Several Major Institutions Today -- Cotton Futures

  [Hongyuan futures]USDA report has a discount on Zheng cotton.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20735 yuan / ton; 229 level 19859 yuan / ton; 328 level 19030 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18373 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10530 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 13960 yuan / ton; C32S price 25715 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: the spot cotton price trend continues to show a steady upward trend, cotton processing enterprises for cost considerations, coupled with the support of the national temporary purchasing and storage policy, strong price will be strong, and textile enterprises are bearing high cotton prices and sales difficulties double extrusion, the two sides will fall into the Stalemate Stage of purchase and sale.

3. import cotton: in the case of the next year's issuance quota is expected to be greatly reduced, the full tariff clearance has become the focus of the market. According to the survey, raw material inventories of large and medium-sized textile enterprises are significantly reduced compared with that of a month ago, and there is a possibility of centralized purchasing before and after the end of the year.

4.USDA report: according to the latest global cotton supply and demand forecast report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), this year's initial global inventory of 15 million 60 thousand tons of cotton was 100 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast; output was 25 million 450 thousand tons, increased by 20 thousand tons; consumption was 23 million 180 thousand tons, increased by 30 thousand tons; end of stock 17 million 340 thousand tons, 140 thousand tons reduced. China: 6 million 860 thousand tons of output and 7 million 730 thousand tons of consumption this year, all of which are unchanged from the previous forecast, and 8 million 190 thousand tons at the end of the year, with an increase of 110 thousand tons. The United States: 3 million 760 thousand tons of cotton output this year, 40 thousand tons reduction, 740 thousand tons of consumption unchanged, 1 million 180 thousand tons at the end of the period, 90 thousand tons reduction. India: the annual production stocks were 555, 479 and 1 million 900 thousand tons respectively, unchanged from the previous forecast.

5.ICE cotton: in December 11th, the USDA supply and demand report surprised the market. The downward adjustment of the US and global stock prices eased the pressure of resource supply. Meanwhile, the export volume of US cotton also increased by 44 thousand tons due to the strong demand of China and other countries. Stimulated by the USDA report, the ICE stage cotton plate broke away from the oscillation range, and cotton prices rose to 74.99 cents straight, and the final increase was over 2%.

Summary:

This month's USDA report cut global initial and final inventories and raised global consumption. This is the first report that has been reported for the first time in more than a month. The cotton face is strong. But the Chinese market has a special situation in China's market. China's high inventory and policy make the report discount on the multi role of Zheng cotton. In May, there is a great possibility that the contract should be maintained in the interval.

[MEIKO futures] import pressure over the off-season superimposed Zheng cotton back to see before low support

Overnight, on the 11 day, the USDA supply and demand report surprised the market. The end of the US and global inventory reduction eased the pressure of resource supply, while the US cotton exports also increased by 44 thousand tons due to strong demand from China and other countries. Stimulated by the USDA report, the ICE stage cotton plate broke away from the oscillation range, and cotton prices rose to 74.99 cents straight, and the final increase was over 2%. The release of bull mood will push cotton prices up, but spot demand will be affected, so the market will face a high risk of falling.

Industry news, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) announced the latest forecast of global cotton production and storage in 2012/13: the world's output increased by 15 thousand tons, and consumption increased by 33 thousand tons. Part of the decrease in inventory at the beginning of this year was partly due to a reduction in the initial inventory of 2005/06 in Turkey, and a decrease of 137 thousand tons in the end of the world.

On the international market, 11 days, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell slightly by 0.25-0.40 cents, but the price of long staple cotton generally increased by more than 2 cents. With the expected reduction of the quota next year, the full tariff clearance has become the focus of the market. According to the survey, raw material inventories of large and medium-sized textile enterprises are significantly reduced compared with that of a month ago. There is a possibility of centralized purchasing before and after the end of the year.

Domestic market, 11, the domestic cotton spot market prices continue to strengthen, but from the domestic situation, slowing economic growth, domestic demand is not strong, coupled with rising labor costs, labor demand continues to decline, textile clothing Industry continues to show a downward trend, while the outer cotton and outer yarn to suppress domestic cotton demand, cotton terminal demand is still not optimistic.

In December 11th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 52560 tons. As of that date, 2012 tons of cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 3924820 tons in December 11th, including 1283850 tons in the mainland, 2015320 tons in Xinjiang and 625650 tons in key enterprises.

Spot quotation, December 11th, the US C/A cotton 89.50 (cents / pound), the discount port price is 15023 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 94.60, the discount port price is 15677 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton 92.10, the discount port price is 15352 yuan / ton, the West African cotton 84.85, the discount port price is 14458 yuan / ton, the India cotton 84.60, the discount port price is 14428 yuan / ton. CNCotton A 19879 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan; CNCotton B 19052 yuan, up 17 yuan.

