Market Trend And Market Trend Of Cotton In April

Part one: market March trend review

　　 First, market review

March domestic cotton (20385110.00,0.54%) the performance is still weaker than the US market. Zheng cotton 1309 contract as a whole showed a slow upward trend of concussion. At the beginning of the month, it opened at 19900 yuan / ton, and then surged to 20550. The impact of India and China's selling of cotton stocks and the shock of the stock market dropped to 20 thousand at the beginning of the month. However, it was followed by a rebound. At the end of the month, China's Cotton Association's two session of the five Council's market policy was boosted. In 2013, the open purchase and storage policy will continue to stimulate the market to rise slightly, and the main contract CF1309 rose 430 points, or 2.16%.

 

　　 Two, internal and external Fundamentals

Xinjiang area Cotton market Walk steadily. And transported back to South Xinjiang cotton farmers to sowing in advance, because the temperature in Kashi region picked up faster, since the beginning of March, the temperature at noon is generally above 18 degrees Celsius, and some cotton areas in Kashi, Bachu and Akesu are alkaline and not easy to seep, so most of the cotton farmers after the Spring Festival actively pumped or used the irrigated land of the reservoirs. Now the farmers are forced to start sowing in advance. In addition, the cotton fields in the southern Xinjiang area were earlier frost (2012, middle and lower ten days) in 2012, and the yields of some middle and late maturing cotton fields were relatively low, and the yield was not affected. Therefore, most of the cotton farmers want to start broadcasting in advance this year, and the cotton farmers plan for the surrounding areas of Kashi and Bachu has been planted since March 27-28. Recently, cotton farmers in southern Akesu and Kashi have basically finished watering, and fertilizers, pesticides, plastic films and other materials have been purchased. Some cotton farmers reflected that most of the fertilizers were booked in advance before and after December 2012. After the Spring Festival, the growth of plastic film and pesticides was limited. In general, the cost of physicochemical per mu had little change compared with that in 2012. Recently, some workers in the local ginning factory, who are responsible for workshop processing, seed cotton handling and acquisition of seed cotton, have come to contact related businesses in the territory. Some of the ginning plants take into account the difficulties in recruiting workers after July, and the large number of acquisitions. Most of them are in advance with the processors and stevedores of the same generation. Due to the end of the end of March, plus the seed cotton resources are very few, so now Akesu, Bachu and other places ginning factory almost has stopped purchasing, processing, actively bidding index storage. Since the early March, although the spot sales of lint in Shihezi and Kuitun have been active, the spot market in the southern Xinjiang has not been very hot. Only a small number of civil cotton and medical cotton enterprises have purchased inquiries, and they have sold bulk cotton bags and cotton lint which do not meet the storage requirements. The gross price of factory grade 3 cotton is 20200-20500 yuan / ton. In addition, it is worth noting that in 2013, farmers in some cotton areas of Akesu and Kashi had higher enthusiasm for planting dates, apples and other fruits, and the impact on cotton area was increasing. The output per unit area of seed cotton will have a certain range of change. The cotton seed cotton storage and storage in ginning plant in 2013/14 need to scientifically plan the acquisition and processing progress of seed cotton.

 

 

The cotton market in Shandong is stable. At present, the cotton resources in Dezhou are gradually decreasing, and most cotton enterprises have stopped collecting. Only a few enterprises are still buying, but the purchasing amount is not large. At present, the purchase price of seed cotton is basically the same as before and after the Spring Festival. The mainstream purchase price of the four grade seed cotton is about 4.05 yuan / Jin, the lint percentage is 35%, and the moisture content is 10%. It is understood that the overall acquisition of cotton in Dezhou is approaching 95%, and the resources of cotton farmers are less and less. The end of the state's collection and storage is two months ahead of schedule. In addition, Dezhou cotton spring sowing in April 15th, due to local cotton for four consecutive years of disaster, cotton production decreased, revenue decreased, cotton farmers enthusiasm for planting cotton decreased, this year Dezhou cotton area is expected to be reduced by more than 15% over the previous year.

