Current Situation Of Cotton Market: Cotton Is Seriously Affected In Some Coastal Areas, And Xinjiang Has A Bumper Harvest Year.

In recent years, domestic cotton The ups and downs of prices are like fog. New cotton is coming to market this year. What will the price of cotton be? Is it up or down? Recently, the author made an investigation of the cotton industry in Dezhou, Shandong.

　 Low yield of seed cotton and decreased enthusiasm for planting cotton

　　 Texas It is one of the key cotton producing areas in China. The annual cotton planting area is 2 million ~300 mu. In recent years, however, the cotton planting area has been greatly reduced, from 2 million 900 thousand mu in 2008 to 1 million 550 thousand mu in 2010, and slightly increased in 2011, and this year it has dropped to 1 million 440 thousand mu. The main reason for the decrease of cotton area is the decrease of comparative efficiency of cotton seed. In recent years, grain production has basically been mechanized and its income has been considerable. Cotton planting is still mainly artificial, with only one season in a year, and the income is not high. Taking 2011 as an example, the output value of Mu is 235 yuan, the average selling price is 7.60 yuan / kg, and the output value of Mu is 1786 yuan. According to the farmers' own land and their own cotton picking, it does not include labor cost, the direct planting cost is 480 yuan / mu, and the mu income is 1306 yuan, which is less than 300 yuan of grain income. If it is calculated on the basis of renting and hiring cotton, the income per mu is only 476 yuan, which is far lower than the grain income. In addition, only 15 yuan per mu of cotton seed subsidy is available, and the subsidies for grain crops reach 100 yuan per mu. In terms of planting efficiency, cotton planting has not attracted much attention, and the cotton area in Dezhou will probably decrease in the future.

In recent times, Dezhou suffered heavy rains. In July and August, the critical period of cotton boll forming is continuous. The continuous rainfall has a great influence on cotton growth. The cotton output is expected to decrease by 15%~20% over the normal year.

　　 There is little room for cotton prices to rise or fall this year.

This year, the cotton planting area in Dezhou has been reduced, and cotton production has been cut down. Some cotton farmers believe that cotton prices will rise. Will cotton prices go up?

The current cotton market is no longer a province or a city. market We must consider the issue from the perspective of the whole country and even the whole world. This year Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin and other parts of cotton disaster, but Xinjiang (about half of the country's cotton output) is a bumper harvest year. According to the data provided by the US Department of agriculture, the total output of cotton in the year 2012 is 24 million 840 thousand tons and the total demand is 23 million 540 thousand tons, when the annual supply exceeds 1 million 300 thousand tons.

　　 Spin The industry is seriously depressed and the amount of cotton used has dropped significantly. Since the end of February this year, domestic cotton yarn prices have continued to decline. Due to rising production costs and declining yarn prices in recent two years, the production of pure cotton yarn in small and medium-sized textile enterprises is generally at a loss. In order to reduce costs, some enterprises increase the amount of chemical fiber, resulting in a reduction in cotton consumption. According to the survey, the total demand for cotton in the past few years is around 10 million 500 thousand tons, and only about 8 million 500 thousand tons now, down by about 20%.

The difference between domestic and foreign cotton is bigger. Since the second half of 2011, cotton prices have been relatively stable due to domestic cotton purchase and storage policy, while cotton prices in the international market have continued to decline. The lowest price of cotton to port is 5000 yuan / ton compared with domestic cotton prices at the same level, and the current price difference is around 4000 yuan / ton. This makes domestic textile enterprises willing to use outer cotton instead of domestic cotton, a large quantity of cotton and pressure port, and few domestic cotton.

Purchase and storage support domestic cotton prices. In order to stabilize the market price of cotton and protect the interests of farmers, the state implemented a temporary purchasing and storage policy starting from the launch of new cotton in September 2011. When the price of standard grade (three level) cotton was lower than 19800 yuan / ton for 5 consecutive working days, the state purchased it at 19800 yuan / ton. In total, 3 million 130 thousand tons were collected in 2011, accounting for 43% of the total cotton output in the year. With the continuous decline of international cotton prices, the policy of purchasing and storage has ensured the relative stability of domestic cotton prices and safeguarded the interests of farmers. At the beginning of April this year, the state promulgated the cotton purchase and storage policy in 2012, raising the storage price to 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous year.

Because of the large global stock of cotton in 2011 and oversupply in 2012, it is difficult for domestic textile enterprises to produce and operate for more than a year. Therefore, the possibility of domestic cotton prices going up sharply is very small, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton will be narrowed. With the support of State purchasing and storage policy in 2012, cotton prices will not drop significantly. The overall level of cotton prices should be stabilized at around 20000 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the purchase price of seed cotton is flat or slightly higher than that of last year, and the possibility of a sharp rise is very small.