The Economic Recovery Will Be Stable And Slow. Where Will The Chemical Fiber Go

According to the monitoring and analysis of the data fed back by 350 price collection units, the overall weakness of China Shengze Silk Chemical Fiber Index fell this week. Among them, the chemical fiber index closed at 96.25 points, down 0.13 points compared with last weekend; The chemical fiber index fell 0.09 points to 95.44 points, and the chemical fiber fabric closed at 96.71 points, down 0.09 points from last weekend; The price index of cocoon and silk products fell 0.05 points to 102.03 points compared with last weekend.

　　 The price trends of chemical fiber fabrics, chemical fibers and cocoon silk products are as follows:

　　 1、 Judging from the market situation of chemical fiber raw materials

This week, the chemical fiber index as a whole fell mainly due to shocks. As of Friday, it closed at 95.44 points, down 0.09 points compared with last weekend. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, crude oil prices continued to decline this week under the influence of negative factors such as the rise of the US dollar exchange rate and the deepening of worries about the market's demand prospects caused by economic data. At present, the price of crude oil futures has fallen below that of years ago. As of this Thursday, the April crude oil futures in New York had dropped to 92.84 dollars per barrel. In terms of PX, the PX market has been showing a slight upward trend during the Spring Festival, but this week it was dominated by a weak decline. As of Thursday, the Asian PX market fell to 1675 dollars/ton FOB South Korea, down 24 dollars/ton in a week. In terms of PTA, although the PX market has declined, it is still at a high level on the whole, and its cost support function for PTA still exists. However, as the market was just opened during the Spring Festival, downstream polyester factories were slow to resume work, and the demand for raw materials failed to keep up, making the PTA market in a weak consolidation pattern. The price of PTA's internal negotiation fell slightly to around 8650 yuan this week, down about 200 yuan in a week; The negotiated price of Taiwan goods in China dropped to US $1180/ton, down about US $15 in a week. In terms of MEG, at the beginning of the week, due to the general atmosphere of the market, the MEG market did not change significantly, and the overall consolidation pattern was maintained. But near the weekend, the MEG market fell sharply due to the strong pressure of downstream negative factors, and the price of the internal market negotiation fell to around 8600 yuan, down 200 yuan/ton in a week; The price of the external market fell to about $1130/ton, down about $65/ton.

In terms of polyester and polyester, the market was just opened in the New Year, and polyester products rose sporadically driven by high costs. The manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces raised some products by about 100 yuan. However, due to the slow recovery of the operating rate of downstream weaving factories and the slight backlog of downstream manufacturers, the market of polyester products could not continue to rise. At present, it is basically stable operation. On the whole, although the raw material PTA/MEG market has declined slightly recently, it still plays a significant role in supporting the cost of polyester products. However, due to the slow resumption of downstream weaving and poor demand in the near future, it is expected that the polyester polyester market will basically maintain a stalemate situation in the short term and break through difficulties in the upward direction.

From the perspective of downstream operating rate and inventory, the operating rate of water jet looms and air jet looms in Shengze area is 30% at present, which is affected by recruitment, demand, inventory and other aspects. At present, the textile factory returns to work slowly. At present, the average weaving inventory in Shengze area is 37 days, of which 45 days is higher and 27~28 days is lower. With the improvement of market atmosphere, part of the inventory can be digested in the short term.

　　 2、 Judging from the fabric market

This week, chemical fiber fabrics were weak and fell. As of Friday, they closed at 96.71 points, down 0.09 points from last weekend. The overall turnover of flour and lining materials this week showed a steady upward trend, but the overall return to work was slow, so the turnover was not very large. In terms of hot products, a variety of seasonal matching fabrics have been selling well recently. In terms of price, affected by the high price of raw materials, the price of fabrics has been raised locally.

In terms of lining, regular polyester taff was delivered sporadically this week, and some manufacturers with high inventory of 190T and 210T made low price transfer measures, but the market response was not high. The demand for down jacket and gall cloth is general in the coming years, and there are some price increases of about 0.1 yuan/meter under cost pressure. Warp knitted fabrics performed fairly well this week, continuing the trend of hot sales years ago, with a wide range of varieties, which are used for outdoor sports and leisure in spring and summer Clothes & Accessories , sports equipment, luggage lining, home textiles, etc. The 75D market price is about 30 yuan/kg. Nylon spinning lining is scarce this week, and the inventory is still high. The market prosperity needs to be further improved. The demand for five satin linings will increase considerably after the year. Yarn dyed linings are selling well, and various stripes and textures are changing. Polyester cotton, polyester viscose yarn dyed fabrics, and cationic linings are favored by the market for their quality. At the same time, the added value of products is also high, and the price of finished products is mostly more than 10 yuan per meter. In addition, black polyester jacquard rayon jacquard is used as lining, which is the price choice for medium and high-grade clothing. After the festival, the demand performance is good, and the prospect is also quite promising.

In terms of fabrics, many varieties of fabrics are selling well this week. Among them, the performance of ground peach skin fabric is outstanding, the main specification is 75D × 150D, and the price of grey cloth is about 5-7 yuan/meter. The next best performance is the four side elastic fabric, and the orders of some manufacturers who receive orders well can be placed in May to June. The third is oxford fabric, which is used for tents, bags, car covers, etc., especially the 100D and 150D varieties are popular, while functional varieties such as flame retardant and UV resistant are more popular in the export market. In addition, the dice series performed fairly well this week, among which the elastic dice and matt dice sold slightly better, mainly used for women's clothing and pajamas in spring and summer. Chiffon, composite silk chiffon, silk crepe, etc. are still the varieties that should be sold in the market, and goods are frequently sold in the market. Taslon and Nisifang have placed sporadic orders, and suede is relatively light this week.

　　 3、 Judging from the cocoon and silk market

This week, the price index of cocoon and silk products fell 0.05 points to 102.03 points compared with last weekend. From the perspective of seasonal factors, the cocoon silk market is still in the off-season at this stage. At present, there is no speculation theme in the market, and it is difficult to move up and down. From the trend of these trading days, the bottom of raw silk price remains at the pre festival level, and the price of 380000 is still firm.

From a basic perspective, most of the silk mills and silk mills nationwide have officially started construction after the 15th day of the first month, a small number have already started construction, some enterprises are still implementing preliminary contracts, and most downstream enterprises have not started. In the new year, operators inquired about each other, and the cocoon silk market still remained strong. At present, the festival atmosphere of the market is still strong, and the market turnover is limited. In the short term, the spot market turnover depends on the Lantern Festival, and the price is mainly stable.

In terms of macro factors, 2013 spin The operation of the industrial economy will be stable in the front and high in the rear. In addition, influenced by many uncertain factors such as the European debt crisis, the international market did not have the conditions for a significant improvement in 2013, but it will not continue to deteriorate, and the export situation of the textile industry will remain relatively stable. At the same time, the latest data from relevant national departments shows that in January 2013, China exported textiles clothing US $24.691 billion, up 14.74% year on year, 3.91 percentage points higher than that of last month.

In general, the economic situation in 2013 will not be worse than that in 2012, and the economic recovery will be stable and slow.