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Cotton 80% Enters Central Reserve Cotton Development And Reform Commission Ready To Throw Away Storage Matters

2013/1/9 16:13:00 24

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Cotton Market Cotton Throwing And Storing Policy Development And Reform Commission

this year, the possibility of cotton price shocks is relatively large, relatively high or appearing in September February.

China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > production last year was about 6 million 850 thousand tons, of which nearly 80% entered the central storage cotton, and the development and Reform Commission threw more and more expectations.

Reporters yesterday learned that textile enterprises have already received notice of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > cotton throwing storage < /a >, and have begun to prepare for bidding.

Insiders told reporters that the downstream demand has not been improved. Cotton < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > price < /a > maintaining a weak and weak pattern. The NDRC threw the store as "too much storage and had to throw it".

there are nearly 80% cotton entering the national treasury .

yesterday, the reporter learned from the sources that under the policy of 20400 yuan / ton relative high price, the majority of cotton in 2012 has entered the national reserve.

The latest statistics show that as of January 7th, the state has accumulated a total of 5 million 300 thousand tons of storage and storage, and it is expected that the storage capacity will eventually exceed 5 million 500 thousand tons. According to the annual output of 6 million 850 thousand tons, it will reach the 80%. of China's total cotton output. It is understood that China began to implement the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy from 2011. In 2011-2012, it collected about 3100000 tons of cotton at the price of 19 thousand and 800 yuan per ton, accounting for 43.5%. of the actual cotton output of 7 million 200 thousand tons in that year, while the temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2012-2013 years started in September 10, 2012, and the storage price reached 20400 yuan / ton, which was 600 yuan higher than that in 2011.

because the textile demand is not strong, the market cotton price continues to be lower than the purchase and storage price.

"Circulation enterprises are very lazy now, do not need to maintain customers, as long as they wait for the cotton to hand over, and the price is higher than the market price. In addition, in 2012, the purchase and storage is open storage and storage, so long as the delivery is closed, so the amount of storage and storage last year is particularly large," said Shanghai mid-term analyst.

according to the introduction of thunder, in fact, since 2004, there have been sporadic collection and storage activities in China. At that time, there were only a few tens of thousands of tons, but only 300 thousand tons in 2006.

In recent years, the reserves have been increasing, which has a key impact on cotton price movements.

huge inventory pressure must be dropped /p >

large quantities of cotton enter the Treasury, resulting in the storage capacity of the stored cotton, and it is imperative to throw and store.

According to the announcement issued by the NDRC, as at December 27th, the NDRC allocated 7 million 290 thousand tons of storage capacity in the whole country.

The Business Daily reporters examined the previous research data released by China industry research network, found that as of December 10, 2012, the state has accumulated 3 million 870 thousand tons of storage, 500 thousand yuan in September, and 7 million 790 thousand tons of state reserve stocks.

last December 28th, the NDRC announced that it would auction some state-owned cotton stocks, but did not disclose further details.

Yesterday, the Chinese commercial news reporter found the announcement on the preparations for the national cotton reserve sale paction from the China cotton information network. It said, "the relevant departments have decided to sell some of the national cotton reserves through the national cotton trading market reserve cotton auction sale system in the near future."

The news of the NDRC's throwing and storing cotton was further confirmed.

However, the specific reserve price and time of dumping are not clear.

for the dumping, the NDRC said earlier that "at present, there are not many cotton circulated in the market, especially high and medium grade cotton. For this reason, the NDRC and relevant departments have decided to put cotton reserves into the market in the near future to meet the needs of textile enterprises."

, however, insiders say that the development and Reform Commission may simply be in a bid to ease the storage capacity.

On the one hand, cotton prices are weak in recent shocks, futures prices are hovering near 19400 yuan / ton, and spot market prices are basically close to futures prices. On the other hand, market demand has not improved significantly, and textile enterprises' demand for cotton has not increased.

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or with a sliding quota tax reserve, it is understood that in 2012, the NDRC had thrown a small amount of reserves, but the market was cold, resulting in the dumping and storage did not ease the pressure on the storage capacity of the country.

In 2013, people in the industry predicted that dumping would probably be accompanied by quasi tax quotas.

September 3, 2012 -9 29, the China cotton reserve management company has put some cotton reserves in the national cotton trading market.

Due to the weaker demand for cotton in textile enterprises, the cautious attitude of enterprises, the more stringent payment conditions for auction of cotton reserves, and the lack of financial strength of some enterprises with purchasing demand, the turnover rate of the dumping and storage is not as good as expected, and the paction price is also mild.

and it is reported that the big frame of throwing and storing has been basically formed, that is to follow the principle of "3: 1" to tie up the quota of imported cotton and throw it away.

The price of throwing and storing is 19000 yuan / ton, and the selling price is 1 million 500 thousand tons.

"If this plan is finally implemented, it will be thrown aside."

One industry insider said.

foreign media analysis shows that China's auction of state-owned cotton stocks and the issuance of new import quotas can solve the two major problems faced by the government. That is, after two years of strategic storage and purchase, the government can sell some of the existing cotton stocks, and at the same time make the domestic textile enterprises get a much-needed breathing space.

The tight supply of cotton in China and the high price of cotton make these enterprises in a difficult position.

cotton prices will remain shock

the relevant analysts believe that the government's intentions are very clear, that is, by promoting the import of foreign cotton by tying quotas, so as to raise the international cotton price, and then reduce domestic cotton prices by throwing cotton in the form of storage.

However, whether this form of throwing and storing can play a role, depends on the final effect.

However, the narrowing of cotton prices between inside and outside is a major trend.

At present, domestic and foreign cotton prices still maintain about 4000 yuan / ton to 5000 yuan / ton price difference.

"if the national cotton store sells 3 million tons, with 1 million tons of quota and 4 million tons of cotton supply, according to the current textile enterprise's cotton consumption, it should be enough for the enterprises to use cotton for 6-8 months.

Overall, cotton supply was loose in 2013.

See thunder.

according to the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand forecast report, in 2013, the end of the world's cotton inventory was 15 million 60 thousand tons, consuming 23 million 180 thousand tons, the inventory consumption ratio was 65%, the end of China's cotton inventory was 8 million 190 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 106%, the global cotton supply exceeding demand pattern was difficult to change in the past two years.

In terms of dealing with high priced cotton, the Chinese textile mills mainly rely on the use of mining methods and wait for imported cotton quotas and cotton reserves to be put in. Textile mills and cotton traders have low acceptance of high priced futures cotton and low willingness to accept warehouse receipts.

Despite the possibility of rising pressure from warehouse receipts, there is a great possibility of a return.

futures analysts expect that the price of cotton will be more volatile in 2013. It is estimated that the main shock interval of Zheng cotton will be between 18000 yuan / ton ~20500 yuan / ton, and the trend of "rising - falling - rising" in the whole year. The relative high point may appear in February and September of 2013.