The Demand For Textile And Garment Industry Has Not Been Improved And The Balance Sheet Concern Has Been Improved.

Market review last week.

Last week, A shares continued to run sideways after the continuation of the pre holiday rally. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.50%.

Yes

Plate, the performance of the plate obviously outperformed the market, textile and garment sector rose 2.44%, of which apparel home textiles rose 1.97%, textile manufacturing rose 3%.

After an overly pessimistic valuation of the plate, the three quarterly good news is expected to drive a stage rebound. It is expected that the Q1-Q3 of some companies will increase by 40%+. The trend of Q4 will also look at the recent sales of home textile orders and the sales of autumn and winter clothing.

Industry key data.

Raw material price: the average price of the 328 grade cotton spot week is 18679 yuan / ton, increasing by 0.07%; the average price of polyester and short weeks is 11060 yuan / ton, or 0.06%, and the viscosity is short 14672 yuan / ton, or 0.60%.

Domestic cotton prices remain small trend, mainly in the policy of purchasing and storage.

As of 12 days, the total amount of storage and storage has reached 774 thousand tons.

Internationally, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released the October cotton supply and demand report data blank, the international cotton prices fell, resulting in a small increase in cotton price difference inside and outside.

In September, textile and clothing exports increased by 9.33% over the same period (the month's growth rate was 6-8 after March).

Last week's important announcement and recent follow up.

Pathfinder forecast Q1-3 revenue of 624 million yuan, an increase of 45% over the same period (corresponding to Q3 revenue growth rate of 35%), net profit of 81 million 300 thousand yuan, an increase of 51% over the same period (corresponding to Q3 net profit increase of 114.80% in the current quarter), and the company made a pretax of Q1-3 income tax on the basis of 25% tax rate.

Kaiser shares and Chao Hongji net profit growth have been revised down to negative growth.

The Q3 growth rate of some companies in the single quarter is better than that of Q2, such as long Zi, Carlo NDI Road, search for special, Pathfinder, etc.

During the eleven period (7 days of comparable sales), the sale of the card road was increased by 30% compared with the same period last year. The time passed by the Pathfinder increased by 70%+ over the same period.

We maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating for the industry.

As the terminal did not appear obvious reversal signal, last week, the textile and clothing sector did not rebound with the strong rebound of the market, the rise this week is due to the good expectations of the three quarterly report.

We believe that, because the terminal demand has not yet improved, the industry's favorable performance in the short term is mainly due to the three quarterly earnings growth of some listed companies announced in October.

The quality of the balance sheet and the order data of home textile industry.

Last week, we made a good combination. In the short term, we recommend the listed companies - Card slave Road, good news bird, AOKANG international, Longzi shares and seven wolves.

Card NDI road is in the rapid expansion phase of the channel. The expansion of the extension led the company's strong growth. It is expected that it will continue to expand rapidly next year.

The news bird is expected to work hard to complete the increase in the near future, and the valuation is at the bottom of history.

AOKANG underestimated international value and expanded the speed of channel expansion in 2012.

The investment logic and the profit growth rate are consistent with expectations. The annual profit forecast has not been adjusted. The short-term pressure mainly comes from the reduction of small holdings, while the third quarterly inventory is concerned.

After the issuance is completed, considering the order, cost control and interest income, the performance growth rate in 2013 is the most significant.