Discussion On Domestic Demand And Development Pressure Of China's Textile And Garment Industry

In 2012, affected by the economic slowdown, the price level will return to normal. Spin clothing Industry growth is slower than in 2011, but a slight recovery will ensure that the industry can still grow at a certain rate.

The industry situation is not optimistic in 2012. The shrinkage of demand is a constraint on China's textile industry. Garment industry The main cause of export performance, coupled with the effect of product price increase in 2012, will be further weakened. The export growth rate of industry is expected to continue to fall on the basis of high base in 2011.

In 2011, China's textile and clothing export data were good as a result of the price increase driven by raw materials. In 2012, faced with many unfavorable factors such as foreign economic downturn, domestic economic slowdown, cost advantage weakening, RMB appreciation and so on, China's textile and garment processing enterprises will undergo a shuffle process to accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading to adapt to the transformation of business environment.

　　 Export growth continues to fall

The European debt crisis and the fall of cotton prices and other reasons led to the reduction of orders, and the two uncertainties, such as foreign demand and cotton prices, which still exist. In 2012, the performance of export manufacturing companies will be negatively affected.

In fact, textile in 2011. Clothing export Both retail sales volume and domestic sales have maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the performance of the industry has shown a "high before and low" attitude. In this case, there are two main factors that affect the performance of textile export manufacturing companies, namely the shrinkage of foreign demand and the fall of cotton prices. Since the price of cotton has dropped considerably, the textile and garment export enterprises in the second half of 2011 have not been optimistic about their orders, and the stock of enterprises has increased. The fall in cotton prices has led to a decline in the prices of products. At the same time, enterprises need time to digest the high priced cotton purchased in the early stage, so they have a certain impact on gross profit margins.

The recovery of international major economies has been sluggish since April 2011. Among them, in addition to the relatively stable internal demand after Japan's disaster, the US economic activity was weaker than expected, the residents' actual purchasing power was weaker, and the further spread of the European sovereign debt crisis made it still not optimistic in 2012. The shrinkage of demand is the main reason that restricts the export performance of China's textile and garment industry. In addition, the effect of product price increase will weaken further next year. It is estimated that the export growth rate of industry will continue to fall on the basis of the high base in 2011 in 2012.

　 Domestic demand is relatively stable.

From the perspective of domestic demand, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2011 1~10 increased by 17% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of clothing consumption in 100 large shopping malls was 24.1%, and the growth rate in October declined significantly. In November, affected by the warmer weather, the sales of clothing retail terminals were weak, but the weather turned cold in December. At the same time, affected by the promotion of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of the retail terminal was faster.

Although the overall retail sales of clothing and home textiles continued to grow steadily, the increase in 2011 was mainly due to the rise in commodity prices, rather than the sharp rise in sales. In 2011, the retail price of clothing was higher and the sales volume of shopping malls increased little. The increase in sales volume induced by price increases may inhibit sales volume. Therefore, the growth rate of retail sales in the second half of this year has slowed down.

In the long run, the market space of clothing home textiles is still very large, but because of the relatively stable terminal demand, the market will not rise sharply.

Although the domestic demand market will be relatively stable, enterprises still need to be cautious about channel inventory problems. In addition, in 2011, the capital of private enterprises was very tight. The inventory problem of enterprises was more obvious, especially the decrease of cotton prices, which led to the reduction of orders, which led to the continuous increase of inventory. Whether export or domestic enterprises have problems such as increasing inventory, increasing accounts receivable and poor cash flow. It is expected that this situation will still be difficult to improve in the short term.

　 　 Clothes & Accessories Consumption will slow down

In 2011, benefiting from high inflation and increasing manufacturing costs, China's textile and garment enterprises passed the cost raising mechanism well to the downstream, 1~9 month clothing, shoes The total retail sales of cap and needle textiles reached a high growth rate of nearly 25%. In September, the retail sales volume increased by 27.60% in a single month. However, under the influence of warm winter weather and economic level, the overall sales in October and November declined somewhat compared with the first three quarters. In November, retail sales rose by 22.5% in the single month, up 3 percentage points from the October sales growth rate, mainly due to the lowest base in November last year. At the end of the year, Christmas or other holiday factors or consumption rebounded.

Inflation downward, or will ease the clothing consumption price deviates from the situation. Up to October, the continuous improvement of prices was the initiative to support the growth of retail sales. However, there was a serious departure from the sales volume of clothing, some of which even suffered negative growth. Taking the sales data of the 100 major retail enterprises in China as an example, the price decline has been more obvious since the high retail prices in April 2011. By the end of October, the scissors gap between volume and price growth has expanded from 9.20 percentage points at the end of the first quarter to 23.87 percentage points. But with the gradual release of inflationary pressures and the factors of discounts, the trend of clothing and clothing consumer price index in November also turned a slight downward trend, while the sales decline also narrowed correspondingly.

As cotton prices gradually return to normal prices, the fall in the cost of production will make the factory price adjust, especially at the front of the industrial chain. textile Price volatility is more sensitive, factory price index has been declining for 7 consecutive months, in November, the monthly ratio fell 4.94%. Although there is a process of price transmission in the industrial chain, the factory price index of clothing, shoes and caps and the retail price index of various categories are still relatively stable, but the pressure has already appeared.

It is expected that the price level of the industry will return to normal level in 2012, and the price increase will slow down for enterprises with the ability to raise prices, and there may also be a certain price fall for brands that are not competitive and have a lower market position.