Analysis Of Cotton Futures In January 16, 2013

< p > < strong > [one German a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > futures < /a >" long part "," Zheng cotton short line shock "< /strong > /p >

< p > CF1305 fell on Tuesday, and CF1305 closed 98 thousand hands, holding a small increase.

CF1305 closed at 19395 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan / ton, reduced 4534 hand; in January 15th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 86.01 cents / pound, up 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13805 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14896 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > according to the news of New York in January 15th, the price of cotton futures rose on Tuesday, as the index buying at the end of the session lifted the price and went through the latest technical resistance, and the worries about the Chinese government's inventory release were cooling down.

The ICE settlement price rose 0.69 cents, or 0.91%, to 76.21 pounds in March.

< /p >

< p > in January 15th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10300 tons, a decrease of 520 tons compared with the previous trading day.

The order quantity is reduced by 240 tons, and the total order is 23350 tons.

On the 15 day, the opening of the contract is different, the wide range shock in the day, the end of the market is not one.

According to China Customs statistics, in December 2012, China imported 532 thousand tons of cotton.

With the dumping of reserves and some enterprises getting 1% tariff quotas one after another, market supply will tend to be loose, or will show a pattern of near strong, far and weak.

< /p >

"P" > on Tuesday, Zheng cotton rushed to the high level. In the afternoon, most of the companies lost their profits in the first place. Zheng cotton has been rebounding for several days from the bottom. According to the analysis of the position structure, short-term Zheng cotton has the need to adjust. It will compete repeatedly around 19400. There is no new news on the policy side. After the adjustment, Zheng cotton will continue to rebound steadily.

Today's operation suggests that holding more than one or 5 of the holdings will buy 9 combinations, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19200-19400.

< /p >

< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures] reserve cotton turnover discount standard level paction price exceeds spot < /strong > /p >

< p > key points < /p >

< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20977 yuan / ton; 229 class 20102 yuan / ton; 328 level 19278 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18670 yuan / ton.

Domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 11490 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14160 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25825 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > 2. imported cotton: in January 15th, most of the imported cotton varieties in China's main port fell slightly, but the US high-grade cotton rose 0.25 cents.

Judging from the market situation, low price cotton that can be cleared by 40% customs duties is still being sought after by textile mills. Customs data show that in December, 25% of the 532 thousand tons of imported cotton imported from China were India cotton.

< /p >

< p > 3. cotton reserves: in January 15th, the amount of cotton put in was 39909.01 tons, and the actual turnover was 33269.04 tons, and the turnover rate was 83.36%. The average daily turnover reserve cotton was 4.37, which was 0.04 lower than the average level of the previous day. The average length was 28.33, which was 0.17 lower than the previous day's average length; the weighted paction price was 18679 yuan / ton, and the 328 grade turnover price was 19382 yuan / ton (public weight), which was higher than the CC Index 19382 price on that day.

< /p >

< p > 4. cotton storage and storage: as of January 11th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 5582350 tons in January 11th, including 4192180 tons of pactions (1729860 tons in the mainland and 2462320 tons in the mainland).

< /p >

< p > 5.ICE cotton: in January 15th, although the soft commodities were generally low, ICE cotton did not take the negative factors into consideration, but the trend of the contract rose. In March, the contract settlement price exceeded 76 cents, but the turnover was still low.

< /p >

< p > < strong > summary: < /strong > < /p >

< p > January 15th < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > reserve cotton < /a > put in quantity of 39909.01 tons, actually clinch a deal 33269.04 tons, discount 328 level paction price is 19382 yuan / ton (public weight), this price has already been 114 yuan / ton higher than CC Index 328 price that day.

It confirms the author's view that "neutral is strong" for throwing storage.

On the whole, I believe that this round of dumping and storage has little effect on the spot price to Zheng cotton. Zheng cotton's May contract will remain stable and strong in the near future, but the medium term has not yet got rid of the concussion.

Yesterday, CF1305 reached the position of 19500 yuan / ton above mentioned by the author repeatedly. After reaching the pressure, it would be more likely to continue to shake.

< /p >