Domestic Cotton Prices Are Constrained By High Inventories, And There Is No Big Rebound.

According to China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_h.asp > > cotton < /a > Association survey, 2013 cotton area is expected to drop 6.8% to 68 million 180 thousand acres, which is the first time in ten years below 70 million acres.

The most obvious decline in the the Yellow River River Basin, especially in Henan, has been pformed from a major cotton producing province to a small cotton producing province.

Earlier, some experts estimated that the 2013/14 cotton planting area in the United States is expected to be 9 million 800 thousand acres, 19% less than that in 2012/13.

< p > it is understood that the decline in domestic planting area is mainly concentrated in the mainland, especially in the traditional cotton producing areas such as Henan, Shandong and Hebei.

Experts say the main reason is that cotton cultivation is time-consuming and rural labor is scarce. In the past, the cotton planting mode of small-scale peasant economy was facing challenges, and it was also difficult to scale production. Farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton was greatly reduced, so planting area has been on a downward trend in recent years.

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< p > East Asia Futures analyst Xu Zhou believes that the cotton planting area in 2013 is expected to decline. The main reason is that the relative benefit of cotton planting is decreasing.

Although the state has issued a policy of collecting and storing for two consecutive years to ensure farmers' cotton planting income, but because the lowest grain price is rising and the overall price of cotton is decreasing, the planting intention of the Yangtze River and the the Yellow River River Basin has dropped particularly.

In addition, in 2011 and March 2012, the state issued a temporary purchase and storage policy, which has not been officially announced this year, and has also affected the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

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< p > < strong > global oversupply of cotton will be improved < /strong > < /p >

< p > at present, the global cotton is still in a loose pattern. The market expects that the global cotton output will decline in 2013 and consumption will also be warmer. Therefore, the pattern of global cotton supply and demand will be improved.

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< p > according to the February global cotton production and consumption forecast balance sheet released by Cotlook (Caunt Luke), the global cotton output of 24 million 299 thousand tons in 2013/14, 1 million 904 thousand tons less than the current year, and the global consumption of 23 million 154 thousand tons, increased by 487 thousand tons.

All this indicates that the serious surplus situation in the next year will be improved.

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"P >" Shanghai mid-term analyst sees thunder, "from overseas consumption point of view, in 2013 Europe and the United States continued to recover slowly, textile and garment export situation is still not optimistic, but it is better than the situation in 2012.

It is estimated that the total two items of textile and clothing exports will reach 273 billion 250 million US dollars, and the growth rate will rise to 8% over the same period last year. We should note that this figure is still at a relatively low level in the past 10 years.

In addition, from the perspective of domestic consumption, China's new year's macroeconomic regulation and control policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting urbanization, and textile consumption demand will increase or increase year-on-year.

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< p > specific to domestic and foreign cotton prices, experts generally believe that the improvement of supply and demand pattern, to a certain extent, is good for global cotton prices; however, domestic cotton prices are subject to high inventory and policy regulation, so it is difficult to rebound sharply.

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< p > Xu Zhou said that global cotton stocks are mainly concentrated in China, so the supply and demand of foreign cotton is not particularly loose.

From the trend, cotton prices both at home and abroad have gradually bottled out, especially in the past 4 months, the US cotton rose more than 30%.

Considering domestic cotton throwing and quota policy, domestic demand for imported cotton is still increasing, and US cotton still has a driving force.

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< p > < strong > cotton textile industry is coming soon. < /strong > < /p >

< p > recently, from the Agricultural Department of autonomous region, Xinjiang is known as the largest cotton producing area in China. The cotton planting area this year is 15 million 398 thousand mu, 1 million 62 thousand mu less than the previous year, and the decrease of cotton planting area, which means that the raw material of textile industry tends to tighten. For the textile industry, the raw materials of cotton textile processing enterprises can be sold well after processing, and after two years of industrial downturn, the spring of cotton textile industry is coming.

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< p > according to the General Administration of customs statistics, in February, China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "textile > /a" clothing exports amounted to US $16 billion 480 million, up 69.7% compared to the same period last year. In 1-2 months, our textile "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/DESIGN/designer/index.asp "clothing" /a "accumulated 41 billion 170 million US dollars in exports, an increase of 31.8% over the same period last year. For this reason, Xinjiang cotton textile industry said that the main factor affecting the cotton textile industry is the consumption market and export trade factors, and the reduction of textile and garment export trade is the main reason for the downturn in the cotton textile industry in recent years. At present, the world economy in Europe and the United States has been warming up, and consumption is showing an upward trend. Therefore, the export of domestic cotton textile manufacturing enterprises will gradually increase.

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< p > in early March, *ST new agriculture [1.68% Fund Research Report] before the pition, the most profitable controlling subsidiary of the new agricultural cotton pulp announced the formal resumption of production, the new agricultural cotton pulp has realized net profit of 44 million 180 thousand yuan in 2010, but the cotton textile industry in 2011 is approaching the winter, plus business factors, the loss of the new agricultural cotton pulp is as high as 380 million yuan, and it is closed down in October 2012.

According to the company's introduction, the commencement of production is the comprehensive cotton pulp market and raw material storage situation before deciding to start production.

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< p > except that the new cotton pulp has decided to start production this month, a new cotton processing enterprise in Xinjiang, a new cotton processing enterprise, has begun to recruit 38 tons of cotton yarn to Zhejiang. After this month, it began large-scale recruitment of truck drivers, and is expected to start production soon.

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< p > on the policy level, the cotton textile industry is the pillar industry and the traditional advantageous industry of the corps development. The Corps carries out phased subsidies for cotton spinning enterprises, and guides cotton and cotton company to supply cotton production to cotton spinning enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013, and relaxes the settlement period, and gives the 5/1000 discount subsidy to cotton and hemp company, so as to ease the pressure of liquidity in the cotton spinning enterprises.

In addition, it also gives cotton textile enterprises corresponding support in power supply and pportation.

A number of measures have been taken to promote the steady development of the cotton textile industry.

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