Analysis Of Cotton Futures In January 15, 2013

< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures] reserve cotton discount 328 level paction price 19046 yuan / ton < /strong > < /p >

< p > key points < /p >

< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20977 yuan / ton; 229 class 20102 yuan / ton; 328 level 19278 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18670 yuan / ton.

Domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 11490 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14160 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25825 yuan / ton.

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< p > 2. cotton imports: in January 14th, the price of China's main cotton imports increased steadily, while US cotton, Australia cotton, India cotton and Central Asia cotton rose by 0.20-0.50 cents.

According to the USDA monthly report released last Friday, international agencies continue to believe that China's purchase and storage will facilitate the import of cotton and the export of US cotton and lead to a decline in stocks in other parts of the world.

The next step in the price of cotton will depend on China's dumping and storage.

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< p > 3. cotton reserve put in: in January 14th, the number of cotton put in was 38062.27 tons, the actual turnover was 20186.85 tons, the paction ratio was 53.04%; the average daily turnover reserve cotton was 4.33; the average length was 28.5; the weighted paction price was 18405 yuan / ton, and the turnover price was 328 yuan, which was 19046 yuan / ton (public weight), which was lower than the 328 Index CC Index 328 yuan per ton.

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< p > 4. cotton storage and storage: as of January 11th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 5582350 tons in January 11th, including 4192180 tons of pactions (1729860 tons in the mainland and 2462320 tons in the mainland).

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< p > 5.ICE cotton: in January 14th, China launched the reserve cotton throwing store to trigger Market wait-and-see sentiment. The ICE cotton turnover sharply shrank, and the intraday oscillation intensified in March, and fell 10 points below.

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< p > summary: < /p >

< p > 14, the reserve cotton began to be put into the open auction mode, bidding for the standard price of 19000 yuan / ton of the reserve price. The market has been digesting the news for a long time, and the cashing of the information will not play a role in suppressing Zheng cotton.

In January 14th, the number of cotton reserves was 38062.27 tons, the actual turnover was 20186.85 tons, the turnover ratio was 53.04%, and the 328 class paction price was 19046 yuan / ton.

On the whole, I believe that this round of dumping and storage has little effect on the spot price to Zheng cotton. Zheng cotton's May contract will remain stable and strong in the near future, but the medium term has not yet got rid of the concussion.

Above 19500 yuan / ton and below 19000 yuan / ton are worth noting.

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< p > < strong > [Yi De futures] throws the storage response calm, Zheng cotton maintains bounce < /strong > < /p >

< p > CF1305 high volatility on Monday, CF1305 closed 65 thousand hands, and positions increased slightly.

CF1305 closed at 19380 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, increased 6630 positions; in January 14th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 86.01 cents / pound, up 0.05 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13805 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14896 yuan / ton.

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< p > according to the news of New York in January 14th, the price of cotton fell slightly on Monday, as China began to sell some of its huge reserves of cotton.

China's cotton reserves are large enough to supply the country's cotton textile industry for a year.

The March settlement price of the ICE dropped 0.1 cents, or 0.13%, to 75.52 pounds.

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< p > in January 14th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10820 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous trading day.

Orders increased by 480 tons, totaling 23590 tons.

On the 14 day, the contract was opened up, and within a wide range of days, it finally rose.

On the basic level, today's cotton auction is officially launched. The rules are also clear. The support price of cotton price seems to be formed. The focus of the market is gradually shifting to the store, followed by the enthusiasm and paction price of textile enterprises.

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< p > on Monday, Zheng cotton was at a high concussion. The first day of dumping and storage did not show much response. The paction was just over half. With the normalization of throwing and storing, the news will be gradually digested, investors can continue to hold more orders and arbitrage operations can continue to hold.

Today's operation suggests that holding more than one or 5 of the holdings will buy 9 combinations, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19200-19400.

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< p > < strong > [Wanda a href= < http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > futures < /a > China's dumping storage inhibits ICE period cotton price < /strong > /p >

< p > although overnight prices of US agricultural products such as soybeans, corn and wheat increased strongly, the US dollar strengthened, but these factors did not support ICE cotton. After two straight days of rebounding, the Chinese government was not optimistic about the dumping situation, and the situation was serious. ICE cotton did not receive any support from the subsequent buying to maintain a horizontal pattern. The main contract in March fell by 0.1 cents to 75.52 cents / pound.

But US cotton export data are good, inventory is low, and cotton planting area in 2013 may hit a new low of 25 years. These factors are expected to support ICE cotton.

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< p > ICE on Friday, cotton small Yin collection, the main contract in March closed on the short-term average, KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, the callback pressure is not reduced, the main contract in March will continue to challenge 74 cents / pounds support position, if the support is lost, the downward target will be 70 cents / pound line, otherwise it will continue to rebound trend continues to challenge 78 cents / pound pressure level.

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< p > 14, the Chinese government began to sell its reserves. Rumors about 3:1 quotas were not verified in the tossed stock announcement. Speculative capital increased more than just to promote Zheng cotton's rebound.

However, the rising cotton price was depressed by active selling. Meanwhile, the sale of Chen cotton after the two inspection was strongly attracted by net weight settlement. The phenomenon of throwing and storing films was serious on Monday, which indicates that the market supply is adequate.

On the other hand, after the quota is issued, the imported cotton will continue to arrive in Hong Kong. This will continue to impact domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price < /a >, and the market will not be in the situation of resource shortage, and spot cotton prices will be suppressed at a low level.

Therefore, although Zheng cotton continues to rebound, it is still difficult to attract speculation and consumer buying intervention, do not have a substantial increase in the foundation, pay attention to 19400 yuan / ton pressure level, such as effective breakthrough to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, otherwise rely on the pressure to continue to increase the May empty list.

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