The cotton market in Hebei is stable. Cotton purchasing and processing enterprises in Hengshui and its surrounding areas have rushed to pay for storage, and the purchase price and purchase quantity of seed cotton have been decreasing gradually. Some cotton enterprises began to pay attention to the change of the market of Zhengzhou cotton and wanted to enter the futures market in good time. Local cotton enterprises have gradually reduced the purchase price and quantity of seed cotton, promptly processed lint, tightened up inspection and group approval, supplemented and replenish the number of cotton and cotton bags to store, so as to catch up with the completion of the national storage and storage work in the current year before the end of March. Local weak 3 grade seed cotton purchase price 4.15 yuan / Jin, lint 37%, water 9%, 4 seed cotton purchase price 3.95 ~ 3.97 yuan / Jin, lint 36%, flower 3.93 to 3.95 yuan / Jin, all last week dropped 0.03 to 0.03 yuan / Jin. {page_break}

The cotton market in Jiangsu is not performing well. Since mid March, the cotton association of Sheyang county has investigated the cotton planting intention of 100 farmers in 20 villages of 6 counties and townships by adopting the way of walking into the village and entering the field. The results showed that cotton growers' willingness to plant cotton was still in the doldrums, and the intentional planting area was also reduced compared with that in January. According to the survey data, 100 cotton planting households surveyed, totaling 620.3 mu of cotton in 2012, are now planting 534.1 mu in 2013, with a reduction of 86.2 Mu and a reduction of 13.9%. There were 43 households in the same area last year, accounting for 43% of the total number of households surveyed, and 10 households increased, accounting for 10%, but the increase was less than that of the total number of households. The total number of households was only 18.8 mu. The 47 households who reduced and quit cotton cultivation accounted for 47% of the total number of households surveyed, which increased by 4.5 percentage points compared with the survey in January. The total reduction in cotton area was 105 mu, and the weighted average reduction was widened by 2.78 percentage points in January. Accordingly, according to the statistical caliber of the county cotton association, the cotton planting area in the whole county will be reduced to 200 thousand mu in 2013, more than 30 thousand mu less than the actual area in the previous year, and it will become the least cotton area in the county since 1949.

 

Planting willingness survey: after the Spring Festival of 2013, the cotton association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative respectively conducted second surveys on cotton planting intentions in 12 provinces in the mainland and 2792 cotton farmers in 310 counties (cities and regiments) of Xinjiang autonomous region in 2013. The survey results show that: because the new year's policy of purchasing and storage has not yet been released, the cotton planting intention of cotton growers is still decreasing after the market downturn. As the spring sowing is approaching, most cotton farmers have arranged a cotton planting plan to reduce the number of farmers wandering around.

Among the 2792 cotton farmers surveyed, 27.7% of cotton growers were prepared to reduce cotton planting area, representing a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared with December. The cotton growers who accounted for 13.5% accounted for 1.5 percentage points higher than that in December, accounting for 52.2% in the same period last year, 8.2 percentage points higher than in December, 6.6% in wandering cotton, and 4 percentage points lower than in December. According to the weighted average calculation of cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the average planting intention of cotton growers in the whole country decreased by 6.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points over that of December. Based on the area of the association in 2012, it is estimated that the total area of cotton planting in China will be 68 million 160 thousand mu in 2013.

The the Yellow River River Basin has been severely damaged in recent years, and the cotton planting area of cotton growers has been decreasing year by year. As the Spring Festival just passed, most of the cotton farmers' intentions changed little. Only a few cotton farmers decided to change from wandering or flat to reducing the area, resulting in a continuous decrease in the February intention and the largest reduction in the catchment areas. In 2013, the intention dropped by 17.2%, and the decrease was 2.2 percentage points higher than that in December. The area of Henan, Hebei, Tianjin and Shanxi decreased by more than 20%. The cotton farmers who were prepared to reduce cotton planting area accounted for 42.7% of the surveyed cotton growers, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to December, 33.7% of the same as last year, a decrease of 1 percentage points compared with December, and 13.5% of the increase, which was basically the same as December. The number of wandering households accounted for 10%, which was 1 percentage points lower than that in December.

