September 19, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 18 days, it was approved by the national development and Reform Commission and other departments. In view of the large number of new flowers listed, the reserve will be closed on the 29 th of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

3. imported cotton: in September 18th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port generally declined, of which West African cotton and India cotton fell 0.75 cents, while the United States cotton fell 0.8 cents.

At present, the market wait-and-see sentiment is very strong, especially the United States launched the QE3 triggered a sharp rise in the commodity market, so that cotton prices and demand are seriously disconnected, directly affecting the textile mill's interest in cotton shopping.

Judging from the market situation, the downstream demand is difficult to pick up in the short term, and cotton prices will continue to fall to cater to the needs of the market.

4. cotton throwing storage: on the 18 day, it was approved by the national development and Reform Commission and other departments. In view of the large number of new flowers listed, the reserve will be closed on the 29 th of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

5. the purchase and storage of new cotton: in September 14th, China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 50000 tons of cotton in 2012, and the actual turnover is 1520 tons, with a turnover rate of 3.04%.

6.ICE cotton: September 18th,

There was no obvious news. The commodity market generally fell, but the ICE cotton trend rose. The December contract fluctuated more than 75 cents a day. The settlement price broke through 76 cents and recovered the 20 day moving average.

Summary:

At the same time, the storage and storage of the reservoir is carried out at the same time, the price is different.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve.

The national cotton situation analysis confirmed that the dumping will be closed on the 29 day of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

Operation continues

Low strategy, focus on the 20 day moving average.

However, the current cotton fundamentals do not support the continuous rise of Zheng cotton, and we must be cautious when we catch up with high prices.

Wanda futures] US cotton is independent of commodities.

Although investors reassessed the impact of the Fed's monetary easing policy on the market, international commodities continued to fall sharply, but this low ICE cotton was not affected too much. Supported by the rise in China's cotton prices, cotton on Tuesday evening ICE rebounded on the back of speculative buying. In December, the contract rose 0.69 to 76.02 cents / pound, and cotton prices remained stable 75 cents / pound, continuing the high side pattern.

But the global downturn in demand for cotton oversupply has not changed. The end of the global stock market has continued to record high. At present, cotton prices do not have the basis for a substantial increase, and continue to focus on the 75-77.5 / cent market.

Monday ICE cotton Xiao Yang closed, the main contract in December stabilized 75 cents / pound and the short-term average, the medium and short term average line system maintained a long rise in order, the rebound is expected to continue.

However, KD and MACD indicators still continue to fall short, MACD index green column shortening, the market is in a weak position, the rebound is not Cola view, ICE cotton continues high shock probability is bigger, attention 75-77.5 cents / pound horizontal area.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton increased its volume to increase its position. However, the rise did not meet the basic requirements. Only 45006 tons of storage were sold in 22015 tons, with a turnover rate of only 48.92%, indicating that there was no improvement in downstream consumption. The downturn in demand constrained the demand for raw materials for textile enterprises, and some enterprises had enough raw materials to maintain until the end of the year.

Although Zheng cotton is still below the 20400 yuan / ton storage price, at present, the acquisition cost of Xinjiang is generally around 19000 yuan / ton, and the cost difference between part of the enterprise cost and zhengmian 1301 is 1500 yuan / ton. If the storage can not be carried out smoothly, under the pressure of spot sales pressure, zhengmian will be subject to the selling and selling pressure. On Tuesday, there has been a hedge market.

In this case, yes.

The rise is not a coke view, the high back by 20000 yuan / ton pressure level continues to increase 1301 contracts empty list, short-term target 19400 yuan / ton line.