Shoe Machine Enterprise Focuses On 08 Steel Market Trend Analysis

The machinery industry, which mainly uses steel as the main raw material, is very concerned about the trend of the steel market. Only when we understand the market can we take effective measures in time to avoid risks.

Let's take a look at the first half of the steel market's formal analysis and the trend forecast in the second half of this year: in the first half of this year, China's steel market demand slowed down significantly, dragging down the growth momentum of output, and showing a downward trend of supply and demand.

At the same time, the depreciation of the US dollar, the increase of cost and the opportunity to hype, the three factors jointly drive the strong rise of market prices, and gradually decline from the actual supply and demand relationship.

It is expected that in the second half of the year, there will be many factors in the timber market. The result of the game will be high operation and wide concussion.

In the first half of 2008, China's steel market situation showed two characteristics: first, three major factors to drive up the price trend.

It is estimated that by the end of 5, the average price of steel in 30 major cities and five varieties of the country was 6207 yuan / ton, up 27.4% from the end of last year, up nearly 5 from the same period last year, and the absolute ton price increased by 2053 yuan.

Market prices continued to rise in June.

Among the important steel varieties, the price of 25MM steel bar was 5604 yuan at the end of 5, rising by 60.1% compared with the same period last year, the highest increase; the 6.5MM high line ton price was 5944 yuan, up 58.9%; the 20MM medium plate was 6530 yuan, up 54.3%; the 1MM cold plate was 7058 yuan, increased 40.3%; the 3MM hot coil was 5901 yuan, the increase was 38.4%.

From this year's price rise situation, we can see that the low value-added building steel varieties have a larger price increase; the higher value-added plate products prices are relatively low.

(2008) the average price of steel in the central city of China was 1-5 yuan in December. The average price of steel in the central city was: yuan / ton, 6.5, 25mm, 3mm, hot coil, 1mm, cold plate, 20mm, medium plate, steel bar, average steel bar, last year, December, 449444414822555950404871, January, 448144344909577851214945, February, 498049095400646458065512, March, 509349725517659260385642, April, 556854195712671863095945, May, and 509349725517659260385642. The reasons for the sharp rise in domestic steel prices in the first half of this year are as follows: first, iron ore, coke, power, logistics cost increase, production cost promotion; two, the US dollar has continued to depreciate sharply, stimulating the prices of related products in the international market; and the other is that some enterprises are taking the opportunity to hype and add fuel to the flames.

We must point out that although the cost of steel production has been greatly improved, such a high price increase has not been fully explained by cost factors.

As mentioned above, at the end of 5 this year, the average ton price of steel in major cities and main varieties increased by 2053 yuan over the same period last year.

If the average factory price of iron and steel enterprises is lower than the market price of 400 yuan / ton, the average factory price of the iron and steel enterprises at the end of 5 will be raised at least 1600 yuan / ton at the end of 5, while the iron ore cost increased by the same period in large iron and steel enterprises (domestic and foreign ore price, long-term contract price, and comprehensive calculation of the price and spot price of the iron ore produced by the iron and steel enterprises) will not exceed 300 yuan, even if the total cost of coke, scrap, power, logistics, environmental protection, wages and so on is taken into account, the additional tonne steel cost will not exceed 800 yuan.

It can be seen that the price increase of domestic iron and steel enterprises has exceeded the cost increase of the same period, and the profit of products has increased.

Of course, strong demand has also supported the high price movements. However, in the first half of this year, the actual supply and demand relationship was generally balanced, and there was no overall tension. Therefore, it could not be the main reason for the strong price increase.

China's export price of steel, RMB appreciation and export volume decreased by three factors.

It is estimated that the average export price of steel exports in May was 984 US dollars, up 6% from last month, 45.1% higher than the same period last year, and the average price of billet exports was 530 US dollars, up 5%, up 21.7% over the same period last year.

Judging from the absolute value, in May, China's export billets sold more than 99 US dollars / ton over the same period last year, and the export of steel products sold more than US $306 / ton.

Statistics show that the volume of steel exports decreased by 20.8% in the first half of May this year, but the export volume increased by 10.3%.

(2008) the export price of steel products in May, May, the unit price: the US dollar / ton, the average monthly price of 5, the average monthly price of 2008, and the ratio of the supply and demand of the billet 55621.7 billet (two).

Statistics show that since 2008, the momentum of sustained strong demand for steel has indeed declined.

Two major components of consumer demand: both export demand and domestic demand, there has been a slowdown in growth or absolute decline.

First, the direct export volume of steel (including billets and the same below) has declined.

According to customs statistics, the total volume of steel exports in the first 5 months of this year was 21 million 720 thousand tons, 20.8% lower than that of the same period last year, and the export volume of steel billets was 110 thousand tons, down 98.5%.

