Analysis Of Cotton Futures In January 14, 2013

< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures] national reserve cotton began to launch < /strong > < /p > today.

< p > key points < /p >

< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20977 yuan / ton; 229 class 20102 yuan / ton; 328 level 19278 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18670 yuan / ton.

Domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 11490 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14160 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25825 yuan / ton.

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< p > 2. cotton reserve put into operation: since January 14th, China Cotton Reserves Management Corporation has put in reserve cotton through the auction mode of the national cotton trading market reserve cotton auction system.

The reserve price of the reserve cotton sold for sale is 19000 yuan / ton (standard grade), and other grades of cotton are calculated according to the grade difference rate 3% and the length difference rate 1%.

The maximum bid quantity of the participating enterprises before March 31, 2013 should not exceed 2 months' cotton usage, and the reserve cotton purchased is only for self use, not for sale.

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< p > 3.USDA data: in January 11th, USDA lowered the output of US cotton by 54 thousand tons, the export volume increased by 87 thousand tons, and the final inventory reduced by 131 thousand tons, while China's cotton imports increased by 218 thousand tons in the latest demand and supply report.

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< p > 4. cotton storage and storage: as of January 11th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 5582350 tons in January 11th, including 4192180 tons of pactions (1729860 tons in the mainland and 2462320 tons in the mainland).

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< p > 5.ICE cotton: in January 11th, the monthly report of USDA was much more favorable, which was affected by its influence. The ICE phase cotton rose steadily after opening, although the intraday sale was sold for a while, but the intervention purchase increased the cotton price to more than 75 cents.

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< p > summary: < /p >

< p > today, the reserve cotton has been put into the open auction mode, bidding for the standard price of 19000 yuan / ton of the reserve price. The market has been digesting the news for a long time. The cashing of the information will not play a role in suppressing Zheng cotton, and it does not mention the quota problem, so at least it can be concluded that it is not bad news.

On the 11 day, the WASDE released by USDA showed that cotton inventories in the world and China increased compared with the previous month. The US stock consumption declined last month. This report is good for us cotton but not good for Chinese cotton.

Compared with China's strong policy, this report has less influence on Zheng cotton.

On the whole, I believe that the May contract of Zheng cotton will remain stable and strong in the near future, but the medium term has not yet got rid of the concussion.

Above 19500 yuan / ton and below 19000 yuan / ton are worth noting.

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< p > < strong > [one German futures] supply and demand report neutral Zheng cotton maintain rebound < /strong > < /p >

< p > CF1305 on Friday saw a narrow concussion, and CF1305 closed 52 thousand hands, with a slight increase in holdings.

CF1305 closed at 19320 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton, increased 2322 positions; in January 11th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.96 cents / pound, up 0.14 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13797 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14887 yuan / ton.

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< p > according to the news of New York in January 11th, the price of cotton rose on Friday, after the US Department of agriculture (USDA) cut the estimate of the US cotton output and the end of the US cotton inventory in 2012/13, resulting in a decline in output due to drought in Dezhou.

The ICE settlement price rose 0.42 cents, or 0.55%, to 75.62 pounds in March.

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< p > January 11th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11280 tons, an increase of 880 tons compared with the previous paction.

Orders increased by 100 tons, totaling 23110 tons.

On the 11 day, the opening of the contracts was different.

On the basic level, reserve cotton will start auctions next Monday, focusing on specific auction situations.

At the same time, we are also concerned about an adjustment of USDA's production and marketing situation this evening.

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"P" on Friday, Zhengzhou cotton narrow vibration, supply and demand report neutral, China's output is up to about 400 thousand tons, by Friday, the state reserves have been 5 million 580 thousand tons, 6 million tons are available, the circulation field is tight, because today's < a href= 'http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp > /a > do not enter the circulation area, the period price will be good support, investors can continue to buy or hold multiple orders, arbitrage operations can continue to hold.

Today's operation suggests that holding more than one or 5 of the holdings will buy 9 combinations, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19200-19400.

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< p > < strong > [Wanda futures]USDA monthly report is half empty, ICE phase cotton rebounding < /strong > /p >

< p > although China's monthly output increased by 436 thousand tons to 7 million 294 thousand tons, China's output increased by 420 thousand tons, and global consumption dropped by 92 thousand tons to 23 million 92 thousand tons. The global end stocks rose 452 thousand tons to 17 million 792 thousand tons, but the US output decreased by 53 thousand tons to 3 million 704 thousand tons. The end of the stock dropped from 131 thousand tons to 1 million 45 thousand tons. The ICE cotton futures rebounded and the main contract in March rose to 92 thousand cents per cent. In the case of China's large purchase and storage, China's purchase will support cotton prices in the future, and the rebound is expected to continue under the support of the fund purchase. The March contract will challenge the pressure of USDA1 cents / pound.

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< p > on Friday ICE cotton Xiao Yang reported, but the main contract in March closed below the short-term average, KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, MACD index green column growth, callback pressure is not reduced, the main contract in March will continue to challenge 74 cents / pounds support position, if the support is lost, the downward goal will be 70 cents / pound line, otherwise it will continue to rebound trend continues to challenge 78 cents / pound pressure level.

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China will sell 900 thousand tons of reserves at the price of 19000 yuan per ton on the day of P 14, and the recheck net weight settlement of Chen cotton will have a certain competitiveness, which will lead the textile enterprises to buy into the national reserve market.

On the other hand, imports of cotton have been arriving in large numbers. But before the Spring Festival, consumption and exports have not improved. Short term market oversupply will inhibit spot a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price < /a > and the popularity of Zheng cotton market. Although Zheng cotton warehouse receipt resources are scarce, it is still difficult to attract speculation and consumer buying intervention. Zheng cotton does not have a rising base. It is expected that zhengmian 1305 contract will continue to be 19000-19400 yuan / ton across the region, with 19400 yuan / ton pressure level to continue to increase its holdings.

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