Cotton Demand Outlook Is Still Not Optimistic. How Should Cotton Industry Chain Run?

At the end, turnover and turnover both declined, and the demand outlook was not optimistic. The state bought and sold over 3 million tons, but under the trend that it was difficult to normalize the purchase and storage, Zheng cotton's short selling was the best policy.

Heaven and the United States maintain high yield

According to the latest national cotton market monitoring survey results, the whole cotton growth in China is a normal year, and the cotton yield per unit area has increased slightly.

The average cotton production per unit area in China increased by 97.4 kg / mu in 2012, an increase of 2.5% over the previous year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared with the August survey results, with an acreage of 71 million 787 thousand mu, a decrease of 9.6% over the previous year. The total output of 6 million 992 thousand tons, a decrease of 7.4% over the previous year, was 1 percentage points higher than the August forecast.

(according to the research results of Jinshi futures on new cotton market in Xinjiang area in 2012/13, the planting area in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02% last year, but the weather was good. Cotton production increased by 8.25% compared with last year, and the output was estimated at 379-400 tons.

The total output does not support the uplink of cotton prices.

The storage capacity should not be neglected.

The storage capacity of the current year was established under the condition of 4 million 500 thousand tons of existing inventory. The storage capacity can not be ignored. Therefore, with the passage of time, the support strength of purchasing and storage policy has been weakened.

By the end of November 8th, the state had accumulated 2 million 180 thousand tons of storage, plus more than 3 million tons of contracted storage between China cotton and China cotton and corps, accounting for more than 40% of the country's output.

The process of collecting and storing is so fast, but the performance of spot is very calm. The daily increase keeps one digit, and the cotton information network CC328 quotes 18742 yuan / ton.

At the same time, from the revised 60 point price storage rules, the effect of open storage is greatly reduced.

The shortage of high-grade cotton resources will not exist.

If the storage capacity is 5 million tons this year, the market circulation of cotton is nearly 2 million tons. On the face of it, cotton is scarce.

But the premise of the shortage is that the state does not throw away the reserves, but dumping is already a fact.

It is hoped that the "short cotton loss" will raise the price of cotton, but the shortage of cotton does not exist. New flowers will arrive at the port near the end of the year in India, and the competition from the Xinjiang corps and the 40% customs clearance and customs clearance will provide cotton resources for the market.

Step back: Although the textile enterprises respond to the lack of cotton, but not the lack of initiative, is passive, because of the lack of high price storage in the country, is a lack of price mismatch.

Return to supply and demand price matching, at present, under the condition of bad demand, only the country comes forward rather than the price raised by the textile enterprises.

"How will the cotton chain run at high prices and low price gauze?"

Demand is slow to see warmth.

The 112nd Autumn Fair closed in November 4th. According to the organizers' statistics, as of November 3rd, 188 thousand overseas purchasers had been reduced by 10.3% compared with the 111st spring Canton Fair, with a total turnover of 32 billion 680 million US dollars, which was 9.3% lower than that of the 111st spring Canton Fair.

Among them,

The total turnover of the exhibition hall as of November 2nd was 1 billion 440 million US dollars, which was 11.1% lower than that of the 111st spring Canton Fair. The turnover in Europe, the United States and Japan decreased by 7.7%, 12.2% and 49.6% respectively.

The light of the Canton Fair shows that the export trade figures are not improving.

11, entering the trade docking period in December, the impact of imported cotton on domestic cotton is inevitable.

Tracking the warehouse receipt report has not yet shown the registered warehouse receipts flowing into new cotton. The main reason for the lack of warehouse receipts to become the 05 contract is also the reason why the bears dare not overexert themselves.

If there is a short-term positive impact on India's opening up and storage, there will be a big rally in the bull market. When hoarding cotton enterprises should actively enter the market, they will be guaranteed.

Operation, during storage, Zheng cotton can take into account the band participation, the 1301 contract interval 19300-19800, low suction Gao Pao; 1305 high short selling, technical 18900 near a certain support, consider.

The possibility of implementation is large without blindly picking the bottom.