Global Cotton Supply Tightens And Cotton Prices Rise

Domestic rainstorm has little effect on cotton.

Since July, the main production in China

The climate is suitable and the temperature is normal, but there are more rainfall in some areas, more rainstorms and less sunshine hours.

Recently, parts of Gansu's Hexi region, central Shaanxi, central Shanxi, southern Hebei, northern Shandong and other places experienced heavy rain, local and even heavy rainstorms.

Rainfall may lead to lodging in cotton fields and waterlogging in the fields.

Uneven distribution, drought and waterlogging coexist, including the local waterlogging in Hunan, Jiangxi and Hubei, and the drought and waterlogging in Anhui coexist. The drought value in Jiangsu was released before the early July, and the pests and diseases were generally lighter. The precipitation in North China was more than that of last year and the previous years. The cotton fields were waterlogged and some of the bolls and shreds were shedding. The conditions of northern China were better than those of the previous year, and the cotton growth process was fast. The Huaihe basin suffered from floods and droughts and floods, and the precipitation in Henan was more than that of last year and the whole year. Subregional perspective: rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin

Now is the time when cotton grows and blossomed, and not yet at harvest time.

Overall, the three major cotton producing areas in North China, Shandong, Henan and Hebei, may be affected by rainwater, but not very large. The cotton growth in the Yangtze River Valley and Xinjiang area is basically good.

Although the cotton area is decreasing this year, the yield per unit area is expected to increase.

Generally speaking, the current rainstorm weather has little effect on cotton production, and will not seriously affect the future cotton supply and demand pattern.

Tight global cotton supply

In August 1st, the US Department of Agriculture issued the latest statement that 1584 crops in 32 states were identified as the affected areas in 2011/12, of which 1452 counties were drought affected areas, and the drought affected areas continued to expand. The areas affected by moderate drought in the United States had expanded to 2/3.

This will seriously affect the growth of cotton and lead to the United States.

The growth rate of excellence decreased.

Judging from the historical law, the dry and hot weather will continue to November, and the US cotton exports are expected to be further lowered in the future.

The above factors will reduce the import of foreign cotton in China in the new year.

In addition, India, the world's largest cotton producer, is also suffering from weather.

As the monsoon rains slow down and rainfall decreases, India's near 1/3 area may suffer from drought.

In recent years, the global consumption of cotton in India has increased significantly, which is why the India cotton export policy is always changing.

Bad weather will greatly affect cotton production in India, and the supply of cotton will also be greatly reduced in the international market.

Although global consumption is weak at this stage, the global rigid demand is still there.

Therefore, the reduction of cotton production in India will lead to tight global supply.

Bad weather or pushing up cotton prices

Under the influence of bad weather in the world, crops have been reduced to varying degrees.

Under the combined effect of expected reduction in production and storage, cotton prices will enter a slow rising market.

At present, the spot market is basically stable and the price has not fluctuated.

Cotton price trend is still in a weak position in the short term.

If there is no continuous rainy weather and cotton production will not be substantially reduced, the main factor that will affect domestic cotton prices will be the adjustment of State purchasing and storage policy.

Textiles in the second half of the year

The export situation is still severe, the domestic market is not optimistic, and the operation of the industry is still facing great difficulties.

The relevant departments of the state have already deployed the preparatory work for new cotton storage and storage. If the market price is lower than the temporary purchase and storage price, the temporary purchase and storage plan will start on schedule.

If the purchase and storage policy starts again, cotton prices are expected to pick up.