Textile And Chemical Fiber Plunge Into The Trough Next Year Or Welcome Dawn

In 2012, due to the massive release of new capacity and the slow growth of downstream demand, the chemical fiber industry entered a profit trough, and the total loss of the listed companies in the chemical fiber sector continued in the second, third quarter.

< p > analysts believe that the industry has shown signs of improvement in the fourth quarter, and the overall performance is expected to decrease, but the overall situation is still not optimistic.

In 2013, the intensity of new capacity will be reduced, coupled with the gradual improvement of demand, the most difficult period of the industry will soon be over, and usher in a slow recovery stage.

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< p > < strong > fourth quarter or annulus deficit reduction < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to Wind statistics, the profitability of the chemical fiber sector has deteriorated rapidly in the two quarter of this year, with a net profit of 497 million yuan in the first quarter, a loss of 977 million yuan in the second quarter and a loss of 88 million 568 thousand and 300 yuan in the third quarter.

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< p > the deterioration of the fundamentals of the chemical fiber industry and the massive release of capacity are related to the extreme mismatch of demand.

Dongguan securities analyst said that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the chemical fiber industry started all the way from early 2010, reaching its peak in early 2011, then gradually decreasing, and it has dropped from the highest 134% to below 20% by October 2012.

According to the investment cycle rule of 1.5-2 in the chemical fiber project, the launch of the new capacity reached its peak in the second half of 2012.

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< p > while the capacity is released at large, the growth of demand is slow.

In 2012 1-10, domestic yarn production increased by 13.9% year-on-year, and fabric production grew by 9.9% year-on-year, while yarn production increased slightly compared with 2011.

The output of downstream industries is difficult to digest the massive supply of chemical fiber raw materials.

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< p > the price of chemical fiber products has dropped sharply this year. The factory price of polyester POY of Zhejiang Hengyi Group Co., Ltd. was about 13500 yuan / ton in January, but it dropped to 11650 yuan / ton in December, and fell to 10552 yuan / ton in one year.

The price trend of other chemical fiber products is basically the same.

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< p > from the industry fundamentals of the four quarter, the prices of some chemical fiber products began to rebound and profitability levels improved.

Take spandex as an example, data show that in the case of common 40D, in October 31st, the quotations of many enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 47000 yuan / ton, while the quotations in October 15th were only 45000 yuan / ton.

The main reason for the collective price increase is huafeng spandex fire accident, short term maintenance.

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< p > viscose staple, cotton prices continued to rise moderately in the three quarter with the advent of the peak season for downstream production and the purchase and storage of national cotton.

In October, the price of viscose staple fiber picked up.

It is understood that the viscose staple fiber business of Xinxiang chemical fiber is not far from the breakeven point.

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< p > < strong > 2013, slow recovery of material < /strong > < /p >

"P" outlook in 2013, the chemical fiber industry still has a part of the new production capacity release, but the peak period of production has passed, and downstream demand with the macroeconomic warming is improving, so the industry is expected to appear slow recovery.

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< p > taking viscose staple as an example, with the significant substitution of cotton at home and abroad, the industry is gradually bottoming out.

Analysts believe that by 2013, excess capacity will be basically digested, the whole industry will have a weak balance, the operating rate is around 85%, and the supply and demand of the industry will be improved.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that China's viscose staple fiber has a competitive edge in the international market.

The low cotton prices in the international market in 2012 were caused by a number of factors, such as the global cotton production, the depreciation of India's local currency and the decline in China's demand.

The factors of China's demand decline will continue in 2013, but India's tolerance for cheap cotton is decreasing. In the second half of 2012, policies were continuously introduced to reduce export and maintain cotton prices.

Against this background, the high growth of viscose staple fiber exports in 2013 will be maintained.

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< p > but worries still exist.

Dongguan securities analyst said, the chemical fiber industry in 2013 stable probability is bigger, but upstream PX new project blocked, means that raw material suppliers bargaining power rise, if it is difficult to cost all conduction downstream, some chemical fiber varieties profit margins may continue to be squeezed.

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