Market Research: Less Cotton Planting Area Has A Positive Effect On Cotton Price In The New Year.

< p style= "text-align: left" > strong > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > macroeconomics < /a > bottom up, < /strong > /p >

< p > data show that the gross domestic product in 2012 was 519322 billion yuan, which was 7.8% higher than the previous year.

In the quarterly view, the first quarter of 2012 increased by 8.1% over the first quarter, 7.6% in the two quarter, 7.4% in the three quarter, 7.9% in the fourth quarter, and the momentum of economic stabilization and recovery was basically established.

At the same time, the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that the GDP growth rate will be around 8.2% in 2013, and the overall warming of the macroeconomic situation will also pull down the development of the "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "textile" /a "industrial economy, when cotton consumption demand may also increase gradually, and the increase in consumer demand is also the most critical factor supporting the continuous rise of cotton prices.

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< p > strong > > a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx" > cotton > /a > flow into the Treasury < /strong > /p >

< p > up to now, the cotton temporary storage and storage paction has reached 5991030 tons in 2012, an increase of about 2 million 860 thousand tons compared with the 3 million 130 thousand tons of total storage and storage last year, of which 4430960 tons were listed (1916640 tons in the mainland, 2514320 tons in Xinjiang), and the backbone enterprises reached 1560070 tons.

Nearly 6 million tons of storage capacity is about 87% of the total cotton output in the country. After large scale storage and storage, the circulation of cotton in the market is decreasing, and the shortage of cotton supply and demand will continue to support the cotton spot price.

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< p > < strong > cotton enterprises average < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > inventory < /a > use days decrease < /strong > /p >

< p > up to January, the average daily use of cotton in the sample enterprises was 34.5 days (including imports to port cotton), a decrease of 3.3 days compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 2.8 days compared with the average level of nearly three years. The national cotton industry stock was about 747 thousand tons, down 9.8% from the same period last year, 20.3% less than the average level of nearly three years.

The decrease of cotton industrial inventory and the short term cotton industry's short term worries are the important reasons for the recent strong trend of Zheng cotton.

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< p > < strong > cotton planting area decreased < /strong > < /p >

Less than P, 2013, the global cotton planting area will be reduced.

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee, the global cotton planting area in 2013 will be reduced by 9% to 31 million 500 thousand hectares (473 million acres) compared with the previous year. The global cotton production in 2013/2014 decreased by 11% to 23 million 200 thousand tons over the same period last year, the lowest since 2009/2010. In 2013, China's cotton planting area was 4 million 600 thousand hectares (69 million mu), which was 8% lower than the same period last year, and the lowest level since 2003. The total output is about 6 million 100 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

The reduction of cotton planting area has a positive effect on cotton price in the new year.

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< p > < strong > American cotton rose nearly 28% < /strong > < /p >

< p > recently, the US debt ceiling talks have been postponed, and the non commercial bullion of the 2 Intercontinental Exchange has gained momentum. At present, there are about 79 thousand non commercial long positions, short positions are about 23 thousand, long positions are about 56 thousand, and the advantages of many are obvious.

Under the impetus of the main force, the recovery of the US cotton bottom has risen by 27.50% compared with the previous low point, and Zheng Mian's recent strength may also be a reflection of the rise of US cotton.

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< p > < strong > summary and operation suggestion < /strong > < /p >

< p > January 29th, Zheng cotton futures prices were trading on a daily basis. This is the result of recent resonances of many factors. This year's macro-economic situation has improved, the rise of US cotton and large-scale storage and purchase have led to a decline in Cotton Industrial inventories, causing worries about shortage of cotton. In 2013, the reduction of global cotton planting area and the reversal of the futures main force were the key factors to induce Zheng cotton's rise.

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< p > ZHENG Mian 1309 contract is slightly stronger than the 1305 contract, which is a reflection of the reasonable return of the price difference rule, and the trend will continue.

At present, Zheng cotton short line oscillation, or between 20300 - 20500 yuan / ton repair gap, after the oscillation is ready, the main force will attack 21000 yuan / ton more likely, investors should take light warehouse or hold more pactions, so it is not suitable for adverse market operation.

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