BELLE 2012 Fourth Quarter Business Performance Analysis

< p > recently, the announcement of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "BELLE" /a (01880.HK) International (01880.HK) announced that a number of analysts' forecast for 2012 net profit was between RMB 4 billion 287 million yuan and 4 billion 854 million yuan, and expected net profit in 2012 would be close to the lower end of the analyst's report range.

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After P, UBS and JP Morgan issued a research report to reduce the target price of the company.

BELLE international plunged 16.78% on the 21 day, with a turnover of 130 million shares, 8 times the average volume in the past year.

On the 22 day, it fell 5.37%, from 18.58 Hong Kong dollars to 19 Hong Kong dollars, ending at 19 Hong Kong dollars, and suffered "Davies double kill".

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< p > BELLE's net profit growth stagnation in 2012 is the end of the high growth of the enterprise. After studying its operational data, the author has come to the opposite conclusion: first, the growth of BELLE's net profit in 2012 has stagnated for other reasons, that is, the termination of the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "target=" _blank "shoes" /a "Geox and the distribution rights of sports brand Kappa caused by the one-time provision; two, the loss of new business such as electricity providers and so on, and such losses will be reduced with the rationalization of the Internet strategy.

In contrast, the number of new stores, sales growth in the same store, gross margin and inventory data of BELLE in the fourth quarter and the second half of 2012 confirmed the improvement of its business and even the first recovery of the industry.

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< p > BELLE released the fourth quarter operating data in 2012, January 11th. It added 889 new retail stores in China, and the growth of footwear business in the same store was 3%, while sports a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > dress < /a > sales grew 10%.

Footwear business new store data strong, the fourth quarter of the 572 new sales terminals, accounting for 31.42% of the year-on-year increase, an increase of 18% over the same period, the total number of sales terminals reached 12090, the new speed was significantly accelerated.

Expanding the logic of acceleration may be based on slow growth in the same store and good sales trend in the future.

Sales growth in the same quarter in the fourth quarter, though weaker, has been slightly better than 2.8% in the third quarter.

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< p > the number of new stores and sales of same store sales in sports apparel business exceeded the market expectations.

The fourth quarter added 317 new sales terminals, accounting for 39.92% of the year-on-year increase, an increase of 17% over the previous year and a total of 5474 sales terminals.

In the fourth quarter, same store sales increased by 10%, which surpassed 3.6% in the third quarter. This is the best quarterly performance of BELLE international sportswear business in 4 years.

Under the pressure of sports clothing business inventory clearance, the same quarter store sales growth in the fourth quarter was not based on sacrifice price. According to relevant investment banks, the average sales price of their products increased during the season, which is a good sign.

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< p > in the second half of 2012, the gross profit margin of sportswear business decreased after the second half of 2011, resulting in a comprehensive gross margin close to 56.6% in the first half of the year.

On the stock market, BELLE showed signs of partial improvement in the first half of the year. In the second half of 2012, there may be a turning point in sales growth over inventory growth, which is a positive trend of inventory outgoing.

This trend is expected to strengthen in the first half of 2013 and enter a virtuous circle of inventory turnover.

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< p > the prophet of Spring River Plumbing duck.

The industry's recovery is the first to identify the industry leader brand.

In the apparel industry, women's footwear is one of the few industries that can challenge foreign brands.

According to the statistical research of the disposable price of consumers and the purchase price of clothing < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > shoes and hat < /a >, the two have a positive correlation, that is, the higher the income, the higher the price per pair of shoes.

Because the appearance of women's shoes is different from watches, bags and so on, the difference between imported shoes and high quality domestic shoes at high prices is a huge market growth space for domestic brands, such as BELLE international, Daphne (00210.HK), nine Xing Holdings (01836.HK) and XinDa (00738.HK), which have the same manufacturing process.

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The fast supply chain, which is enjoyed by the BELLE P self operated mode, is the fundamental reason for its relatively small inventory and clear inventory capacity, which is stronger than that of many domestic wholesale ordering apparel brands.

This mode has become the strategic direction of 002029.SZ clothing brand pformation.

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< p > BELLE has shown signs of improvement in operation. Apart from the above advantages, it is inseparable from the overall warming of the consumer environment.

According to the relevant statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of total retail sales in July 2012 has reversed the downward trend, and has been rising for 5 consecutive months since August.

The sales growth rate of 50 key retail enterprises also bottomed out in September, and the number of large retail enterprises increased significantly in the four quarter.

At the same time, the employment market showed steady growth with the economic recovery, and the consumer's future income expectations were better. The consumer confidence index began to reverse in July 2012, and continued to pick up.

In 2013, the trend of CPI's continued moderate recovery will also contribute to the growth of consumption.

Therefore, the signs of BELLE's recovery should not be a case. Domestic apparel enterprises have been in stock for more than three years, and the leading brands in the industry may return to positive growth in the second quarter of 2013.

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< p > with the estimated sales target of 32 billion yuan in 2012, BELLE estimated that the net profit would be about 4 billion 300 million yuan, and the free cash flow would exceed 2 billion 800 million yuan.

Since 2013 was the year of recovery and strong cash endorsement of BELLE, the free cash flow in 2013 could reach 4 billion yuan.

The value of BELLE enterprises is estimated to be 150 billion yuan based on the DCF cash flow discount method.

According to Buffett's "fight half off to have a margin of safety", BELLE's 75 billion yuan < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > market value < /a > corresponds to the stock price of HK $11.

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