container pport market and docks will also improve.

The source further revealed that the current proportion of container and dry bulk revenue in total revenue is 30%-40%, but because of the fact that the boom in dry bulk market in the past two years is obviously higher than that in container, the profit contribution of container is less than that of dry bulk.

However, with the recent downturn in the dry bulk market, it is estimated that the proportion of profits contributed by the company will be more balanced next year.

Ji Yuntao, an analyst with CITIC Securities, believes that in addition to pulling the container business, the depreciation of the renminbi may also indirectly drive the dry bulk market.

Because our exports are mainly commodities.

Products, appliances and other products, if the export volume increases, for raw materials such as steel, petrochemical products and other needs will also increase, thereby enhancing the dry bulk market boom.

But Ji Yuntao also stressed that the key factor now lies in whether the demand of developed countries such as Europe and the United States will increase because of the depreciation of the renminbi.

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In the various factors that affect the development of chemical industry, the current trend of RMB devaluation is a link that can not be ignored.

Analysts believe that the depreciation of the renminbi will increase the purchasing cost of imported enterprises, but for export oriented chemical enterprises, it will play a role in adding fuel to the flames.

Zhang Zhihong, a petrochemical analyst with China Merchants Securities (joining in the stock picking and participating in the simulation of stocks), said that for some import oriented petrochemical enterprises, the continued appreciation of the yuan was undoubtedly a great benefit because it helped to reduce procurement costs.

But now that the yuan begins to depreciate, the impact on purchasing is negative, which means that its cost is rising.

On the other hand, the appreciation of the RMB has brought a great boost to the chemical fertilizer industry because the export proportion of the industry is quite large.

Taking nitrogen fertilizer as an example, its raw materials are mainly taken from the domestic market, and the domestic market has become saturated. The export volume of products is very large, and the positive impact of RMB depreciation is also greater.

"Zhang Zhihong said.

Although the import price of chemical fertilizer and sea freight will rise due to the depreciation of RMB, the export of other chemical fertilizers, such as diammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer and phosphate ore, will be stimulated with the depreciation of RMB.

The number of fertilizer exports is expected to be further enlarged due to the depreciation of the renminbi.

Appliance industry: help ease export pressure

Turning to the impact of devaluation on household appliances exports, Kuang Yubin, President of SKYWORTH Overseas Development Co., said that the most serious problem in the context of the current global financial crisis is the decline in demand.

Originally, the appreciation of the renminbi has led to a decline in competitiveness of export products overseas. Now the moderate depreciation of the renminbi is of great benefit to the export of products.

Because household appliance companies mostly use dollar settlement when they sell products, the depreciation of RMB can increase the exchange earnings of enterprises.

Wang Zhen, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that, first of all, the depreciation of the RMB is mainly against the US dollar. Compared with other currencies, the renminbi still appreciates. Therefore, the issue of appreciation or depreciation of the Renminbi should be considered from the perspective of balancing the package currency. Secondly, the depreciation of the national currency will definitely benefit the export of products, but the problem is that the external demand is relatively limited, so the price elasticity of demand is relatively weak.

However, in the short term, the depreciation of the RMB will definitely relieve some enterprises' pressure on exports.

Auto industry: export or rebound

As the yuan continues to depreciate against the US dollar, most auto exporters are under pressure.

Sun Muzi, an analyst at Anxin automobile, pointed out that with the continued depreciation of the RMB, auto export and export profits may rebound in the future.

Earlier, under the backdrop of the continued appreciation of the renminbi, China's export cars priced in US dollars became less expensive and cheaper.

At the same time, the profits of export automobile enterprises also began to decline.

In the second half of this year, China's vehicle exports are slowing down, estimated to be around 700 thousand vehicles due to the continued appreciation of the RMB and the financial crisis.

While the exchange rate affects exports, it will also restrict the domestic import vehicle market.

The industry is expected that with the depreciation of the renminbi, the attractiveness of imported car prices will drop, and the situation of imported car sales will also increase.

We believe that the current economic and policy environment is a great stimulus to the short-term performance of the export textile and garment industry.

We suggest that we pay attention to three potential textile stocks:

1. Zhejiang Fu run (600070): the company mainly produces spun silk and silk spun silk products. As a leading textile enterprise, especially the special characteristics of its products, the company has strong competition and development potential.

It is worth noting that the company has the concept of equity financing. The subsidiary company of Zhejiang Fu run printing and dyeing Co., Ltd. invested 45 million yuan to Shaoxing commercial bank, which was equivalent to 30 million shares.

In addition, Zhejiang Tongling cement group is a large cement enterprise specializing in cement sales, so it has a relatively authentic concept of cement.

2. Jiangsu three friends (002044): the company is one of the largest OEM and ODM high-end women's clothing manufacturers in China. Now it has the annual production capacity of 20 million sets of high-end fashion. It has launched 2000 independent design styles, and has been put into production by more than 600 brands. The 25% garments made by the company have been independently designed and developed.

3. Lu Tai A (000726): the company is a spinning and dyeing, bleaching and dyeing, weaving, finishing and clothing in a highly integrated production of textile enterprises, the leading products for shirts, colored woven fabrics and shirts.

More than 80% of the company's products.

The market covers Japan, South Korea, the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy and other more than 30 countries and regions, and is the world's largest production base of yarn dyed fabric.