The Recent Decline In The Cotton Market Has Not Changed Significantly.

New York cotton - this week

Quite calm, cotton prices in the 200 point trading area to consolidate last week's losses.

The volume of cotton trade is decreasing.

The recent spreads have not changed significantly, but they are still relatively tight.

At the end of this year / early next year, the ICE certification stock may increase, which should eventually force the price gap to disappear.

Short term charts indicate that the current / recent market dynamics are shaping a downward trend.

Closing below 72.00-71.50 cents may confirm this.

The resistance level is 73.70 cents, the first key point is 75 cents, and the second key point is 77.00-77.50 cents.

The outlook for mid term technology graphics has not changed.

For example, the market starting from the low point in June seems to be corrective rather than changing.

The critical resistance kept the view intact, allowing the contract to remain between 79 and 83.50 cents in December for 12 years.

The US Department of Agriculture issued the first report on cotton production forecast in 2012 and made a thorough analysis. It is never too early to observe the prospects of the 2013/14 sales year.

The report shows that more planting areas will be reduced, not only in the United States, but also in Australia, Brazil and Argentina later this year. The planting area will also decrease as the northern hemisphere enters spring next year.

Futures prices for corn, soybeans and wheat rose, and grain and oilseeds were signed in the long term.

We expect that the cotton planting area in Western Dezhou will also decrease significantly, with a drop of nearly 20%.

As a base year, we compare 2013 to 2007. In 2007, Dezhou's cotton planting area was 4900000 acres, which was 23% lower than that in 2006.

In short, suppose that the American planting area has been reduced to about 9 million 500 thousand acres, which is the smallest area in the United States in 2008 and 2009.

Output is still around 15 million packs.

Coupled with the current forecast of 2012/13 carry over inventory, the United States will have a supply of 20 million packets, which is hardly a bullish situation, at least before global consumption begins to catch up with output.

Last week, India Gujarat reported that it was raining and the overall lack of rain was improved. However, the rain in Saurashtra tra and katchi areas in Gujarat is still insufficient.

These areas account for about 65% of the total cotton output in Gujarat.

Its cotton planting area has been reduced and its planting area is 2 million 240 thousand hectares, compared with 2 million 900 thousand hectares last year.

According to local media reports, the Prime Minister of India will convene the relevant ministerial meeting to formulate a cotton export policy to ensure that domestic cotton mills' demand for cotton will not be stripped from next year (beginning in October).

China - the market rebounded to the upper end of the two and a half months of trading last week. After that, the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange market did not improve.

The price has been shrinking and nearly 19650 resistance level (13 year January contract), closing basically no rise or fall.

Short term energy turn to neutral, the main trend is still bearish.

CNCE trading is slack, and the technological outlook has not changed significantly.

Rumors about putting cotton reserves are gradually disappearing and replaced by other claims. Now it is rumored that the quota of processing trade may be increased.

However, demand is still sluggish and sales of yarn and textiles are still sluggish.

According to customs data, China imported 406 "000 tons of cotton" in July, so that the total annual import volume of 11/12 crops totaled 5 million 340 thousand tons.

The weather is generally good in cotton producing areas.

Cotton picking in southern Xinjiang and Hubei is expected to be better this year.

Xinjiang began picking cotton by machine, so this year

The time to enter the market is expected to accelerate.