Cotton Policy Market Or Continuation

< p > in a series of factors such as slowing down consumption, rising costs, squeezing profits, external demand and instability affecting exports and so on, the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com "cotton industry > /a" chain has entered a more "entangled" predicament. "Cotton knot" is not only difficult to solve in the short term, it may even become a "cotton robbery" in an industry.

Professionals say that it will take time to solve this dilemma. As a response, enterprises can be encouraged to enter the era of "big business" as soon as possible and reduce the links of industrial chains. At the same time, we should improve the combination of "visible hands" and "invisible hands" and make great contributions in stimulating the potential of domestic demand.

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< p > < strong > quotes or continuation of "policy market" < /strong > < /p >

< p > since the national operation intervened in the cotton market, the cotton market has been reduced to a policy market.

When the influence of weather factors is small, each trend of storage and storage is involved in the cotton market, and it has even significantly changed the price structure of the cotton market.

Observers believe that this year the cotton market will continue to deduce the "policy market" market.

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< p > under the background of weak global cotton demand and slow economic recovery, China's cotton control policy divides the cotton prices in the Chinese market into three levels.

From low to high, they are: the first level is imported cotton price, the second level is the cotton price for social circulation, and the third level is the purchase and storage price.

The spread of price spreads the cotton resources from the low price area to the high price area.

If trade is free and the market is effective, cross market arbitrage will flatten the price to the same level.

However, the current situation is that there is a strong import quota management policy for Chinese cotton between the first and second levels, and there is a strong policy of purchasing and storing between the second and third levels.

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< p > from the view of purchasing and storage policy, the plan for temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2013 approved by the State Council recently showed that 2013 cotton continued to open and store, and the price of temporary storage and storage remained unchanged, which was still 20400 yuan / ton.

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< p > observers believe that in the post purchase and storage era, the 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price will weaken the supporting factors of cotton city.

From the perspective of 2012/13, China's cotton market's supporting kinetic energy is nothing more than the policy of purchasing and storing.

In the context of poor market atmosphere, the 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price is very attractive.

According to statistics, as of the end of March this year, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 6 million 510 thousand tons, accounting for more than two times the total amount of storage and purchase in 2011.

According to the estimated 7 million 470 thousand tons of cotton output this year, according to the China cotton information network, the storage capacity has reached about 87% of the total output. If the output of cotton in China is calculated by the latest report of the US Department of agriculture in March, the current input reserves have reached 85% of the domestic cotton output this year.

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< p > after large scale storage and storage, the quantity of cotton that can be circulated in the market is reduced. Cotton spinning enterprises are obviously short of cotton, especially high-grade cotton, which will bring support to cotton spot and futures prices.

It is noteworthy that high-grade cotton flows into the national reserve and futures market because of the decrease in cotton inflow, and the cotton warehouse receipts become more limited, which has become an important reason for the futures market to do more.

Some people even think that this is the reason behind CF1301's "soft sell out" situation in the month before delivery.

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< p > in the months when the old storage period has passed and the new storage period has not yet come, import quota management and dumping will have a greater impact on the market.

In the face of the obvious lack of cotton terminal demand and the huge stock of China's state reserves, the dumping and import quota policy has become the core factor affecting cotton prices.

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At the beginning of the year, in order to solve the shortage of a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > cotton shortage caused by large-scale storage and purchase, the state began to implement the strategic policy of selling state cotton and cotton, which is the first time that China has carried out the policy of collecting and storing cotton and throwing away the national cotton for the first time in history.

However, at the early stage of the implementation of the policy, textile enterprises did not buy it, and the daily turnover rate showed a downward trend.

With the upgrading of the quality of the cotton sold, the volume of trading has gradually stabilized, but the number is still not large, basically maintained at around 20 thousand tons.

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< p > according to statistics, since September when the dumping began in September, 1 million 354 thousand tons of cotton have been sold out of the warehouse so far.

The first batch of dumping and storage policies ended at the end of March, and the second batch of selling will continue.

The NDRC said in January that by the end of July, the state would continue to throw 4 million 500 thousand tons of cotton at a price of 19000 yuan / ton.

Although there are more versions of the market rumors for details, as long as the policy of dumping and storage continues, the price of cotton is under more pressure with the increase of outbound storage and the weakening of the influence factors of collecting and storing the market.

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< p > for cotton's Quasi tax quotas, there have been < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > textile enterprise < /a >, which has received the notice of quotas.

In view of the fact that the cost of cotton imports is still 3000 yuan / ton lower than the domestic spot price, the issuance of quotas also poses a certain pressure on the price of Zheng cotton.

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< p > at the same time, import quotas restrict the pfer of imported cotton to China's ports.

The high and low cotton price difference as a very important price structure, to a large extent, affects the order quantity and inventory strategy of Chinese textile enterprises, and affects the demand of Chinese cotton.

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< p > in view of the purpose of stabilizing the cotton market, the state may increase the intensity of dumping and sliding quota tax after April.

Within the next few months, domestic cotton prices are expected to remain stable. If Zheng cotton does not have a soft market situation caused by warehouse receipts, the cotton market will fall into a policy dominated market.

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