Market analysis, recent commodities as a whole market There is a warm-up trend, making some regional quotations have been raised, but due to the increasingly intense rumors of dumping and storage, the desire to purchase textile enterprises has obviously declined, and the market turnover is still light. Due to factors such as price and quality, the focus of the current market turnover is still mainly outside cotton, while the US phase cotton continues to rise under the promotion of export profits. 05, the middle and the negative will rise before the day, and the low 19850 platform support needs to be tested.

Operation, the 19850 quotes long and short watershed. {page_break}

[Yi De futures] more single temporary holding Zheng cotton is expected to rebound again

On Tuesday, CF1305 opened up and left. CF1305 closed more than 11.4 hands, and its position increased sharply. CF1305 closed at 19075 yuan / ton, down 165 yuan / ton, reduced 11702 hand; in December 11th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.06 cents / pound, fell 0.15 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13664 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14584 yuan / ton.

According to New York's December 11th news, ICE cotton climbed to a seven week high on Tuesday, as the US Department of agriculture lowered its US and global cotton inventories in the December crop supply and demand report and increased demand for us cotton exports. The main price of the ICE was 2% to 74.90 cents in March.

In December 11th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11220 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with the previous trading day, an order reduction of 960 tons and a total purchase of 33880 tons. On the 11 day, the contract was opened up, and within a wide range of days, it finally rose. Basically, it is understood that the market is mostly empty on the market outlook. On the one hand, sales and consumption have not started yet. The economic downturn in Europe and the United States, the domestic economy still in the stabilization stage, the tension between China and Japan, and the competition from Southeast Asia, etc., make it necessary for consumers to get obvious improvement. At the same time, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is still huge, leading to the sale of national cotton is in a weak position, and once the end of the purchase and storage of cotton reserves is made, the price trend is worrisome. But the market is relatively tight in the near future, which has a certain effect on price.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton went up and down, all the way down, and the market closed at a low level. The USDA supply and demand report was released at night, and the overall cotton price rose by 2%. Although yesterday's Zheng cotton decline swallowed up the day before yesterday, it rebounded again today. Yesterday, less than 19100 of the interventions yesterday could continue to hold. The base was less than -100, and the bottom was strong. Today's operation suggests that the target price is 19300, and the reference price range of CF1305 is 19000-19300.

　 [Wanda futures]USDA monthly report good cotton breakthrough 74 cents pressure level

On Tuesday, USDA released the monthly supply and demand report in December, in which global cotton production increased by 20 thousand tons to 25 million 450 thousand tons, consumption was reduced by 30 thousand tons to 23 million 180 thousand tons, ending stocks were reduced by 140 thousand tons to 17 million 340 thousand tons. The largest consumer country, the cotton producing country and the importing country made 6 million 860 thousand tons of Chinese output unchanged. The consumption of 7 million 730 thousand tons was unchanged from the previous month, and the end of the stock increased by 110 thousand tons to 8 million 190 thousand tons. The overall data showed no significant change compared with the monthly report in November, but it was better than the market expectation. This is a support for the ICE cotton. The March contract broke through 74 cents / pound pressure point, the highest to 74.99 cents / pound, and ended up 1.5 cents to 74.9 cents / pound, continuing the rebound trend. It is expected that with the support of good export data and consumer buying, the next ICE cotton is expected to challenge the 78 cents / pound pressure level.

Tuesday ICE cotton breakthrough 74 cents / pound pressure level Zhongyang reported, the main force in March contract stable short term average line, the medium and short term average line system continues to rise in a row, KD and MACD index in strong areas continue to rise in a row, MACD index red column continues to grow, rebound trend is not changed, such as March contract can stand for 74 days on a three day stand 74 cents / pound, up target will be 78 cents / pound line.

Cotton information network data show that as of the end of November, domestic textile enterprises inventory still reached 798 thousand tons, domestic trade inventories reached 1 million 60 thousand tons, of which 300 thousand tons of mainland stock, 760 thousand tons of inventory in Xinjiang, even if Xinjiang 760 thousand tons of commercial stocks into the store, as of the end of November, domestic business inventories still reach 1 million 60 thousand tons. At the same time, in December, India and the United States cotton will arrive in large numbers. China's quota will be issued soon. In January, China will usher in the Spring Festival holiday. The supply will increase and consumption will shrink. The sales of imported cotton have slowed down recently. In this case, although domestic storage and storage is close to 4 million tons, Zheng cotton It is expected to rebound with the US cotton, but it is difficult to change the weak pattern of the market, and keep the long term short thinking. The 19300 yuan / ton line can continue to increase the 1305 contract empty list.