What we need to point out is that although the volume of exports in the first half of this year has declined, the volume of steel exports has rebounded for several months since March. Especially in May, the volume of steel exports reached 5 million 560 thousand tons, which has exceeded the warning line of 10% of domestic crude steel output. This indicates that the effect of inhibition measures adopted earlier has been weakened. It is necessary to adjust the export tariff of steel products again and enhance the intensity of restraint so as to consolidate the regulation results.

In 2008 1-5, the export of iron and steel products: 10000 tons, two 5 (%) 1 - May, the year May (%) 1-98.611-98.5 steel 556-9.82172-20.8, among which: sheet metal, 264-0.4 1062-10.4 bar, 133-27.7 467 -41.8 angle steel and section steel, 41-32.4 152-37.2 pipe, and the export growth rate of indirect export.

While the direct export of steel is down, its indirect export volume is also decreasing or its growth rate has dropped.

Customs statistics show that 1-4 months this year, the export volume of steel products such as metal processing machine tools, stainless steel kitchenware, cutlery, metal tools, sewing machines, microwave ovens, fans and so on has declined year by year. The export volume of household electrical appliances such as steel fasteners, motors, motorcycles, bicycles, washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators and so on is still increasing, but the export growth of most products is not more than 5%, while the export growth of bearings and containers is relatively high, but there has also been a sharp decline.

Three is the drop in output growth of domestic steel products.

The production of steel products, such as automobiles, machinery and equipment, household appliances and ships, is an important aspect of China's steel consumption.

This year's statistics also show that its growth momentum has weakened.

According to statistics, in the first 5 months of 2008, the added value of industrial above designated size increased by 16.3% over the same period last year, down nearly 2 percentage points from the same period last year.

It is estimated that the total output of 9 main steel products increased by 19.5% in the 1-4 months of this year, down 7.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

5 and June are still expected to fall.

Four, the growth rate of fixed assets investment is slowing down.

In the 1 quarter of this year, investment in fixed assets of the whole society increased by 24.6% over the same period, of which 32.3% of real estate investment increased and maintained a relatively high nominal growth rate. However, if the price increase of fixed assets of more than 8% of the same period was eliminated, the real growth rate also slowed down.

In the 1 quarter of 2008, the investment price rose in the first quarter of 2008. The price of fixed assets is 8.6, including the prices of equipment, tools and equipment, 0.2, other charges, prices, 5.8, construction and installation works, including the price of materials, fees, labor and fees, and the price of 13.5.

The growth rate of domestic production has slowed down significantly.

The fall in the growth of consumer demand has made domestic steel production under pressure, resulting in a marked slowdown in the growth of crude steel and steel products.

According to statistics, the cumulative output of crude steel in the 1-5 months was 216 million 110 thousand tons, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year. The output of steel was 246 million 40 thousand tons, an increase of 12.5%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points and 11.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

In the production structure of important steel products in the first half of the year, the deceleration of the building steel is more significant.

In the first 5 months of 2008, the total output of steel in China was 39 million 210 thousand tons, 1.2% lower than that in the same period last year, and the yield of wire rod was 33 million 130 thousand tons, or only 6.9%.

2008年1-5月全國主要鋼材產品產量 名 稱單位月計累計累計增長%月計增長%粗鋼萬噸4601.25 21611.28 9.4 10.5 鋼材萬噸5337.81 24603.53 12.5 13.6 鐵道用鋼材萬噸30.74 158.90 25.2 24.1 重軌萬噸22.09 84.44 24.7 31.0 輕軌萬噸4.20 52.50 35.5 5.0 大型型鋼萬噸88.60 437.69 4.7 5.1 中小型型鋼萬噸275.77 1224.75 17.5 10.9 棒材萬噸440.78 2127.34 21.3 17.8 鋼筋萬噸851.24 3920.96 -1.2 4.0 盤條（線材）萬噸738.51 3313.29 6.9 11.7 特厚板萬噸37.37 181.38 10.0 -1.2 厚鋼板萬噸190.85 872.60 27.4 30.5 中板萬噸305.37 1481.11 22.8 17.5 熱軋薄板萬噸57.49 275.48 2.5 -3.2 冷軋薄板萬噸152.18 678.63 13.8 14.3 中厚寬鋼帶萬噸719.77 3243.20 35.3 41.0

167.37 854.45 21.3 12.6 cold rolled thin steel strip, ten thousand tons of 159.10 804.14 11.7 3.2, the hot strip mill, narrow steel strip, ten thousand tons, 355.77 1648.39 4.1 4.1, cold rolled narrow steel strip, 10000 tons, galvanized sheet (strip), galvanized sheet (band), 10000 tons, tin, tin, tin, tin, sheet (belt), ten thousand tons, and the coating plate (band) 10000 tons.