The cotton planting plan was basically established after the cotton growers in the Yangtze River Valley, and the number of wandering households decreased significantly. Most of them decided to reduce the area of cotton planting, and a small amount of decision area remained unchanged or increased, resulting in a decrease in the intention of planting cotton in the basin. The intention of planting cotton in the whole basin decreased by 6.1%, and the decrease was 2.4 percentage points higher than that in December. The area of most major production areas decreased by 3-8%. The cotton farmers surveyed were 57.4% of the same level as those of the previous year, 1.7 percentage points higher than that in December, 28.9% of cotton farmers who had reduced cotton planting area, an increase of 5.3 percentage points compared to December, and 11.8% cotton growers, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over December, and 1.9% percentage points less than that in December, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared with December.

Xinjiang cotton got a bumper harvest last year, most of the cotton was stored and stored, and the cotton farmers' income was relatively good. The cotton area kept stable and slightly increased, but the increase was less than that in December. According to cotton growers submitted cotton planting area calculation, cotton planting intention increased by 0.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points lower than in December. Most cotton farmers believe that the cotton yield is relatively stable, keeping the area unchanged or slightly increased. A few cotton farmers believe that the labor cost is too high, the labor shortage is lacking or the land needs rotation, which reduces the planting plan. Among the cotton farmers surveyed, 69.2% were the same as last year, 19 percentage points lower than in December, 15.2% for cotton growers to increase their area, 14 percentage points higher than in December, and 10.4% for cotton farmers, 3.5 percentage points higher than December and 5.2% for households.

US Department of Agriculture reports: in 2013, all cotton planting areas in the United States are expected to reach 10 million 26 thousand acres, and the actual planting area in 2012 is 12 million 315 thousand acres. For a relatively low level of history, farmers are transferring higher prices of grain. It is basically consistent with market expectations and keeps the government's previous estimates unchanged.

　 The second part: the macroscopic outlook of the trend of April.

There are reports in the monthly market that the open purchase and storage policy will continue to be implemented in 2013, which will continue the purchase and storage price of the previous year. At the same time, it is pointed out that the amount of reserve cotton will probably be enlarged to meet the end of the end of March. Spin Enterprise needs. At this point, the conjecture of the new year policy was finally settled.

The interpretation of the current policy is not difficult to find out that although the policy of purchasing and storage is still open in the coming year, it has limited influence on the futures market of Zheng cotton. Since April 1st, the amount of cotton reserves has been increased to meet the needs of enterprises, but the reserve cotton is only available for spot market circulation, and it is not allowed to register the warehouse receipts in the futures market, so it has little effect on the futures market of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The proposal that the Zhengzhou commodity exchange allow us cotton to make alternative delivery is still under discussion and has no effect on the existing contracts. Therefore, in a short period of time, the leading role of the policy has slightly weakened, and the Zheng cotton futures market is gradually closing to the market.

The third part: trend prediction.

Zheng cotton main contract 1309 in the policy of parallel collection and reunification has not done much, the overall market in the 19040 yuan / ton -20550 yuan / ton range shocks. At present, the main driving force behind the rising market price is the contradiction between the gap between positions and warehouse receipts. After the end of the purchase and storage, the market is very limited for the circulation of cotton, and the number of registered warehouse receipts is even more scarce. The contradiction between positions and warehouse receipts seems irreconcilable, but with the lessons learned from the previous CF1301 contracts, the Zhengzhou commodity exchange also collectively introduces the rules and regulations to restrict the market and defuse risks.

At home, the current main contract price in September is 20100-20500 yuan. Before the formal introduction of the policy, or when it comes to the policy of collecting and storing 20400 yuan, the uplink operation space is relatively limited, and the 1401 cotton contract can be considered to be more than 20000 yuan near the policy announcement. The domestic policy changes were closely watched in April.