September 5, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20422 yuan / ton; 229 level 19576 yuan / ton; 328 level 18666 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17791 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot prices tend to be stable, and downstream yarns have rebounded slightly.

Recently, the state will throw the store and auction the Xinjiang cotton as the main way to take up the bid. The recent high-grade lint is more tight, and the final paction price will be in line with the spot.

3. imported cotton: in September 4th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port remained stable, and prices of all varieties remained unchanged.

At present, textile factories focus on national dumping and storage, especially the textile factories with insufficient quota.

4. cotton reserve pactions: 4 days, the number of cotton reserves was 40054.48 tons, the actual turnover was 32894.97 tons, and the turnover rate was 82.13%, an increase of 11163.95 tons compared with that of yesterday. The average daily turnover of cotton reserves was 2.95, an increase of 0.11 over the previous day, an average length of 27.88, a decrease of 0.02 compared with yesterday, and a turnover of 328 yuan at a 328 yuan / ton (public weight), up from yesterday's yuan / ton (public weight), which was higher than the CC Index price ratio of RMB / ton on that day.

5.ICE cotton: in September 4th, ICE phase cotton was opened up after being depressed by selling, December contract once explored the 20 day moving average, the drop finally surpassed 100 points.

The US dollar index rose to make the market environment as empty as possible. At the same time, the market worried that China's demand for foreign cotton was weakened due to the selling of cotton reserves.

In the near future, the resistance of ICE futures is very large, and the early accumulation of many bulls may continue to choose profits.

Summary:

In the downturn of global economic growth and the difficult problem of global cotton demand in the long term, it is difficult to solve the three tier structure of global cotton prices.

The cotton processors, which meet the requirements of storage and storage, assume the role of cotton porters between China's cotton social circulation price and purchase and storage prices, and the driving force for them is money and money. When the price difference is not enough to cover the cost, the pport power will no longer exist.

In this sense, before the global cotton demand has obviously improved, the circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price, but closing up does not mean that it can be achieved.

Operation continues on the basis of 20 days and 40 day average line to do more thinking. Recently, the United States cotton has little influence on Zheng cotton.

[GF futures]

[market performance]

Us Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell 2% on Tuesday, the index of cotton CTZ2 fell 1.58 cents in December, or 2%, at 75.68 cents a pound, trading in the range of 75.27-77.29 cents. China's manufacturing data were weaker than expected, igniting concerns about the weakening demand of the world's largest cotton consumers.

The Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange cotton 1301 contract closed at 19540 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Trading volume decreased slightly to 84614 hands, and positions increased by 1050 to 254618.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull.

The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19400 yuan, and the three grade cotton index price is 18587 yuan / ton, which rose 36 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

[industry news]

New flowers began to be listed sporadically, due to the fact that the amount of seed cotton harvested was limited and the purchase amount was small.

328 for 18587 yuan / ton, up 36 yuan / ton; 527 for 16246 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton; 229 index is 19537 yuan / ton, up 31 yuan / ton.

[operation suggestion]

Under the influence of weak storage and China's manufacturing index, Zheng cotton has been bumping on the Brunn corridor 19700 near a few days later, but there is no need to worry too much. Under the 19500 support, it is recommended to hold more than one, and to stop below 19300.

[Wanda futures] low economic data and China's dumping to make us cotton down

China's manufacturing industry data released early in the month was less than expected, and a slowdown in new orders was a serious drag on China's manufacturing recovery, which ignited investors' worries about demand, while the Chinese government started selling reserves in September, the increase in demand and supply caused ICE cotton to fall after the small holiday, and the December contract fell 1.58 cents to 75.68 cents a pound, extending the 75-77.5 cent / pound cross region, such as 75 cents / pound of support, that cotton prices would continue to fall, otherwise ICE cotton would continue to challenge 77.5 cents / pound pressure.

Tuesday ICE cotton mid Yin closed, the main contract in December challenged 77.5 cents / pound pressure failed, but the closing is still stable 75 cents / pound and the short-term average, the medium and short term average line system continues to rise in a row, while KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a row, the upward trend has not changed.

However, the two index has the trend of adhesion forming a short order, and the MACD index red column continues to shorten, the callback pressure increases, such as 75 cents / pound support failure, the decline will continue, otherwise ICE cotton will continue to rise.

On the 4 th, China plans to throw 40054 tons of storage, and actually throw 32894 tons of storage. The average paction price is only 18693 yuan / ton, the highest price is 19370 yuan / ton, two tons accumulated 54626 tons, and the final number of dumping may be higher than the previous market rumors of 20-30 million tons.

Constitute pressure.

However, with the increase in the number of participating companies, the volume and paction price will continue to rise. At the same time, the market will receive the storage conditions next week. The 20400 yuan / ton storage will be launched in full. According to the current market situation, the cotton will enter a large quantity in the new year. The reduction of circulation resources will make cotton prices close to the price of 20400 yuan / ton. At the same time, the market funds will turn to 1305 contracts, and the 1305 contract will be stronger than the recent contracts. Therefore, although Zheng cotton is callback, it should not be pessimistic. It is recommended that we continue to hold 1305 contracts and pay more attention to the pressure level of 19700 yuan / ton supporting position and 20000 yuan / ton.