Analysis Of The Current Situation And Future Development Trend Of China'S Textile Industry Economy

August 30th, China

The Federation of industry held the third economic operation conference of the textile industry in 2012. Sun Huaibin, deputy secretary general and director of the news center, introduced the economic performance of the textile industry in the first half of 2012 to the media, and pointed out that the textile industry is facing a grim situation this year.

Media reporters in Beijing attended the press conference.

Since 2012, the textile industry has continued the trend of economic growth since last year due to factors such as sluggish external demand, slowing domestic demand and increasing cotton price spreads at home and abroad. The growth rate of major economic indicators such as production, exports and investment has continued to slow down and the efficiency has declined.

At present, the whole industry continues to respond positively to external risks through measures such as deepening structural adjustment and strengthening industry self-discipline. It also expects relevant national policy support to help the textile industry return to a stable and healthy development track as soon as possible.

1. Current economic operation characteristics of the textile industry

1. production deceleration. Since 2012, the growth rate of textile industry has been slowing down. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total industrial output value of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 3 trillion and 146 billion 710 million yuan in 1~7 months, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 18.8 percentage points over the same period last year, down 3.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

In the major categories of products, the output of upstream products decreased more rapidly. The output of chemical fiber and cloth increased by 12.4% and 10.8% respectively over the same period of 1~7 months, representing a decrease of 3.8 and 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 1.1 and 5.4 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. The yarn production increased by 12.9% over the same period last year, representing a 1.7 percentage point increase over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

The output growth rate of terminal products has picked up, 1~7 clothing output increased by 11.8% over the same period last year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 3.9 percentage points higher than the first quarter of this year.

2. domestic sales have dropped.

Affected by the slowing down of domestic macro-economic growth and the continuous high price level, the growth of domestic consumption of textiles and clothing has declined since 2012.

In 1~7 months, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 17% over the same period last year, down 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. If the price factor is deducted, the actual growth rate of retail sales is 13%, down 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

Textile production enterprises in the textile industry above the scale of 1~7 months amounted to 2 trillion and 577 billion 30 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year, down 20.3 percentage points from the same period last year, down 3.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

3. the export pressure is great. Due to the low international market demand, the continuous increase of cotton price difference at home and abroad, and the continuous rise in production costs of enterprises, the pressure of textile and clothing export in China has increased significantly since 2012.

According to customs statistics, China exported $141 billion 580 million of textiles and clothing in 1~7 months, an increase of only 0.3% over the same period last year, down 25 percentage points from the same period last year, down 3.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

If the price rise factor is deducted, the actual export volume of the textile industry is negative growth. In 1~7 months, the export price of China's textile and clothing increased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the volume of exports decreased by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, down 5 percentage points from the same period last year.

4., investment is slowing down. Affected by the slowdown in the industrial economy, investment confidence in textile enterprises has declined, investment growth has slowed down and new construction projects have been reduced.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2012 1~7, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the textile industry totaled more than 5 million yuan, 416 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 16.9% over the same period last year, a decrease of 19.5 percentage points from the same period last year, and 7945 new projects, a decrease of 9.4% over the same period last year, down 6.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

Despite the slow growth of the whole industry investment, the new investment in the central and western regions has maintained a relatively fast growth. The investment in the textile industry in the central region increased by 18.7% over the period 1~7, representing a 30.5% share of the whole country, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase over the same period last year. The investment in the western region increased by 19.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 8% of the total proportion of the whole country, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

5. the benefit fell.

Since 2012,

The production efficiency of the industry continued to increase, and the labor productivity of Enterprises above designated size increased by 12.7% in 1~6 months, providing support for resolving various risks.

However, due to the concentration of external adverse factors, the pressure of enterprise development is too high, and the industry efficiency has declined compared with the same period last year.

In 1~6 months, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 114 billion 790 million yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 43.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the sales profit margin was 4.5%, down 0.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

The loss of enterprises is 18.4%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 124.1% over the same period last year.

In the sub sectors, cotton spinning and chemical fiber are affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials. The profits of the industries are all showing a negative growth trend. The 1~6 chemical fiber industry has dropped by 52.3%, and the profits of 105 key cotton textile enterprises have dropped by 52.1%.

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Two, 2012 textile industry operation trend

1. domestic demand growth is expected to increase

Since 2012, the growth rate of domestic demand for textiles and clothing has slowed down compared with the same period last year, due to the slowdown in domestic macroeconomic growth.

However, the income of urban and rural residents is still growing steadily. In the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita cash income of rural residents increased by 9.7% and 12.4% respectively, which provided the fundamental driving force for the growth of domestic demand, and the expansion of domestic demand is still an important starting point for macroeconomic regulation and control policies.

Recently, domestic monetary policy has been relaxed and prices have gradually stabilized. With the further effect, domestic consumption growth will play a positive role.

On the whole, although the growth rate of clothing consumption is still lower than that of the previous year, the growth rate will gradually increase, and the pulling effect on the textile industry will also gradually increase.

2. overall downturn in the international market

The reduction of foreign demand leads to insufficient order in export enterprises, which is an important factor affecting the operation of the textile industry.

According to relevant statistics, in the first half of 2012, the total value of imports of textiles and clothing from the EU decreased by 6.9% over the first half of the year. The total import volume of textiles and clothing in the United States approached zero growth. The import volume of Japanese textile and clothing increased by only 2.2% over the same period last year, down 10.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and the international market demand was generally depressed.

Affected by the continuing deterioration of the European debt crisis, the recovery of the international market is still facing higher risks. The latest forecast released by the International Monetary Fund in mid July will reduce the global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% in 2012, indicating that the prospects for global economic recovery are not optimistic.

It is expected that in 2012, the international market will continue to be sluggish. Textile industry exports still lack market power to stabilize and improve.

3. cotton prices remain prominent.

Since 2012, domestic cotton prices have always been higher than the international market and the price differentials have been widening. As of mid August, domestic cotton prices have been more than 5000 yuan higher than the international market per ton, and the spread has increased by 67% compared with the beginning of the year.

According to the market demand and supply situation, it is hard to predict the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices in the near future, and the new cotton temporary purchase and storage policy is about to start.

4., there are still many risk factors. Speeding up self adjustment is still an important task.

At present, all kinds of pressure factors that have been affecting the development of the industry in recent years still exist.

The cost of production and other production factors of textile enterprises continued to increase. According to the survey, the per capita wages in the textile industry increased by about 15% over the first half of the year. Statistics show that domestic fuel power prices increased by 3% over the same period last month in 1~7.

The problem of financing difficult to raise funds has not yet been completely solved, and the cost of financing remains high. In the first half of this year, interest payments for Enterprises above designated size increased by 29.5% over the same period last year, which is 19.8 percentage points higher than that of the main business revenue growth over the same period.

Coupled with the continued downturn in external demand and the fluctuation of raw material prices, the overall operation of the industry is still facing many risks. Further deepening industrial restructuring, accelerating pformation of development mode and resolving various external risks from the root cause are still fundamental tasks facing the whole industry.

5., the industry's economic growth will continue to fall, but the rate of decline will gradually slow down.

Domestic demand

Under the support of the industry, the main production and marketing indicators will continue to grow.

However, under the circumstances that the international market demand is hard to improve obviously, the domestic production costs continue to rise and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the export pressure of the industry is still outstanding, which will further drive the growth of production and sales of the industry.

Because the price trend of cotton is not clear at home and abroad, the negative growth of textile industry is difficult to reverse.

However, with the gradual increase in domestic demand and the decline in the number of statistics in the same period last year, the rate of decline in production and sales growth is expected to gradually decrease.