What Will Happen To Cotton Throwing And Auction?

< p > the country will carry out the auction of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp "> cotton throwing storage" /a "in January 14th. The starting price of the 3 grade cotton is 19000 yuan / ton, and the cotton sold out of the warehouse is mainly stored in 2011 and the previous reserve cotton, at least 3 million tons. However, what is most concerned about this dumping and storage is that the national cotton store will be tied up with the "quasi tariff import quotas" in the ratio of 3 to 1. As the news came out, Zheng cotton prices rose slightly, and whether throwing and storing could stimulate the continuous rise in cotton futures prices attracted much attention. < /p >
< p > < strong > dumping reserve price analysis < /strong > < /p >
The national temporary cotton purchase and storage policy (< p > September 1, 2012) stipulates that the reserve price is 20400 yuan / ton, much higher than the current spot market and futures market prices. And this time the reserve price is 19000 yuan / ton, obviously the price is upside down 1400 yuan / ton (not yet related expenses), but actually the difference is not so big. In September 2012, the reserve cotton also threw over 500 thousand tons of cotton, the price of which was 18500 yuan / ton, and the 19800 yuan / ton of storage and purchase price was just 1400 yuan / ton upside down. At that time, 300 thousand tons of cotton in the central storage cotton were collected at the price of 12600 yuan / ton in 2009. In addition, there was a 160 thousand ton, 50 thousand ton, imported cotton with a total of 210 thousand tons. The cost of imports was only 14000 yuan / ton, so the 500 thousand ton throw was saved. < /p >
< p > the dumping price of 1400 yuan / ton should be paid attention to. The starting price of 19000 yuan / ton has a certain attraction, because the price is 200 to 300 yuan / ton lower than the domestic current price and futures price. This is also the reason why the price of Zhengtian cotton rose slightly after the announcement of the dumping and storage. < /p >
< p > < strong > the effect of selling method on the price of cotton futures < /strong > < /p >
< p > compared with the current cotton prices abroad, the purchase price of national cotton reserves is 4000 to 4500 yuan / ton, and does not have the price competitive advantage. Domestic large a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > enterprises basically adopted the strategy of waiting for imported cotton quotas and purchasing cotton with domestic products. If this dump is to be sold in proportion to the quotas of quotas and quotas, it will be the biggest concern for textile enterprises if there is a simple quota of cotton imports in the future. Once the "bundling" collocation mode is adopted in the future, even if the price difference between inside and outside cotton is very high, the sale of national cotton reserves will become possible. This will be a good way to lighten the financial burden of the state, but it will indirectly increase the burden of the textile enterprises. In order to get import quotas, cotton spinning enterprises have to bite the teeth to participate in the auction so as to raise the price of dumping and storage, which will lead to a rise in cotton prices in a short period of time. < /p >
The essence of P storage is to increase supply, and cotton price fluctuation is ultimately determined by the contradiction between supply and demand. In fact, since last year, the global cotton market has been in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Since June of last year, ICE cotton has been fluctuating at 70 - 75 cents / pound, continuing to oscillate, and the market direction is not clear. Global Financial Services Company Morgan Stanley believes that cotton prices will increasingly be driven by uncertainties in the supply of new cotton in 2013. According to the forecast of Holland Cooperation Bank, the global cotton prices remained stable in the first half of 2013, because the market supply exceeds demand. Therefore, the dumping will only play a short-term upward stimulus to the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "Zheng cotton < /a > price, and the intensity will not be great. Once the throw is completed, the cotton price will return to calm. < /p >