China'S Cotton Collection And Storage In The New Year Is About To Start.

Since July 30th, the cotton index has been dropping 18514 points since August 7th, and has rebounded to 4.25% in August 7th.

Thanks to us economic data and China's upcoming acquisition and storage, ICE cotton index has gained 7.33% in the same period.

This reflects that when China's cotton collection and storage is about to begin in the new year, the role of policy support is obvious.

In order to stabilize market confidence, the relevant departments of the Chinese government have repeatedly stressed the "double and no" policy of collecting and storing prices unchanged in 2012 and at different times and occasions.

At present, all parties in the market are looking forward to the purchase and storage plan. The cotton price has been priced at 20400 yuan / ton close to storage and storage.

Macroeconomic policy adjustment, rising trend

In the first half of this year, under the influence of external economic environment turbulence, slow growth of global demand and China's own economic restructuring, China's investment, exports and consumption showed signs of slowdown in the three indicators.

In order to reverse the economic downturn and enhance market confidence, the Chinese government has taken various measures to adjust the domestic economy in the second half of the year.

Judging from the various economic indicators in July, the momentum of China's economic stabilization and recovery has begun to emerge, which has created conditions for the stability of domestic commodity prices.

In the first half of this year, China

It has experienced a very difficult period of operation in the past ten years.

According to the sampling survey of China cotton information network, as of the end of June, the yarn stock of textile enterprises increased from 17.11 days last month to 18.71 days, and the inventory of grey fabric increased from 27.81 days last month to 28.73 days, and the finished product inventory pressure was bigger.

Since the two quarter, the output of textiles has been decreasing month by month, of which the output of pure cotton yarn has dropped by 4.6% in June, and the output of synthetic yarn has dropped by 9.8%.

In the first half of this year, China's textile industry

Exports increased by only 1.63% over the same period last year, showing a downward trend of growth.

In terms of domestic sales, from 1 to June, the total retail sales of textile and garment industry increased by 16.9%, a sharp decline compared with 24.6% in the same period last year.

The reduction of production and discontinuation of textile and garment enterprises caused by the shrinking export and domestic sales is still emerging, and the whole industry has entered a brutal period of survival.

Downstream production slump will inevitably weaken the demand for raw cotton, and cotton prices have been running low for a long time.

Storage and storage may be carried out at the same time.

By the end of July, the market was widely rumored that the reserve cotton store was to vacate its storage capacity, ready to throw out some old cotton stocks.

From the perspective of storage capacity, throwing storage is not groundless.

Last year, we collected 3 million 130 thousand tons, imported 1 million tons this year, plus 300 thousand tons of carry over cotton in the previous year, and the number of national cotton reserves has reached 4 million 430 thousand tons.

At the end of the cotton year, some of the old cotton can be properly thrown out, which can meet the needs of textile enterprises and alleviate the pressure of storage and storage of new cotton.

Attention should be paid to the quantity of dumping and the impact of specific bidding methods on cotton prices.

If the quantity is large and the bidding method is special, the market pressure will increase, and the downward trend of cotton price will increase.

At the same time, whether additional quota should be issued at the end of the year to solve trade enterprises?

The bigger problem is to meet the demand of low cost cotton in textile enterprises.

The author believes that in the future, there is no possibility that the management will throw out Chen cotton or throw it in parallel. In the condition of sufficient annual supply, it is unlikely that the import quota will be added again, and the pressure of cotton rebounding will be relatively small in the future.

The weather is great in the period of yield formation.

The weather has been an important factor affecting the cotton price in China after the flood season. The cotton bull market in 2010 was induced by continuous rainfall in the cotton producing areas in the middle and late 8.

After entering the "seven lower eight" flood season this year, in addition to the short-term heavy rain in some cotton producing areas in northern Tianjin, Shandong and Hebei, there is no continuous rain and flood disaster in the Yangtze River Basin and Northwest China, especially in Xinjiang producing areas. Cotton growth is basically normal.

However, there may still be a change in yield caused by late weather.

In addition, severe drought in some cotton producing areas of the United States will also have a direct impact on the international cotton market, thereby indirectly affecting cotton prices in China.

To sum up, near the new cotton storage period, although the market is still worried about the cotton consumption prospects, but in China's purchasing and storage policy and the economic situation that is expected to turn better, the cotton price rebound market is expected to appear.